I was reading a draft thread in a magic blog about their thoughts on their picks and saw some interesting perspectives about their thoughts on our players as well. ------- "Valid concerns if roster remains fully intact.. Including Dwight waking up tomorrow and signing an extension and Ryan agreeing to sign with us for much less than market price. The reality is that those two things probably aren’t happening. The ball is in Dwight’s court, as it’s always been, on an extension and that doesn’t seem to be coming. That’s step one and it looks imminent. If he’s gone, Ryan doesn’t enjoy the lax defense he became accustomed to, and isn’t worth the big contract someone will want to give him without Dwight on the court too. This gives us another 4 and 5 to replace, let’s call them, the inevitably departed. How would you feel about this draft if we ended up doing Lowry/Lamb/White/Jones/Salary matches for Dwight/Hedo? I think that’s a good haul, it creates space for these guys to play and really addresses our wing problem, while installing a better pg than meer at a better value than meer,for the next few years. Let meer walk, look to eventually sign Lowry long term, work with a youthful roster next year and build with cap space and an assortment of solid youth." "Jj has a year left...With a team option that we seem destined to take... Maybe jrich could go to the rockets too. If they include Martin and scola to match salary we could move jrich or jj with his 1 year left along with. Taking back 6 players in a trade is a little ridiculous but if Houston will take Hedo/jrich(jj)/duhon I’d trade for those 6 for our four (minus Ryan and meer to FA).. Martin and scola would be off the books soon and we’d get to target a blue chip FA. The other trade options are much less exciting and moldable to me. Bynum for Dwight seems a straight swap although I know we’d shed at least hedo’s contract in the process. And just forget about the nets package. This is the one I want, in some capacity, although Bynum wouldn’t thoroughly disappoint me the way the nets package would." "I like this potential depth chart a lot more.. Pg Kyle Lowry, FA Sg Kevin Martin, JJ, Lamb SF Terrence Jones, Royce White Pf Scola, Nicholson C Davis, O’Quinn That goes 10 deep, you’ve got some flexible players, Martin and scola are gonna be in the mix for salary match purposes and you let your rookies grow in the 2nd unit together. Only thing missing is a backup PG. Only reason I start jones is for his d, white could gave a harden impact off the bench and lamb coming off the bench with our other two rookies would be firepower. We would be a mess of a team for awhile but that’s a roster with a high ceiling. I don’t see any other way for us to get so loaded with youth and cap space. This is a true reset in 2 years, you ditch the rookie contracts that didn’t pan out, let the big money walk and go to bat with Lowry, the rookies you choose to extend and tons of cap for free agents. It’s a tough pill to swallow but unless Dwight stays a rebuild is imminent. If we deal for Bynum we still have a major wing problem. This trade really solidifies the wing positions, our draft bolstered our frontcourt, and Lowry is a PG to bank on in the future I believe. I see this as BPA but I also can’t help but be optimistic that hennigan was instructing Houston to pick guys who fit our post-Dwight roster. That’s exactly what their picks did, fill our need for small forwards, shot-creators and distributors. Ours replaced two guys who seem as out-the-door as any two guys in the NBA. Someone will overpay Ryan and this draft tells me we either don’t care or that there is genuinely no rhyme or reason to our selections. I could believe it’s option B after seeing the definitive way that Hennigan cleaned house so I think he was fortunate that our in-house BPA aligned with the picks he’d clued Houston in to. Let Ryan, meer and Dwight go, usher in the youth movement and rid ourselves of as many bad contracts as possible in the process. I do think o’quinn can eventually be a capable starting center based on defensive prowess and range, but we would be ugly in the post immediately following this deal. Still think it’s the best option we have besides Dwight long-term." "Mess of a post.. I cant believe option B is the case, rather than could believe. If hennigan was drafting for us by proxy of Houston, I’m happy with the haul. Let’s make the deal happen already now. It really does fill every position 1-5 if we deal for that package combined with our draft. Some real young guns and some college seniors. Good crop of talent." "So considering there was no trade with Houston tonight with picks for Howard, and with us drafting bigs instead of a PG... wonder if Hennigan is thinking that, since Houston probably isn’t going to give up, that maybe a K. Martin and Lowry with some picks perhaps will be there in the future since they are looking to off load both of them. Would give us our PG, adds a SG making Reddick available to be cut."
This is pretty insightful stuff from magic fan. Unfortunately, it's hard to even think about because there's absolutely no indication that this is a possibility.
Hennigan has an interesting situation facing him over the next 2 days. I would think the smart thing for him to do is to fly to Cali and meet Dwight either today or tomorrow. Because once Sunday gets here, DWill can sign anywhere he wants. IF DWILL COMMITS TO BROOKLYN and Dwight hasn't either signed an extension with Orlando or been traded, THEN it becomes much more difficult to get max value for Dwight. I would think Morey would start to pull in his horns on a Dwight trade, not being willing to give up quite so much and take back quite so much trash...as the odds then become much greater that Dwight will indeed walk away after one year. Hennigan has to understand this. Hennigan is staring down the barrel at a trade with us right now and he's staring down another barrel of possibly not having a trading partner willing to dance with him outside of Brooklyn come Sunday morning.
I said this before but Hennigan is all of 30 yrs old. Not that he isn't bright(I have no idea), but whenever I see someone move through the ranks that young(who isn't a former player) I think they got there because of nepotism not because they are a brilliant mind. That's just how the NBA is. With that in mind, I'm skeptical that he is thinking several steps ahead on this one.
I don't understand why we want to gut the team for a rental. If hard headed self says he's not going to resign, then he's not going to resign. So why gut out worth of "assets" for a one year rental? would much rather have jsmith for rest of his career.
Maybe a dumb question. Id DWill commits to Brooklyn this Sunday, do they have the ability to sign Howard straight up at the end of the 2013 season?
He's 30 and has been an NBA GM for all of a month now. It's completely within the realm of possibility that he is completely overwhelmed and is missing subtle points like this. Not trying to kid myself at all. Even experienced GMs make boneheaded moves by missing opportunities to flip an asset - why would you think this kid would be different?
Another thing to think of, with Dwight coming off of his first major injury of his career he dosen't seem to worried about signing a long term contract. Doesn't look like he will sign in Orlando and we keep on hearing how he doesn't want to sign longterm here. He must be pretty confident that his back will be back to 100% with no lingering issues if he's willing to play out this last year.
Yes. In my humble opinion, if DWill signs there before Dwight is traded, then Dwight is most likely going to walk to Brooklyn in a year. Brooklyn can go to the lottery, get a good lottery pick, keep Brook Lopez and Marshon Brooks(or trade them for better fitting pieces), re-sign Wallace, and have a ready-made contender for Dwight to sign with after next season. Dwight will be giving up $57 million dollars over the next 10 years by not signing a birds rights maximum extension. But, I think the lure of Brooklyn and DWill will overcome that. This is why I keep saying, Morey is willing to go balls to the wall right now to get Dwight as long as DWill is still free. However, Morey and everybody else knows that if DWill re-signs in Brooklyn, it's kinda like getting the wheelbarrow going off-center. It becomes much more difficult to convince Dwight to stay when he can see a ready made situation to contend with one of his buds. Hennigan has to know this too. He knows that if DWill re-signs in New Jersey that his trading options for Dwight go down to nil. And this is why I will be mildly surprised if Dwight isn't traded by tomorrow at midnight.
It's easy to sit back and concede to Orlando anything they want for Dwight, but in those trade scenarios I have to feel like the Rockets would not be willing to accede to all the demands. I mean, what's the point of trading 3-6 guys on both sides if we're basically going to end up with Orlando's roster from last year and they will end up with ours? They won't be happy with Scola and Martin because they're trying to rebuild, and we won't be happy taking on JJ, Jason Richardson, and Duhon because it would just be Dwight's same crappy pupu platter supporting cast coming here with him. He would have no reason to want to stay in Houston because it would be just like Orlando. Obviously, you look at the McGrady trade, and there are going to most likely be deadweight contracts that accompany Dwight on his way out. But it's going to have to be a bit more balanced. For example, Kevin Martin is someone who has no value to them but could really shine playing next to Dwight. We HAD a great expiring in Dalembert, but now we have a couple guys from that deal who are waive-able that they could easily take back. For value, of course they can get Lowry and 3 of the 6 guys we drafted the past two years (I would personally withhold D-Nuts still), plus some combination of future draft pick compensation. Never will be as good as what we could have given them last night, but three out of Parsons Morris Lamb White and Jones should still be really nice to have. To make salaries match, I'm guessing we'll have to include one of Scola or Martin, but I think Martin's an expiring and Scola's got two years left before it goes to team options so that's not too bad. Overall it's not a superb haul, but what do you expect when a.) you didn't make a move before the draft, and b.) you waited until your superstar convinced the world he was not going to resign with anyone but New Jersey next offseason? I'm confident no one's going to offer better than us for a rental situation.
Oh, we're not going to concede everything Orlando wants. Because what Orlando would want would be to be rid of Hedo/JRich/BigBaby/Duhon/QRich all at the same time they move Dwight. We ain't taking all those guys. Perhaps JRich and Duhon. But not all of them. And on our end, I suspect our unmovable peices are Parsons and one PF, probably Motie. By the way, http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=6962006&postcount=1 61 views and nary a response yet.
Jopat ... one of the few posters still postin logic and not knee-jerk hatred... I would rep if i could...
The more i think about the more it intrigues me why Morey would go balls out at getting Howard. It seems to me that most likely DWill is going to sign with the Nets regardless of where Howard is rented for a year and hoping for the extremely likely case that Howard would join him after one season. The only loser in here is us, wasting all of our "assets" and Orlando benefiting from the whole thing.
No one is going to offer up more than we are... atleast in terms of what is to believed the direction of rebuild they are going... now if they wanna stay relevant lakers have best package if they are willing to take a flyer or could get a dwight extension commitment... The thing is nets are helping us in our pursuit... they have absolutly no valuable trade pieces... dallas doesnt either... the GM is gotta realize his best chance at a decent deal is before FA starts... because once it does rockets will slowly start backing out... If dwill resigns with the nets i believe morey will back out and realize its a dead cause because dwight will walk to brooklyn... If dwill on the other signs with dallas morey would stay in the hunt but wont offer up as much because its still a rental but resigning him with the lure of attracting dwill goes away... of course it ups our chance.of resigning him also because what other team will he goto? I believe their GM is smart, you dont become a GM at 30 by being dumb, and realizes this... if he doesnt do this deal soon he could potentially end up with 10cents to the dallar value from nets if dwill chooses to resign...
What I don't quite understand is why Houston thinks it's worth the risk of holding onto Dwight for a season but Orlando doesn't. If Morey doesn't think Howard will walk away from the extra contract money, why wouldn't Orlando? I would like to think that Houston is smart but are they really just desperate at this point? I just don't see how Orlando willingly trades us Dwight without saddling us with other contracts like Hedo because if they leave us with cap room and we go out and sign another star then we make Orlando look like complete idiots if Dwight does indeed stay. So far, we haven't seen any stars walk away from their teams, just a bunch of front offices getting bluffed into trading their stars. Point is, we really have to overwhelm Orlando with a trade package to convince them that simply holding onto Dwight isn't worth the risk. For better or worse, I'm not sure Morey is willing to give THAT much up for a rental.
