The Little Black Book of Available Coaches

Just gonna update my list:

since the last update a lot has changed. the NCAA tourney and NBA season are over, and there is a lot of new intel that is already being discussed in this thread (which i'm so happy to see!)

NCAA Tourney and their coaches

Miller (Arizona), Ollie (UConn), Krystkowiak (Utah) Altman (Oregon)- they all needed to win big to be considered and they didn't. So they're all off the list. Altman wasn't on my original list, but had I updated right before the tournament I would've added him since his style of play would be a good fit for us. but that's neither here nor there.

Jay Wright - If you look back to my original post, I said he probably doesn't want to leave his job after so many years there. After winning the national championship he's received some nba interest, but he has since confirmed that he doesn't have any plans to leave. We can put his name to rest.

NBA Coaches Fired

Randy Wittman - 10 seasons as a HC with 3 teams and only a .400 win %. pass.
Sam Mitchel - nearly identical to Wittman. lots of years as a HC with little to shot for it. pass.
George Karl - I'm pretty sure we all know enough about him, and I'm not sure its what DM/Les want. Pass.


UPDATED LIST - THE ELITE EIGHT
Lets just recall that we are looking through the lens of what Les and Morey want:

Les - big name, up tempo style, low cost is a plus
Morey - open to analytics, safe choice, can be used to recruit


Tier 1 - Serious Contenders

Brooks - His name has officially been linked to our search, as well as a few other vacancies. He's a hot name this summer and that makes him a safer choice for DM and more appealing for Les. He's staying in Tier 1 and is probably the most likely candidate to land here. Here's what I had to say about him last time "Fits what Les and Morey want too damn well for my liking. The only knock I can think of is that this will be seen as an obvious recruiting hire rather than a coaching hire. I’m not sure morey is in a position to take on any criticism of this next move, but he and Les might feel the pros outweigh the cons."

Thibs - Jumps from Tier 2 into Tier 1 since he's officially been linked to our search. The reason I had him in Tier 2 is because I believed that he would be seen as undervaluing input from analytics, and unwilling to play the uptempo style Les wants. Since then, he's been seen at the analytics conference, and may be open to change his style since visiting many teams/coaches around the league. He's the biggest name on the market, and maybe the best coach, especially if he learned anything about offense while touring the nba one practice at a time this year. The big sticking point (and why I almost want to keep him in Tier 2) is that he's looking for some roster control. Not many teams will offer that, certainly not Morey. If he finds a team willing to give him what he wants, he will go there, if no one makes him that offer, he's back to being a Tier 1 possibility for us.

Tier 2 - Dark Horses

Walton - Moving down from Tier 1 because he hasn't been officially linked to our search. He might still be too high risk / high reward for Morey, but that might change after winning a championship this year and becomes the media’s favorite assistant coach. Here's what I said about him in the last update: "He still has some risks: he only has 2 years experience on the bench, and we can’t know for sure that he’d be tough enough to hold harden accountable on defense. He’s in Tier 1 now because he’s become a popular choice in media and around the NBA. That makes him a lower risk / high reward option. That’s the type of gamble Morey usually goes for. He checks off a lot of boxes on the Rocket’s search criteria. Big name and up tempo offense for Les. Open to analytics, could be a good recruiter, and will come with media praise for Morey. However, I could see him getting a huge contract. If the price is too high, Les will pass."

Hollins - We know there was mutual interest at the beginning of the 2014-2015 season, however, that was for the lead assistant role. Will Morey want him as a head coach? I assume if Hollins is willing to open up his offense he would be highly considered.

JBB - he's on the list after taking a 'broken' team to the playoffs. i believe there is a strong chance that if the rockets strike out on the coaches in tier 1 they could retain JBB and hire a very good (defensive minded) top assistant. lionel hollins and mike brown have both been on the rockets radar for this very role in the past. another name would be former rocket and thibs disciple adrian griffin. he's already a lead assistant so the only promotion would be if we offered him the title of "associate head coach", gave him a raise, and told him if JBB gets removed he'll be given the interim HC job like we jus did for JBB.

Tier 3 - Blips On The Radar

Messina, and Boylen - I think they will be seen by Morey as undervaluing his input from analytics. I think Les will not want their style of play. They would be asked to adjust and I don’t think these guys are the type to go for that, and therefor stand much less of a chance of serious consideration. However, they are a couple of the best coaches on the market, and safe choices for Morey.

McMillan - Low risk / low reward. Was an average head coach, but there is a good chance he learned a lot under Vogel. still, unexciting name for Les, no recruiting power for Morey... but the Pacers new style is what they want, and he brings defense. Solid but not all that exciting of a choice.

 

Exactly. I actually believe he will end up with the wolves for the exact same reason. don't forget the wolves have a history of giving the coach roster control (mchale, saunders). i dont see why they wouldn't give that to thibs.

next up is brooks. he's got interest from a few teams. the best openings remaining (assuming thibs to wolves) is us and the wizards. i believe we have an edge since we're in the playoffs and they aren't, and of course his history with our team.

i'm not thrilled with brooks either. i also get the feeling that JBB and finch will be retained as #2 and #3 in command. maybe brooks will be given a budget to hire his own guys to replace buckner and dunn.

overall not very exciting.

 

we might very well miss out on our top 2 candidates. they may not be such a bad thing (i'm not crazy about brooks).

one big reason is that we're in the playoffs for no good reason. we can't exactly start taking meetings with thibs and brooks while we're still playing in the playoffs. this gives the wolves and wizards a timing advantage.

the wizards going after brooks hard and fast while everyone else waits for thibs is a great move that might work to snag him. my gut says if the wolves get JVG, we get thibs... and if they go with thibs, things become a little hairy for the rockets.

in a scenario where we lose out on thibs and brooks, i believe morey will choose either a high risk / high reward move (walton), low risk / low reward move (hollins), or no move (JBB). which will be the 3rd option? i'm not sure if any of them is a clear cut 3rd option yet. i bet morey hopes he never has to figure out the answer to that question.

 

i wouldn't write off thibs so fast. the wolves are interviewing him and JVG. if they go with JVG, i dont see any other team on the market offering him roster control. therefor we have as good a chance as any.

brooks has become top priority to the wizards, and i bet they overpay.

messina will almost assuredly end up with the nets where former spurs assistant GM sean marks will hire him.

hollins is a safe choice that we could probably end up with if the wolves hire thibs. however, morey might also offer him the lead assistant role again as he did in the beginning of the 2014-2015 season. hollins said he'd take it if there were no head coaching options available to him, and of course went to the nets. this time around, there may not be other head coaching jobs offered to him, and he may have to settle for being jbb's top assistant.

why would that be better than hiring him as the head coach? for les, its a lower cost for a lesser role and he's guaranteed to keep his fast paced offense. for morey, he doesn't have to worry about how open hollins is to using analytics. JBB will make sure les and morey get what they want, and hollins will help JBB with game management and defense.