Probably a dumb strategy since it kills any chances in transition for them. Obviously its fine if Omer gets super clanky, but considering how much everyone not named KD was struggling in the half court, its not worth just giving up 1.1 PPP
OK I have seen this work but usually with a couple of minutes left in a game. It worked earlier this year once when Asik was put on the line and he missed most of them. This time he came through. Also as said earlier Asik seems to have grown a huge pair of cajones.
I was surprised by the strategy considering how poorly the Rockets had executed down the stretch the past few games. It seemed like OKC basically bailed the Rockets out. They also kept doing after getting within 6 points - not really sure why. RE: the math, You have to factorin the clock and outside shooting. I think Brooks probably felt like the Rockets were hitting outside shots (40%), and fouling Asik would add more possession to the game for OKC. So: With HackAsik: 1:20 seconds go off the clock HOU: 1/2 ft, 1/2 ft, 1/2 ft, 1/2 ft....used 20 seconds of clock total OKC: Durant jumper, durant jumper, missed jumper, missed jumper...use 1 minute of clock Without HackAsik: 2:20 seconds go off the clock HOU: made layup, missed jumper, missed jumper, 1/2 ft....used 1:20 seconds off the clock total - 3 points OKC: Durant jumper, durant jumper, missed jumper, missed jumper...use 1 minute of clock So worst case scenario they trade a few points for time. But Asik made his free throws and OKC didn't execute well on offense. Still, not what I would've done considering how the Rockets had fared down the stretch the previous three games.
You use the statistics and home crowd to your advantage but in this case, Asik didn't choke and pulled through.
I really think it helped us. Asik's FT really iced the game when we had no offensive flow in the fourth quarter. Had Thunders just played solid defense, we would have bricked three pointers to give away the game.
Statistically it does not make sense to foul a 56% free throw shooter 15 times. His sample size would be large enough to likely allow him to get his average 56%, which means you've allowed the Rockets to do the same thing as shoot 56% from two point land.
You do realize more than a quarter of Harden's shots come from 3 point land right? I would get your point if you said on 2 pointers.
You are assuming all possessions are equal, though. A possession where you have to inbound the ball full-court and the defense is set is a lot worse than one where you rebound the basket and try to score in transition. When you see teams make big comebacks, it's because they get stops and score quickly in transition (due to the stops). This works even if teams try to stall because in around a minute, a team can make up 6-9 points this way.
The problem for the FT shooting team (in this case, our team) is that, while Asik can shoot > 50% in FTs (effectively shooting > 50% FG), the opposing team (OKC) may shoot below 50% but have more attempts (ie, rebounds, putbacks, 2nd chance points). Say, after Asik makes 1 out of 2 FTs, OKC could have missed their next shot on their next possession but can still rebound the ball 3x and make the basket on the fourth try. So, their FG% is only 25%, but they still got 2 points out of that single possession. The way to counter that, is defense and defensive rebounding. If we can only allow the OKC 1 shot for every possession, and Asik makes 1 out of every 2 FT, then we're good. Good thing the Rockets did just that.
Hacking a 56% FT shooter is not like having the other team shoot 56%. It's like having the other team shoot a TS% of .56. Harden, for example, has a TS% of .600. Meaning that if he shoots the ball, the Rockets have scored .6 points per possession once you incorporate FTs and 3 pointers. That said, to me it also doesn't make sense. Assuming Asik makes 56% of his FTs, that' 1.12 points per possession. The Rockets don't even score that much on average, including fast breaks. I'm certain it's much lower than that in a half court offense, more so when playing against an above average defensive team like the Thunder.
Add Asik was having a huge affect on the basket and protecting it well. If he had started to miss the FT's then Mchale would have had to call timeout and pull Asik and the basket would have been less defended. Brooks tried to force Mchales hand. Luckily Asik made more FT's than expected and got to stay in and help secure the win.
Even better. You let the Rockets become more efficient offensively as one poster has already pointed out in this thread. Plus you take away any chance the Rockets go into a slump offensively. Brooks simply made the sample size too large. The house always wins!!!
Mathematically, it's OK. Asik shot 56% on FTs for the year, but he shot 47% on the road vs. 62% at home. http://espn.go.com/nba/player/splits/_/id/3414/omer-asik So, if you think he was going to shoot 47% or so-- or possibly get nervous because it's a close-out game in the playoffs and miss more than his share, it's not a horrible bet. Another factor was that doing this saves OKC time-- up to 24 seconds every HOU offensive possession, so it's more possessions for OKC to close the gap (I think they were down 8 or 10 with 5:20 left when it started). One thing I wonder about: Does getting to shoot 10+ straight FTs in a roll help a guy get a better rhythm and get more accurate on his shots. In a normal game, Asik can go, say, an hour in real time without attempting a FT. Tonight, he goes about 30 seconds between FTs in the 4th. TV commentators always talk about how a guy like Dwight or Shaq could shoot 70%-80% FTs in practice, does Hack-a-Asik make it more like practice, when he gets to shoot a bunch of FTs in a row?
I think it's a BS strategy... and I thought the same exact thing when the strategy worked for the Rockets against Dwight. I'm ecstatic that Asik shoved it right back in their face. If Smith is anywhere near the court in the last 7 minutes of the 4th quarter, then McHale needs to be fired on the spot.
yeah i understand the reason behind it, but they did it too much to the point to where it started to hurt them. that AND you have to be able to score on the other end every play for the momentum to change in your favor.
I'm not sure if I did, but I meant to point out that it is the same as a 56% shooter from 2 point land and a TS% of 56% overall, which I will take all day every day.
It did work when they brought it down to 6-7 points, but for some reason they kept going. They still had 3:30+ left. Good for us that brooks isn't that good of a coach that he let asik get into rhythm. Hacking is supposed to get you back into games not win them.
