1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

The Last 11 Games (Analysis!)

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by coyotetex, Feb 28, 2020.

  1. coyotetex

    coyotetex Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2017
    Messages:
    484
    Likes Received:
    2,223
    Going into this Saturday's match with the Celtics, I thought it would be fun to analyze the Rockets relative to the other top teams since the transition to small ball.

    There are six teams with 9 - 2 records over the past 11 games:

    Celtics
    Rockets
    Lakers
    Bucks
    Thunder
    Raptors

    Sort of a who's who of the best teams in the NBA with the Thunder sitting in for the 8 - 3 Nuggets. Key thing to point out here - the Rockets have had the toughest schedule of these six teams over that period, with six games against top tier opponents.

    Let's dive right into the deep end. Everyone thinks the Rockets are going to be destroyed on the boards.

    Total Rebounds per 100 Possessions

    48.7 - Bucks (#2 in League behind Nets at 51.1)
    47.8 - Lakers
    46.1 - Celtics
    43.1 - Raptors
    42.6 - Thunder
    38.0 - Rockets (#29 in League ahead of only the Warriors at 37.7)

    Okay so how important is rebounding to winning? Three of the teams with 9 - 2 records (Bucks, Lakers, Celtics) are in the Top 50% of the league in rebounding for the period. And three of the teams with 9 - 2 records (Raptors, Thunder, Rockets) are in the bottom 50% of the league in rebounding for the period. Just for giggles, the 8 - 3 Nuggets were also in the bottom half of the league in rebounding for the same period.

    If the Rockets are getting 9 - 10 less rebounds per 100P than the Bucks / Lakers, then they must be getting a lot less shots per 100 right?

    Field Goal Attempts per 100 Possessions:

    88.6 - Rockets (#11 in League behind the Nets, Hornets, Magic, TBlazers, Pistons, Spurs, Knicks, etc.)
    87.1 - Thunder
    86.5 - Bucks
    86.5 - Raptors
    86.2 - Celtics
    85.8 - Lakers

    None of the top six teams in terms of Record for the period are even in the Top 10 in FGAs / 100. The Lakers rank 28th! Frankly this surprised me. You'd think the best teams would take the most shots, but what they actually do is make the most of the shots they do take:

    FG%

    49.8% - Lakers (#2 behind the Nuggets at 51.3%)
    49.0% - Thunder
    48.5% - Raptors
    47.5% - Celtics
    47.1% - Bucks
    46.4% - Rockets (#15 in the League)

    The Lakers make up for taking fewer shots, by making a higher percentage of the shots they take. But the Rockets are only average here because (we all know the answer to this) they take more threes:

    3PM per 100 Possessions

    17.7 - Rockets (#1 in the League over Mavericks at 16.5)
    14.3 - Raptors
    13.1 - Celtics (#10 in League)
    12.8 - Bucks
    11.5 - Lakers
    10.5 - Thunder

    Wow - the Rockets average 6.2 more made threes per 100 possessions than the Lakers. That's a big margin to make up considering the Lakers don't actually take as many shots as the Rockets do. But the Lakers make up for that by shooting a WAY better percentage on 2 point shots, right? RIGHT????

    2P%

    57.8% - Lakers
    56.1% - Rockets
    55.4% - Raptors
    54.9% - Bucks
    54.6% - Thunder
    51.2% - Celtics

    Again - surprising until you remember that the Rockets don't take crappy two point shots (SUCK IT ANTOINE WALKER).

    The Lakers make, on average, just over 1 and half more 2 point shots per 100 possessions than the Rockets. So the Lakers advantage here is worth about 3.4 more points per 100 possessions while the Rockets advantage in 3PTs made is worth 6.2 points per 100 possessions.

    The Rockets take more shots than the Lakers per 100 possessions and the shots they take are worth more points.

    Not surprisingly:

    Points per Game:

    120.8 - Rockets (#2 in League behind Pelicans at 121.6)
    120.3 - Lakers
    119.2 - Bucks
    117.8 - Celtics
    115.6 - Raptors
    115.3 - Thunder

    Despite a dreadful 91 point showing against the Suns (when WB sat), the Rockets are leading here. In the 10 games that Harden and Westbrook have both played, they are averaging 123.8 PPG. Surprising the Lakers are over 120 until you realize that 8 of those 11 games have been against weak opponents.

    Lets normalize for pace because some teams may have lower points per game totals and still be more effective per 100 possessions:

    Points per 100 Possessions

    118.0 - Rockets (#1 in League)
    117.6 - Thunder
    115.6 - Celtics
    115.2 - Lakers
    114.2 - Raptors
    110.9 - Bucks

    Okay Rockets still leading the pack and with the exception of the Thunder, it's not even close. Also, what the heck is going on with the Bucks? They actually rank 17th in the league in Points per 100 with that number - interesting!

    How do the Rockets give up 10+ more rebounds per 100 compared to the Bucks / Lakers, but still outscore them?

    Turnovers per 100 Possessions

    11.7 - Rockets (#3 in League behind the Spurs and Magic)
    12.2 - Thunder
    12.9 - Celtics
    14.2 - Bucks
    15.3 - Raptors
    15.4 - Lakers

    Steals per 100 Possessions

    10.0 - Rockets (1st in the League over the Bulls)
    8.6 - Raptors
    8.3 - Thunder
    8.3 - Lakers
    7.6 - Celtics
    6.4 - Bucks

    Free Throw %

    82.6% - Rockets (#3 in the League behind the Hawks and Suns)
    81.3% - Thunder
    80.1% - Raptors
    79.7% - Celtics
    77.6% - Bucks
    68.1% - Lakers

    The Rockets are better than the other 5 top teams (and the Nuggets as well) in all of these key peripheral categories.

    So how do the Rockets overcome losing the rebounding game?

    It's simple:

    They take more Field Goal Attempts per game than any other top team

    And they are better than the Bucks, Lakers, Celtics, Raptors, Thunder (and for good measure the Nuggets, Jazz, Heat, Sixers and Clippers) in:

    - Points / 100 possessions
    - 3 Pointers made / 100
    - Free Throw %
    - Turnovers / 100
    - Steals / 100

    And among these six teams, only the Lakers have a higher 2P% than the Rockets.

    Just think - the Rockets have done all of this against a tough schedule (6 playoff teams in 11 games) while incorporating 4 new rotation players into their lineup and with their 3rd best scorer in and out due to injuries.
     
    tmoney1101, Maromi, BigMaloe and 58 others like this.
  2. BigBum

    BigBum Member

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2018
    Messages:
    3,860
    Likes Received:
    1,346
    Steph Curry nerve damage on hand could have opponents rest the stars.

    my projection
    Lakers 62 wins
    Rockets 58
    Clippers 57
    Jazz 52
    Nuggets 52
     
  3. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2006
    Messages:
    88,837
    Likes Received:
    42,768
    The game is tailored around JH and WB.

    The third scorer will be whoever is hot.

    The days of fun loving Eric might be over, he does not get the 3rd most FGAs every night no more.

    One thing the Rocks are best at, adapting on the fly.
     
  4. buzz1701

    buzz1701 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2003
    Messages:
    486
    Likes Received:
    250
    Great post...we are ready for the chip!
     
    Richie_Rich and D-rock like this.
  5. Juxtaposed Jolt

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2010
    Messages:
    20,797
    Likes Received:
    16,587
    tl;dr but thanks for doing all the analysis!
     
    D-rock and hakeem94 like this.
  6. bratna8

    bratna8 Member

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2006
    Messages:
    4,095
    Likes Received:
    4,919
  7. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,571
    Likes Received:
    10,435
    We will need Gordon to step up in the playoffs when Russ or James are off.
     
    D-rock likes this.
  8. FLASH21

    FLASH21 Heart O' Champs

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2008
    Messages:
    13,502
    Likes Received:
    5,425
    This part made me LOL.

    Great post, overall.
     
    D-rock and coyotetex like this.
  9. D-rock

    D-rock Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2006
    Messages:
    40,743
    Likes Received:
    64,228
    Absolutely brilliant piece of research and write up man!! I am a huge fan of yours.
     
  10. D-rock

    D-rock Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2006
    Messages:
    40,743
    Likes Received:
    64,228
    Nerve damage my ass, he and Dray always duck games when they have no chance.

    Always. Their rep means more than hooping. And they will get exposed for the overrated frauds they are without KD, Iggy and Klay.
     
    RayRay10, DeBeards and hakeem94 like this.
  11. DeBeards

    DeBeards Member

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2019
    Messages:
    15,106
    Likes Received:
    31,336
    great analysis as used to be.
    Based on analysis, i suppose contenders are gonna work on things against us:
    * possessions
    - slowing down tempo
    - less TOs, less steals allowed
    - less transition games
    * 3PA
    - alowing 2s, but not 3s
    * 3PT% n 2PT%
    - cutting connections between James w/ mates, in stead letting Russ go
    Tiebreaker game
    - drawing more fouls from (key players)
    All in all, dragging the games into kinda vintage 70s-80' 'mid-range win it all' games.

    But, the only question is, 7-game in 14 days, that will be a great challenge to opps' stamina to grind against our system, i.e. how long it would sustain in a 44+min game, how good their defense gonna be. To us…its kinda vice versa, incl whether we could make sure all 3s falling, if stay cool n restarting from taking over control of the tempo and wait.

    The slippery LAC is still hiding n coasting.
     
    #11 DeBeards, Feb 28, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2020
    Relativist and hakeem94 like this.
  12. coyotetex

    coyotetex Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2017
    Messages:
    484
    Likes Received:
    2,223
    Thanks man! It’s fun doing this research when the Rockets are winning.
     
    hakeem94 and D-rock like this.
  13. banzai

    banzai Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2013
    Messages:
    2,410
    Likes Received:
    1,404
    Badass... morey and co have done their homework. David vs Goliath strategy working out pretty good. My question is, can we keep this up in the playoffs? Opposing teams will try to slow down our pace... at least we got better shooters now. I hope we have a slightly bigger rotation... we’ll need the fresh legs in D. Russ won’t be able to take any nights off.
     
    coyotetex and D-rock like this.
  14. Remlap

    Remlap Member

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2010
    Messages:
    4,605
    Likes Received:
    8,308
    All of this just goes to show that Coach was on to something ALL along.
    Just needed the right personnel to maximize it. GOOD WORK!
     
    coyotetex, D-rock and hakeem94 like this.
  15. ipaman

    ipaman Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2002
    Messages:
    13,020
    Likes Received:
    7,784
    great, insightful, post that's just the right breakdown and to fully read despite it's length.
     
    coyotetex and D-rock like this.
  16. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,571
    Likes Received:
    10,435
    It only works if you have 2 guys that can dominate with the space and flex the defense. Then again you need at least 2 dominant guys to win a championship unless you are named Dream or MJ.
     
    D-rock and RayRay10 like this.
  17. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2013
    Messages:
    19,455
    Likes Received:
    25,365
    Nice analysis. Thanks for all your work.
     
    coyotetex, D-rock and hakeem94 like this.
  18. RHU525

    RHU525 Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2002
    Messages:
    4,521
    Likes Received:
    6,175
    Think you mean Dream and Dirk. MJ had Pippen for all his championships and even though he left Houston with a sour taste, he’s still one of the best to play the game...
     
    Relativist and D-rock like this.
  19. SS0101

    SS0101 Member

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2013
    Messages:
    750
    Likes Received:
    879
    Well you missed out lol

    Very good read, very well organized. Really good post and information.

    Biggest take away for me...we are a GREAT FT shooting team and one could say we hunt fouls by how many shots we take at the basket. It is just easy to forget that stat and how important it is to success. Make your FTs. Too many teams, too often, leave too many points at the line. Kudos to Westbrook for being his best everywhere including there.
     
    coyotetex, D-rock and hakeem94 like this.
  20. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,571
    Likes Received:
    10,435
    Pippen is not a dominant player. He's probably the best second fiddle ever but he was always a second fiddle. I forgot about Dirk.
     

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now