I assume you mean LF when Alvarez is playing his normal DH (not really playing), but the Astros are hitting about 15% above average in LF when Yordan isn't playing there while playing Top 10 defense. I don't consider that poor. Would be even better if Chas had been making CF more productive and Diaz wasn't always hurt.
Overall I have been encouraged by Pena's rookie season. He has hit for a little more pop than I expected but his OBP% is a little lower. If you look at his numbers they are overall encouraging. He has had 3 months of 750 OPS or better and passable months of 660 or better and one month that was a disaster in the 550 OPS range. Looks like he righted his ship down the stretch. He will finish with a WAR of just south of 5..... which is excellent. Looking to the future I expect him to get better because he is a hard worker, quicker learner and has shown an ability to improve on the margins. His exit velocity is only in the mid 80's and I expect he will get more comfortable driving the ball. His OB% on balls in play is very low for him and he could easily see a bump of 15-30 points on that. He kept his strike outs in check down the stretch. Having said that, I KNOW he can improve defensively. He was solid this year, but he is capable of being even better. Next year I wouldn't be shocked if we see him start to lock into being a 750-770 OPS type player with a high SLG and a 270 hitter with a 310 type OB%. That doesn't sound great but a 750 OPS with his defense would put him up into the near all star type level and 5-7 WAR seasons potentially. What the Astros want is positive production offensively from him with an OPS+ of 115-120 would be a major piece going forward for the Astros.
League average OPS for LF is .726 this season, and Chaz/Diaz are both below that (just barely). Mancini has hit into some rough luck (and still think he could give solid production in October), but has also been well below that with us. Oddly LF has actually been our most productive position overall because Chaz/Yordan/Diaz/Brantley all have noticeably better numbers in LF than other positions. Mancini playing at his career norms and Chaz starting in CF would actually solve 2 positions (3 if Dusty didn't insist on Yuli needing to start), but I would say collectively the currently available options have given below average production relative to what one would expect from the spot, although not terrible.
He's played the OF plenty in his career and his numbers there are fine. His numbers this season are fine as well. He's been awful when he's had to DH.
This is what I mean by CF being a self inflicted poor production. Chas even with a ton of regression would be average there. Diaz in LF may be below average, but it isn't as bad as what Astros have been getting at 1B and CF. Mancini, I expect will play better and is a huge improvement over how Yuli has played this year. I know Moneyball exaggerated the Beane-Howe differences, but it does not look like the Astros players have been played like Click wanted them to be. Seeing Dubon in LF and DIaz playing short made me cringe. I have not been as frustrated with how a manager has positioned his players since Porter decided it would be best to put Marisnick in LF with the Crawford Boxes and Fowler in CF.
Love me some JP, and he's had a great rookie campaign, but I am not gonna pull punches here. I am seriously worried about an infield flub in a critical situation in the Playoffs. He will definitely fix this as he grows in his career, but that is a big stage for a rookie to take. He's had quite a few ball transition or barehand grab issues throughout the season.
i'm thinking more and more it should be Chas/Meyers (.379 xwOBA since coming back)/Tucker OF and Bregman/Pena/Altuve/Mancini IF in the post-season when the Astros are starting a flyball pitcher and maybe Diaz/Chas/Tucker in the OF when a GB pitcher is starting. There isn't really a solution for both LF/DH with this group of players but CF/1B should be fine assuming Mancini comes around.
If Meyers keeps hitting the ball hard, I'm fine with him in CF over Chas. I think Chas in LF is okay (like it more away than at home, and I understand my view of Chas in LF vs. CF is the complete opposite of Dusty's). If Meyers is hitting the ball hard, I'm not sure there is much need to switch up OF for GB or FB pitcher unless Diaz is 100% healthy (i.e., I think Diaz is a better hitter when heathy than Meyers and Chas, but plays hurt a lot.)
I think 1st and LF are the glaring positions. Yordan doesn't count because when he plays left, there is a glaring hole at DH. Generally those 3 positions are top of the order type guys. If all 3 we're giving us the same production as last year, we would even care at CF. There was a point last season, we thought Myles Straw was serviceable.
When defense is a priority (large parks, opponent who puts balls in play): Gurriel at 1B, Meyers in CF, Chas in LF, Maldy at C. When offense is a priority (good opposing SP, power hitting opponents, small parks): Mancini at 1B, Chas in CF, Diaz in LF, Vazquez at C.
Jeremy Pena Thread He will not be the Astros MVP but.... My 2023 projection for Pena. Bats 285 with 33 homers and a gold glove.
Bumping this thread. This kid is amazing and can't believe he is doing all this in his 1st big league year. Correa who?
Pena looks like a damn star right now. The more we see, the more one starts to feel confident that his abysmal stretch was just an adjustment period that he's past.
Pena is a hell of a player, but constantly flashing the heart is some weak ass ****. Seeing Yordan flash the heart sign to Pena as he rounded the bases was the low point in Houston Astros playoff baseball. Imagine if Jordan or Brady flashed a heart sign after they made a devastating play against another team. Not so great right? How real SS's celebrate.
