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The Jeremy Pena Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Rockets34Legend, Mar 25, 2022.

  1. Htown Legend

    Htown Legend Member

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    If Dusty has the patience to stick with Pena and give him consistent AB’s, I think we will all be pleasantly surprised with Peña’s production. Based on the things I’ve heard and read about his demeanor and ability to stay calm under pressure- combined with his physical tools, defense, and work ethic- I think this dude projects anywhere from above average to elite level SS.

    The question is how quickly he reaches that level of play?
     
    Marshall Bryant likes this.
  2. Marshall Bryant

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    Just be patient. Tucker struggled for a couple of years in limited PAs. He struggled early last year before exploding.

    I hope he explodes early though.
     
    CinematicFusion likes this.
  3. evilhomer

    evilhomer Member

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    I mean he's only replacing the best by leaps and bounds shortstop the Astro's have ever had...no pressure...
     
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  4. Marshall Bryant

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    Better, yes. But Dickie Thon was close for a couple of years (82-6.1/83-7.4) and that's all the PRIMO years we've gotten from Correa (2017-7.0/2021-7.2).
     
    #24 Marshall Bryant, Mar 26, 2022
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2022
    Nook likes this.
  5. Surfguy

    Surfguy Contributing Member

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    I have no idea who this Pena guy is. lol

    He never existed before Correa.
     
  6. BigM

    BigM Contributing Member

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    A healthy Bregman could easily replace Carlos’ offensive numbers. If Pena can give us the Bregman production from last year but play more than 90 games, I’d take it.

    That missing cannon at short though…. What kind of arm does Peña have?
     
    jiggyfly and Marshall Bryant like this.
  7. Marshall Bryant

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    PA WAR
    Correa
    2015 432 4.8
    2016 660 7.0
    2017 481 6.7
    2018 468 3.1
    2019 321 3.7
    2020 221 1.7
    2021 640 7.2

    Bregman
    2016 217 2.0
    2017 626 4.0
    2018 705 7.0
    2019 690 9.0
    2020 180 1.1
    2021 400 2.1

    Yes. Bregman can replace 7.2 WAR and Pena should be able to replace 2.1 WAR.
     
    13 in 33 and BigM like this.
  8. Marshall Bryant

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    Weaker arm but still strong. Quicker release.
     
    BigM and Htown Legend like this.
  9. Mkieke

    Mkieke Member

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    Im an older fan and if he’s Adam Everett I’ll be pissed. Top 5 defense and bottom 5 offense equates to just an average SS. Replacing one of the best currently in the game, I’ve got higher hopes.
     
    raining threes likes this.
  10. raining threes

    Supporting Member

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    Yes you are the only one. Although the Ausmus/Everett/Pitcher AB's made for great bathroom breaks. Give me the Stros lineup over the las 5 yrs.
     
    Nook, Radricky, Fulgore and 2 others like this.
  11. sealclubber1016

    Supporting Member

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    Alvarez, Bregman, Altuve and Springer never existed either, and then suddenly they did. Its amazing how players appear out of thin air in baseball.

    Adam Everett at his peak may have been the greatest defensive shortstop ever, so people need to pump their brakes on that side of the comp.

    It really sucks for Pena that he could have a great season and people are still gonna whine. If you offered me a .750 OPS with above average defense I would run to the bank with it and think we made a good choice.
     
  12. Marshall Bryant

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    They've applied modern metrics to older players now.

    Correa - 2021 dWAR 2.0 Every one loves his defense;

    Everett - 2006 dWAR 4.1 Everybody ignores his defense. He was there for his defense, but everybody was fixated on his offense. For perspective, Lou Boudreau, often considered the best defensive SS ever, never got above dWAR of 3.3.

    Jeter - 2006 dWAR -0.7 Gold Glove making routine plays look difficult.

    Anyway, back to PENA - I'd take Everett 2006 performance (3.5 WAR) and walk away grateful.
     
    #32 Marshall Bryant, Mar 27, 2022
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2022
    13 in 33 likes this.
  13. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

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    Uh...if he is Adam Everett he will be one of the 5 best defensive SS in the history of baseball.

    That would be good, I imagine.
     
  14. jayfree

    jayfree Member

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    Can't read Chinese. Please use English ;)
     
  15. Marshall Bryant

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    These are Plate Appearance and WAR numbers for each player each year.

    A healthy Bregman had WARs of 7.0 and 9.0. I then provide context with the same for Correa. who had a 7.2 last year.

    Then I show Bregman's 2.1 injury plagued 2021 WAR should be easily reached by Pena. Just supporting the statement of the prior poster with Data.
     
  16. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    Seriously, if he was as good as Everett, no one that knew anything about baseball would b**** unless he was batting like Maldonado
     
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  17. jayfree

    jayfree Member

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    Most of what you post is only about WAR. Keep in mind that cumulative numbers by themselves don't tell the overall story of a player because some stat man deemed it so. What wins games is Runs scored and what helps runs scored is RBIs, Hits and Walks. And what deters run scoring are outs. These are the numbers by themselves that are easy to read on how well a player does (no magical one number formula needed).

    Unlike basketball where I player can score 30 a game and still be hurting the team by not allowing others to touch the ball, if a player has 100 RBIs in a season then that's a good year. If he has 5 RBIs in a game then that means at least 5 runs scored that game and he was directly responsible. WAR can't determine that.

    Not trying to jump on your case as I understand where you are trying to go, but understand there's more to baseball than WAR and unfortunately that's all I ever see you post to prove a point. OSM - Other Stats Matter ;)
     
    Marshall Bryant likes this.
  18. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    Ownership and management must have thought enough of Pena to not go after any short stop too hard including Correa. In Crane I trust until he gives me a reason not to trust him.
     
    Marshall Bryant likes this.
  19. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

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    I'm an *******, and people have told me the same: I LOVE defense C-SS-CF up the middle.

    Other chicks love the long-ball. Whatever works.
     
    rockbox and Marshall Bryant like this.
  20. Marshall Bryant

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    We agree more than you think. But going beyond WAR requires more effort on the part of the reader than most are willing to devote. So I use WAR. Even the Statheads don't agree on the proper formula for WAR. I like OPS+ for offense, but any stat is limited in it's usefulness.
     
    jayfree likes this.

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