2010, LeBron, Wade,.. and the Rockets Looking at worst case scenario, the league has given out these forecasts: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4312837 2010 FA, the Rockets would be: Scola and Lowry re-signed could leave around $10M of salary space. Rockets then have the option of also re-signing McGrady or to use the MLE on a free agent. They can't do both, while staying under the tax, without salary dumping Battier. Also their 2010 first round draft pick would add at least another million to their payroll. There's also the danger of a desperate team (Knicks) striking out in 2010 and overpaying for a player (McGrady). This free agency has been different to most simply because teams want to keep LeBron as an option as long as he's an option. It's either trading McGrady this upcoming season or basically standing pat in 2010. The Rockets may not have the cap space to go after LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Joe Johnson, etc... but they can still benefit from teams who can create the needed cap space with McGrady's expring contract. To play it safe, it would be best to trade McGrady, for an elite player at or under $10M plus expiring/s contract/s.
Would we give up Scola in a deal for Bosh? What kind of deal would you imagine going down? McGrady+Scola type of deal? Or maybe they would rather have Landry? Or both?
... not really relevant to this post, but entire thread; it's information from guys like you that has made me change clutchfans.com to my homepage.
I agree Yao shouldn't get the max; in fact, the only people i'd give max to is wade,lebron and howard. I don't like giving max to players that are already or near 30 (aka Yao, Kobe, etc...) However, there is no way he's gonna sign for 10mil. Big man are overpriced and you know it. I also doubt Scola will go for 6 mil.
It's not like this hasn't happened before. KG took a paycut. Shaq took a paycut AFTER he won a ring with the Miami heat. You're making a huge assumption that Yao and the Rockets can't possibly come up with a wink-wink deal. Since Yao is likely a Rocket for life, Les can always pony up plenty of money for Yao even when he's old and gone, simply by giving him something like a 5 yr/50 mil extension right before retirement, and then cut him.
man u do realise that would be suicidal in terms of cap flexibility with yao killing our salary cap space if he were to sign THAT deal when hes old and done
Considering the fact that "wink-wink" deals are illegal (although, I know people still do it), and the fact that Yao is a pretty stand-up guy (what trouble has he ever gotten into that we know of...and what about all those "Yao is too nice" comments we've heard for so long, etc.), you really think Yao would be willing to do something like this? I doubt it.
KG and Shaq had "grandfathered" deals that dated back to the prior CBA, and "max" extensions of those deals would have netted each of them in the $25-30M ranger PER SEASON. THAT is why they took a "pay cut". It was not some magnanimous gesture on their part. They needed to do it in order to allow their teams to add any talent whatsoever. Otherwise, they may have priced themselves out of the league (not really, but you get my drift). For Yao to get $18M per season would not NEARLY be on the same level as even the discounted salaries to which KG and Shaq ended up agreeing. Shaq's last extension (when he was already starting to decline) netted him $20-21M per season. KG's last extension (the third huge contract he's signed in his career) netted him $16-17M per season, but only after having had several seasons making $25M or so.
The amount is immaterial here. Yao is not as good as Shaq or KG, if you go by player abilities. And he does kill our ability to sign players if he demands the max. It's pretty weird how you're saying these are different situations, when they are actually more or less the same. Just on a smaller scale in Yao's case. I know KG and Shaq had ridiculous contracts. But it's not like they weren't justified in making that money. Shaq, for example, took a 5 year contract from Miami when it was clear he wouldn't be worth $20 mil in those last years(like he is right now). I'm more or less proposing the same thing for Yao right now, at a lesser salary. Well, it won't be the first time a team has killed it's future cap for a chance for a championship. And it won't be the last. Not to mention, the Rockets have no capspace in the near future anyway if we sign a superstar. So Yao's salary will affect the luxury tax moreso than the cap itself. It's not illegal. I use "wink-wink" more because Yao basically takes deferred payment on his salary rather than getting everything now. The contract's legit regardless.
Actually, there's a specific rule in the NBA salary cap to prevent that type of contract. It's known as the "over 36 rule". Coon's FAQ has a good explanation of how it works.
What do you mean, "The amount is immaterial here"??? We're talking about the freakin' SALARY CAP. Amounts are ALL that matters. Sure, KG and Shaq have been better players than Yao. But a healthy (yes, a big if) Yao over the next 5-6 years is arguably better than Shaq over the lifespan of his current contract. Regardless, Yao's salary would probably be less than $20M per, anyway. Another factor is that the salary cap was LOWER when KG and Shaq signed their deals, so the impact those deals had on their respective teams' salary cap was greater than a max deal to Yao would be. Plus, if the cap goes down significantly next year, and since the max salary is a function of the salary cap, the Rockets may end up locking Yao in at the "lowest max" possible, assuming that league revenues pick up again by 2011-12. I think I've already made myself clear that Yao is "worth" the max to Les Alexander, despite him not necessarily being a "max-caliber" player on the court. And the difference between the max salary and Yao's "true worth" is not THAT great. A couple of million bucks, tops, given the premium on skilled big men. That couple of million will not screw over the Rockets' ability to acquire/retain talent to any material degree. In fact, his presence will likely enhance the team's ability to acquire talent (with the allure of Chinese endorsement deals given to even middling NBA players) and will obviously enhance the team's bottom line, enabling Les Alexander and Daryl Morey to use cash in deals, including the purchase of multiple high second round draft picks.
first of all, we're two years away from yao being a free agent (assuming he picks up his player option next summer). since he's not playing this year, his worth will be determined by how he performs as a 30 year old giant coming back from a serious foot injury which kept him from playing for over a year. he may not be the dominant player we think he will be. if that's the case, i don't think anyone will offer him the max. if he comes back at full strength, well then he deserves the max. seriously considering our opposition here, who in their right mind would offer the max to a 31 year old player with a history if serious injury? i think if he performs well then les would gladly show loyalty and pay yao. i'm just not sure how many other teams will take the risk. secondly, i agree with what Meh is trying to say. less money over more years is a win win for both parties. however, as SamCassell pointed out the "over 36 rule" closes that loop hole. but for the rockets and yao, does it really prevent deferred payment? yao just turned 29. next year when he's ready for his comeback, he will be 30. he will become a free agent in the summer of 2011, just months before his 31st birthday. forgive me for using rough estimates: lets say yao wants a 4 year extension, starting at about $18M with max 10% raises. his salary would be - $18M, $19.8M, $21.7, $23.8, total of $83.3M. now, if you spread that total over the course of 5 years (rather than 4) as a base salary contract (so yao doesn't take a huge paycut in the first year, and the rockets aren't handcuffed in the last year), the salary becomes $16.7M. the contract would also expire when yao is 35 since the off season starts months before his 36th birthday, bypassing the "over 36 rule." personally i don't see this solution helping, but it is possible. the rockets are only going to be contenders in the early years, and not much money is saved then. the big difference in salary comes later when it probably doesn't matter. better to end the contract earlier in order to rebuild.
We are not getting any good free agents next season. I don't think we are able to get any stars on this team for a long time. I doubt Morey is able to find us a savior. We are probably going to stick with Brooks, Scola, Battier and the rest of the squad.
