Lot of people doubted the small ball coming into playoff. In particular, what if we all of sudden gone cold shooting. Yes and it happened last night where we didn’t score for a stretch of 4-5 minutes 7-8 possessions. We lucked out that OKC didn’t score much in those periods to build a buffer. We definitely cannot afford to have too many of those periods. But let’s take a sample of 10 hypothetical normal possessions against a conventional team that mix 2s and 3s. Let’s say that team scored 3 times on 2 points and twice on 3 points in the 10 possessions totaling 12 points, which seems typical and good. Essentially 1.2 points per possession, not bad. On the other hand if we make only three 3s in those 10 possessions, we are 9 points v 12, we are still in it. And if we make four 3s we are even. See this is the math of our style. If we go to the line or score on 2 points at the rim in those possessions we will do better. We actually do not need to make a lot of 3s. The key then is how we limit the other side defensively. In this series, our defense has worked really well. But if we want to win it all, we will still have to see how we fair with the lakers, bucks, and or the clippers. To me defense is gonna be the real key (not necessarily the makes of 3s) and I am not so sure like some other said we necessarily want to face the lakers and in particular Anthony Davis in the second round.
1st half of game 2 OKC shot 50% from the field, and 33% from 3...they also went 11-13 from the free throw line Rockets shot 35% from the field, and 29% from 3...we went 5-5 from the free throw line OKC finished the half only up by 6 Rockets math in a nutshell
and the 17-0 stretch finally came to put the game away. can we do this to the lakers ... especially AD can sink 3s and grab offensive boards. I think it will be very tough. If it comes down to we will have to shoot exceptionally well in 4 games to win, that to me is not the strength of small ball
The key too our small ball and constantly defending and pushing the pace when available is that it wears them out. It’s hard for non athletic guys like gallo and Adams and even cp3 at his old age to constantly defend the perimeter all game. They can’t just rest in the paint with the ball constantly moving around. There will eventually be a crack in their defense and by the fourth quarter they are tired....even more so with Westbrook....that’s the great thing about letting Gordon, house, rivers, Ben mac, and even green bring the ball up. It doesn’t have to be harden. We’re not slowing down and letting them take plays off and catch their breath... I don’t even worry about AD and LeBron... lets just see how long they can run and keep it up without fatigue or an injury....I am hoping Portland takes them to seven.....they’ll be toast for sure by the time we see them.
main thing I fear with the Lakers is the refs LA is in a similar mold to OKC...they don’t take or make a lot of threes...u can pack the paint and swarm Lebron and AD...AD and Bron will get theirs, but a lot of their guys will be unplayable I don’t see how u can trot out the likes of McGee, Howard, Caruso, Rondo if he gets back, JR, and Waiters...Kuz is also suspect against the Rockets...that’s pretty much half their roster
I fear AD the most and a little bit of Kuzma. If AD starts doing whatever he wants on us, out math will have to be increase the 3p percentage to best them. It will be really tough. I am not really all that worried about LeBron because of the defensive scheme you mentioned can work against him, but I am no so sure about AD. In fact, I will say AD is our biggest obstacle this year to the ring.
AD will get his 30 in some games, but Idk, his impact doesn’t match his stats IMO Lakers always suck when Bron is off the floor, and he consistently doesn’t show up in 4th quarters I like our chances with him, especially when we don’t have to worry about the Lakers shooters and are able to congest the paint
I predict Adams minutes will either be significantly reduced for someone like Bazley or not played at all going forward in this series. Adams at this point is a big net disadvantage for them for the 8 points 10 boards he brings. He mess up a lot of things for them, kinda like Clint.
I think so too. Bazley has been their best shooter. Adams is like a statue defensively. He keeps getting stuck defending out on the perimeter where he gets blown by extremely easily, and when he’s at the rim, he’s still certainly no Gobert when it comes to contesting or altering shots.
We do the same thing to AD as we do to every other big. We make him almost unplayable since we put him on Isolation island with Harden and Westbrook. That is why we have destroyed the Lakers this year and the Pelicans when he was there. The game they beat us this year, AD was out with an injury. You can't beat us with bigs, you can only beat us with wings which is why crappy teams seem to do better against us than big teams.
Certainly we do. I remember the first game after we traded away CC for RoCo, we threw them off balance. That said, to me, AD poses a serious challenge. Their other bigs would be pretty much like Steven Adams, taking out of the equation easily, but not AD. That man can "fly" to cover/help. Granted, Lakers don't have much perimeter defense, so that could be an advantage to us. Interesting question ... do you want to see Russ drive while AD/DH/McGee is guarding the rim?
Anthony Davis is fool's gold. Puts up crazy stats but really doesn't help his team win much. https://www.landofbasketball.com/games_between/anthony_davis_vs_james_harden.htm
AD most overrated player in league. He’s terrible at kicking out. Basically just a guy who shoots long turn around fade-away. Why would you be scared of a guy taking the most inefficient shot in the game over and over again. If he plays big he will be hurt by the 3rd game of the series cuz historically he’s been made of glass. Heck he almost injured himself last night just running into the goal in a game they were up 25. Not to mention there is no way he has the stamina to dominate our style consistently for more than 20 minutes a game. Cuz they will put him on Westbrook and he can not run with Westbrook. The only thing I fear about the Lakers is the zebras. They will be out in full effect.
I’ve worked it out over a year ago: “The Steph Curry 64% left 3 vs 98% LeBron dunks” Rockets keep opponents PIP (points in the paint) under 70% (FG%) Rockets hit 34% (3P%) or greater Equates to winning more times than not. I posted in the past that Harden/CP3 (now Westbrook) Pts/FT’s negate opponents having a field day putting up layups and/or put-backs......as long as the opponents are held to under 70% PIP. “2’s” vs 3’s” preaching I keep bringing up. Works until teams start catching on & begin jacking up 45 x 65 three’s a game. I like the Rockets chances this year to win the championship because teams that put up that many threes are doing something out of their norm. Dallas has an ability to match our three’s but I think Harden/Westbrook > Doncic/Porzingis....and our defense has less holes. Wolf-pack defense can overcome the weakness at the rim. Enough to keep them under 70%. Clippers/Lakers 3-pt shooting isn’t up to par. Both will need to keep us under 105 points. Teams that shoot about 45 to 65 threes and 18+ threes (34% or greater) made tend to score 115 to 120 points a game. Heat are my sleeper team out of the East. Refs as usual will be a deciding factor. Not calling fouls on opponents as Westbrook and Harden drive......allowing teams/players to encroach on our jump shooters landing spots. Allows teams to guard our three-pt shooters closer than the rule allows.
Agree. Heat and Raptors are best most balanced teams in the East. But Rockets are going all the way. Some teams may have the shooting to keep up, some teams might have the defense. There are zero GSW dynasty teams in NBA now that can do both. The 65 win team was a CP3 hammy away from defeating the greatest NBA team ever assembled. This bubble Rockets team is better than that 65 win team. Better defensively, all 9 guys in rotation can switch. Especially dominant in clutch time. Better 3ball, 65 win team relied on Harden and/or CP3 to win every night. 8 guys can shoot 3ball on this team vs. 6 on 65 win team. This team is all in on 3P shooting, 50+ every game. Better pace, not even close. Even without Russ. Better efficiency. Russ and Green are more efficient around the rim than Clint ever was. More ballhandlers at nonguard positions equal less turnovers. Better TOV. Rockets only team with 2 of top 3 steals leaders. 3 guys in top 15 (Harden, RoCo, Russ). And Rockets do not turn ball over. Better chemistry. This team LOVES playing for each other, MDA, Morey, the city of Houston. And we can all see it.
Excellent stuff. I will also add the evolution of Harden. Last game was case in point ... in the past, in a game like this where he was the only superstar, he would shoot at least shoot 30 times and turn the ball over a lot. It would be his dribbling fest to force it. BUT in yesterday's game, he didn't even bring the ball up the court. Jeff Green did it. He stuck to the plan and only took 16 shots. No Turn OVER. Just wow. I love this version of Harden. This is the Harden that can take us home.
Agreed, if not for shooting funk in 2nd quarter Harden would have had 20 assists instead of 9. Harden has bought into defense, pace, team ball, heck any role he needs to take to get the W. This James Harden is the most dangerous James Harden we have ever seen.
You can tell that he is bought into setting up the table for others to make his game easier mantra. He played off ball w/o Russ. That's just such a welcoming sign. Then, he took it over when he needed to. That's the killer and winner.
I agree, Miami with Dragic/Butler have enough with Small-Ball talent around them to get out of the East... But Dragic can be gently hip checked into the 5th row on every drive. He will be done by the 3rd game in the legs. Then it will come down to Butler vs tandem of Harden/Westbrook. Rockets role players slightly better than the sum of the Heat role players. Toronto, I like Siakam/Ibaka.....not so much Lowry/VanVleet vs Harden/Westbrook matchup point for point.
