To all, There is something else that has not been discussed in this thread whatsoever.....cost of goods sold. Meaning, players salaries are not the only cost borne by the organization. We have a rather extensive payroll beyond our players. We also have substantial operating costs to bare. Plane flights, scouting, utilities, supplies, rent, capital items, etc., etc. This list of expenses is significant. This is why profit numbers are soooooo low relative to income. BRI addresses ticket sales, TV/advertizing revenue and merchandize sales. It does not address other income excluded from the CBA. This income is seen by the league owners as location specific.
If Rox is determined to use the MLE and split it on two veterans, then signing Posey means paying 9.8 mil next year (suppose the lux tax is enforced). Don't you consider that is too much price to pay? Whether it is better to keep Posey or get two vets using the MLE, we will have to see how the MLE is used. I want to see a better team and an exciting season as much as everyone. But I understand the effort from the management to maintain financial soundness.
Ham could hardly break the Atl's rotation, not a bad 10th hustle-foul guy on the roster but not much else. Harvey, I like him b/c of his youth (22?) but he does more bad on the floor for you than good right now. I'd like to have him for a mil though regardless of what happens with Posey though. IMO Harvey and the Dermarr Johnson are the two young FA swingmen out there with pretty good potential--but don't count on them majorly producing in the short term and like Boki they may never really produce, they are just flyers and you never know. Nailon plays no D and can't hit 3s, but he brings a lot more O than Hawk or TMo. Decent back-up for offense--but a very week starter in a pinch b/c of his D. Butler is still under contract I believe. Cheaney, redudent, like Pike he can't match up with bigger stronger 3s, except Pike is a better shooter and may also be a little stronger. Another guy out there is Adrian Griffin. A little bit stronger version of Hawkins is what I would call him, but like Hawk just isn't starting material and neither does a lot of the positive things Posey can do on the floor simply with his athleticism and length. Two more are Bryan Russell and J Jackson. Both have their problems (Russell shot far worse than Posey last year and just looks finished as a player; J Jackson has been a disruption to lots of teams and is Pike size for a 3 anyway). Further, why then would we have offered the full amount of the MCE (about what it would take to get a pair if vets like this) beteen two 32-33 year olds (Pike + BR/JJ) if that cost us the better player who is also younger (Posey is 26). In sum, no combination of Pike and one of these guys for 1-2 million (combined MLE level or no more than 1 mil less) IMO is worth losing Posey for. Now if we are going down this road, and most of ya'll know I hope we don't, the 2 best possibilities IMO are Pike and Demarr/Harvey. At least either of the latter has a chance to blossum into a good player for us over the long term. I'll say this, I don't think Memphis saw a better/more promising player left out there they might be able to land for the full MLE (Odom obviously could not be had for that price because LAC would then match and he is screwed), including S Jac where they also could have pressured a rival even higher on the food chain. I would rather have us match Memphis and have done nothing with our own MLE (Pike, some other vet for less than 2 mil) than to use the MLE for two vets but then let Posey walk b/c of price. And I like Pike--it is just he is going to be 33 by early next season and he really can't hang defensively with most of the league's starting 3s.
Desert Scar, there is something to argue that if you don't think Posey is worth close to $4.9m starting salary for what he can do to fix our serious flaws, then you simply don't match....Luxury Tax or not. We need a playmaker style guard/swingman. That player could be had some other way than via FA or maybe next year from an MLE. Don't just list us available FAs. You may want to reserve that $4.9m by not matching. You may want to use an MLE next year on someone--but fully utilizing your MLEs two years in a row can add up, quick. Point is, if your MO is to just go for best available every summer, or (worse) last available, then you end up with Maurice Taylor and Shandon Anderson, and miss out on Rashard Lewis. If you are trying to build a team, we need a playmaker or better PFs....those are the fits we need. We can survive at SF with a revolving door of Pikes and Walts 'till kingdom come, if Francis/Yao just improve, and Francis/Mobley seem to need some help via a guard mentor, right now... and knock down shooters, and some rebounders. Like I told Thanos. I'd match. But I also know Posey is no big answer to this team. Poseys of this league can be had easily, every year. You make it sound like it is some disaster to lose him. Looks like CD has other plans to me, and Posey just priced himself out. I don't buy the luxury tax preventing us from matching, but I also don't buy that it is the end of the world for not matching. This summer is not about Posey. It is about making Steve Francis and Yao Ming better.
HP, I do see your point and glad you popped even though your take is different from mine. But with the strategy you outline why bother with stop gaps like Pike (32) and another older vet (2 mil) that would almost take up the MLE all together over 3 years (basically tying up the same money as Posey except 1 year less) and then you also have two players with no hope of contributing 4-5-6 years down the line. Posey is 26, a with a little bit improvement in his 3 stroke (e.g., as other hard workers like Elie, Bowen, Christie have shown through their early 30s) you have anything but a dime a dozen player--but the real hard to find very quality all around role player. Instead of Pike and other 30+ guys, if saving salary short/medium term and seeking long term players are your strategies, just fill out your rosters with Tmos, Demarrs and Harveys on the very cheap and hope one of them or Boki becomes a long term answer at the 3 you are seeking. I just think protecting your 4th best player, who is 26, who is by far your best forward (physically and otherwise), and who seems to accept the role player mentality head on, for a market value contract is relatively low risk with a high probability of reward compared to most other options you get in this league. I guess time will tell if what we do was the right thing, but I'd hedge my money the team that gets Posey will be happy they did.
I think HP made a good point and I agree with: loosing Posey is not the end of the world. He is not a piece of the future that we have to "protect". We need to protect Yao and SF and everyone else is dispensable. And you can always find someone like Posey any year for the price Posey demands. Let's not to overstate how good Posey is. Better SFs are abundent and they aren't the hardest to get. If Nashbar and Hawk do the job then we are done, and I think they have the potential to get better. Adding Pike is great. From last season, we know we need a sharp shooter. This is crucial to the inside-out offense we plan to carry out. Yeah, Pike is older, but after three years, if he still shoots well (which is not affected by age that much), we can keep him cheap and use him as Kerr at Spurs. So it is not like Pike will only be a temporary fix for sure. A sharp shooter is something this team need for coming years. With money being a concern, and with the short roster we have, it makes sense to go for a few cheaper players rather than heavily invested on Posey alone.
But Pike still ties up 3 mil over 3 years--about 60% of what Posey does for those years. I don't have a big problem with the strategy of building for 4-5-6 years down the line--but then sign guys for even less money who could blossum into future starters like Demarr and Harvey, and maybe get yourself some lottery picks to boot. As we stand now we might be just good enough to make the playoffs only to obliterated in the 1st round because of our forward spots.
Desert Scar, What is your problem with veterans? We don't need anymore freaking youth movements. Nothing will improve this team more than making the damn playoffs. Contenders have a balance of youth and veterans. We don't. Your formula to make all decisions based on age is quite odd to me. We don't have a shortage of youth...not at all. Harvey probably isn't much better than Badiane...for instance. What a waste of money he would be. We don't need youth. I am tired of Kelvin Cato being the oldest guy for our continued building, and I am tired of Francis and Mobley thinking they are the leaders who know what to do. We need veterans to disagree with those guys, not Posey's or Demarrs who are best buds that rely on them for touches. We need a balanced lockerroom, balanced practices, and proven, hard working professionals who can demand respect, demand the team to follow a game plan, and demand the freaking ball out of Francis's hand. sorry if I sound too passionate. nothing personal. I love this game.
First, I think the 60% may be a little high. Pike signed 3 years, 8.5 mill, which averages less than 3 mill a year. Posey's 4 yr/24 mill comes 6 mill. As far as the average year of the deal, Pike's is gonna be under half of Posey's. I think that 4th year is more important than it may seem on the surface. That will be year 1 of Yao's max contract (at the very least, 11 mill), Steve will be making ~14 mill then, MoT will be on the books for 9.75 mill, and Moochie will be as well for over 4 mill. Posey at ~7 mill+ in that final year puts you at more than 45 million already- and that's only 5 players, and you still have no starting 2 guard, plus guys like Griffin and Nachbar to consider. I think the general feeling is, a guy like Posey can come and go- imagine in that scenario that Nachbar develops into the stud SF of our hopes. That makes 45 million dollars already spent, and the only starters on the team are Yao and Steve. Re forwards: Over the last 3 years, we've invested basically 5 first round picks into the forward spots (3 for Griffin, 1 for Morris, 1 for Nachbar). Of course right now, Griffin and Nachbar would get murdered by most WC forwards, but there's no need to over invest our assets into what more or less comes down to insurance. To me, I'd much rather have Piatkowski coming off the bench than Posey. I like Posey a lot, but IMO his game isn't suited to come off the bench. When you have other guys at the position with potential, like Nachbar, it's just not worth it to over invest in a fairly reproduceable player. Josh Howard types barely slip into the first round, and that's really all you're looking for in Posey, IMO.
HP--what I have wanted to do this offseason from day 1 is to make sure Posey is resigned and pick up 1 vet shooter (Barry, Pike,--I think there was 1 more I was thinking about). If we could add a vet hacker-Yao/SF protector 4 (even if I have to pinch my nose and sign Oakley, maybe Ty Hill would do) also, great. We have done the vet shooter part, and I am happy about it. But if it comes at the expense of losing our 4th best player, who happens to 26 old (young) and somewhat of a vet who also has a good ethic--I just think that is a bad move. I think we are setting ourselves up to get killed at the 8th seed with the forwards we have. I was only using the example of not signing *any* vets if the strategy really was to save as much money in the next couple of years to then move into the FA market or resign your own guys (Demarr, Boki, Harvey) if they developed into something special. That was never my ideal strategy--I think we should make a run for the 6th seed and try to take out Dallas or someone in the 1st round--I think with Pike AND Posey (and say Oakley/Hill) we give ourselves a fighting chance at some playoff success. Being like Orlando and getting to the playoff only to get your butt kicked because your forwards are so terrible can lead to as many problems as it helps. So I am not all for the all cheap-flyer-youth movement--but I'd think it is better than losing Posey (you get the vet and fairly young player in one) and replacing him with all older vets. Instead lets balance older vets and younger vets who could grow with Yao/SF by securing Pike, Posey and that mean vet enforcer--I'd call that a great offseason.
btw: which "Barry." Brent Barry would take care of the playmaker and shooter all in one. Don't know enough about Jon Barry to say if he could relieve back door responsibilities from Francis. I just don't think getting a designated shooter in Pike, who JVG believes is a great halfcourt mover as well, helps us get the ball out of Francis's hands. So, speaking of priorities, my #3 priority was met (a shooter), but my #1 and #2 priorities (vet 25-30mpg playmaker and real backup PF) were not. btwbtw: great post NIKEstrad. That sums up the expense of Posey very well. btwbtwbtw: Calling Posey our #4 player is questionable. There are about 3-4 players who are all in the category of 4th best player, especially when considering potential. I don't subscribe to ranking players from #4 on down. It is simply the core vs the role players. Posey is a role player whose role is no more important than Maurice Taylor's.
I was talking Jon b/c he was the FA and more easily had. I am even happier with Pike b/c he can play some SFs than Jon could not. Brent would be great, but I don't know if he would be worth what he would cost you--Mobley?, maybe would could have S&T Posey for him or another guy like that, but not now (at least for 3 months) that he signed Memphis contract. Yes he sure does, but I still think it is worth it for Posey--we are not even in the ballpark of a Cato or Mo contract in yearly amount nor total years. I don't think it is quesitonable at all. I think KT was clearly our 4th best player when he was here and Posey is clearly our 4th best player when he was here. I think this is born out in PT, or production, or subjectively--I don't think it is close actually (between him and the 5th or 6th most important player). As for MoT--I would say there is a pretty strong case his role is less than Posey's. I don't think there is any statistic Mo outperformed JP in, JP was providing 8 more MPG, and MoT played less than another guy in his position who gave you some things Mo doesn't(EG). MoT was important--maybe more important than EG even though he played fewer minutes (especially when Yao was gassed and Mo was the low post option)--but at most Mo had the 5th key role overall IMO.
despite not really agreeing with the belief to rank role players from #4-8, i agree, last year Posey was our 4th best player.
Here's a possible solution for our luxury tax problems - bring back Hakeem! He still has not retired officially, so Toronto can trade his rights. Montross is in the same category. If we trade for Hakeem/Montross, and then they retire, will their salaries come off the books right away, giving us room under the luxury tax threshold to match the Posey offer? Another possibility is Sabonis, who may retire to play in Europe.
Mo was better than Posey last year. How many times was Posey used as a go-to guy down the stretch? And Mo wasn't even 100 percent last year. What Posey did was more easily replaceable than what Mo provided at the end of games last year. I'd like to see Posey's shooting numbers before Boylen got him to change his form. Iirc, it was the Clipper game where the Rockets blew them out where Posey first introduced his set shot. Before that he couldn't hit ****.
despite not really agreeing with the belief to rank role players from #4-8, i agree, last year Mo was our 4th best player.
