I don't see that happening, unless Harden is injured or something happens with the roster that drastically increases the scoring opportunities for Lin. Adding a player that will take more shots can create open shots for others, but it generally doesn't create more shots for others. For example, in the case of Dwight Howard, Omer Asik takes 7.5 shots a game and 3.6 free throws a game. Howard is 10-13 shots a game and 10 free throws per. There are a finite number of possessions and the Rockets already played at a league-leading pace... that's not likely to increase with Dwight. You know how I know you're a LOF? Because you keep calling people "LOHs".
Lin is likely to average 15 and 7 next year especially if we get Howard on the team. If you really think about how Lin could become more consistent and not pull off 4 point games ( which he did many many times this season), his averages will definitely go up and he would be worth the 8 mil in due time.
If Jeremy can average 14-15 points and 7-8 assists next year with a better 3 point percentage I would be happy with that given his contract. For those saying he could average 17 points and 8 assists or whatever, that is what most first option PGs average and Lin will not be a first option. He will likely be a third option next year or maybe even 4th depending who we get at the forward and center positions.
I'm expecting around 15-7. Better shooting will increase his scoring average. I'll guess he shoots over 36% from 3, which would make me happy. He'll never become a star next to a guy like Harden. If he played on a no talent team, he might be able to become what he was in NY again, but who knows?
I assume that you are talking about the pts/game and not the assists/gm since you point out how a player like Howard will take more shots per game, which is part of how I explained in another post that his assists will probably rise. But my point is that I think he will get these numbers whether we get Howard or not, not only if we get Howard. To your other points, actually getting Howard should increase the number of shot attempts, if not the number of possessions, due to the fact that he catches and finishes better then Asik...i.e. less turnovers for the pg and more assists. ( I do love Asik though ) Also, as you pointed out very well, with a double team magnet like Howard, it is more likely to give Lin and others more open shots, so that while even if it doesn't increase the shot attempts, improving scoring another 2 points above his second half of the season stats is possible simply by shooting a better % because of more open shots. I do fully expect him to improve his shooting over the summer, especially since this is something he has stated he intends to work on. I haven't called any "specific" person a "LOH". I have simply pointed out that they exist, which is evident by some of the irrational dislike of a decent player who helped us finally get to the playoffs this year. I don't have a problem with anyone that finds legitimate faults with Lin's game, those faults exist....but some faults exist for every player on our team. I'm not a LOF because I am a Houston Rockets fan first and foremost! I have been since 1986, and I will continue to be long after Lin no longer plays for this team, whether that comes next season or 10 seasons from now. So no, I'm not a LOF.
He averaged 15 and 6 the second half of this season. So adding two more points per game and 2 more assists per game in his second full season to what he was doing for the whole second half of the season is not delusional to me. He has a whole off season to improve his game and knows much better what to expect now that he has played his first full season as a starter, and a full season with Harden. That's why I said many on this site will be eating crow next year. They just don't see it because of their dislike/hate of Lin for whatever reason.
I don't disagree, but how many of those do we actually have the slightest chance of getting? In no particular order: Chris Paul Grieves Vasquez Jrue Holiday Kemba Walker Chris Paul Russel Westbrook Tony Parker Mike Conley Steph Curry Ty Lawson Damian Lillard Ricky Rubio Derron Williams Derrick Rose Rajon Rondo Kyle Lowry Kyrie Irving John Wall This is more than 14, but it just proves how likely we are to still have Lin starting next year because just about none of these guys are going anywhere. CP3 is a maybe on moving teams, and I would love him to come here but it's not likely.
17 and 8 is not what top tier players average. They average 20 plus points a game and if a top tier pg, over 10 assists per game. 17 and 8 is what you need from a third option on a team to average to contend. I think he can give us that, especially with our high scoring average as a team, which I expect us to maintain. Lin is not going to turn into Rondo. His first step is too good to not be in attack mode a good percentage of time for our team. Although we are mostly focusing on adding big men possibly to our team, no matter who we get, I wouldn't expect us to become an inside out team like we were with Hakeem. Not with Harden and Lin as our starting back court. If anything getting someone like Howard will just open up the lane more for Lin and Harden and give them more open outside shoots when Howard gets double teamed...imho.
If we land Howard he is not going to average 17 pts a game. Harden, Howard and most likely Parsons will be ahead of him as scoring options. The assists on the other hand I can see. My guess would be 12 and 9 for lin if we land Dwight. That's not hate, it's just realistic, there just aren't teams whose 4th leading scorer averages 17 a game.
You make an excellent point here. Sure we would take some other pgs over Lin, but as you point out, most of them are NOT available as an option. There is no one other than CP3 that we have a remote chance at that would be better than Lin. That's why I don't understand all the hate towards him.
That's fine to make such a prediction, but IMO your qualifiers made it weak. Especially the one about Lin will average more assists of Omer can develop better hands. What a cop out. Now, when he doesn't average 8 assists per game, you can easily say "Well, Asik fumbled away too many would-be easy baskets!!! Otherwise, he woulda done it!" Personally, I don't care how many assists per game Lin averages. He is, IMO, a pretty good and willing passer, so I trust he'll get a good number of assists relative to his usage. I just hope he's able to play more like he did in the second half of the season and improve his defense. Beyond that, anything else is gravy. But this is coming from someone who thinks his ceiling is far less than some others think (I've seen others think he's comparable to Hall of Famers!). So if Lin plays like he did during the second half of the season, and if we acquire a legit 2nd star, we'll be OK.
I understand your point and think you make a valid good argument. Although I could see the possibility of Parsons scoring going down and him focusing more on his defensive skills as he did in his first season. I think Parsons was sort of forced to step up this season as a scoring option as the team really needed it. But I think he would be more valuable to us as a serious defensive wing stopper that you can't leave because he can hit that open 3 or pass you by to take it to the rack if you slack off of him. Either way, we win as a team. And that's what I care about most!
I understand your points, although I am not looking to blame Asik if Lin's assist numbers don't go up. I do believe that Asik will improve though, just like I think Lin will improve. It was both of their first full season as a starter. I see them both as dedicated players that want to improve and have the drive to do it. So I believe that Asik alone will get Lin one more assist per game next year because Asik will naturally improve over the off season. I could be wrong, and if I am, I won't blame Asik for Lin's numbers.
Unless his role in the team is changed and playing time increases, I don't think he will average 19/8 next season, especially assists. His ppg will increase due to better shooting and maybe a couple of more attempts per game. His assists will not increase much, but he can reduce TOs, which will bring assist/TO ratio up. My prediction next season if he stays with Rockets: 16/6 with 2.5 TOs, 47% overall, 37% from 3s. Those are very good numbers and everyone should be happy with those numbers.
You are right in that we should all be happy if he puts out those numbers. But I actually think he has a higher chance of his assists going up than his points, but I think his points will too for the reasons you state. I agree with you on the turnovers, although I personally don't think they were too bad this year, but improvement will help. I think his biggest challenge will be to improve his defense to stay on the floor longer. Although I don't think Beverley will take over his starting job, he could definitely take away from his minutes if Lin's on the ball defense doesn't improve more.
