New hot take alert! The Pistons screwed us over by not talking Mobley. Reason being, there was lots of evidence out there that Cade was always our target. Unfortunately so far we have the worst of the 3. It happens. Drafting is an inexact science which is why teams miss on guys every single year. I still believe Green will turn it around and be a good player. Honestly, I still think he can be an all star, but he has a much longer journey to ever be better than either Cade or Mobley. Jalen’s ability to add strength and a tighter handle will determine his future trajectory.
It depends what you are drafting. We were drafting for highest potential to turn into all-star. Green weakness is his iso and he didn't have a PG to create for him.
I don't expect perfection but this kind of analysis is careless. If he were to have done this, say, 60-70 games into the season then I would say, sure, using a BPM after 60-70 games might fair because we're seeing a bigger sample size. But doing it this early (especially being confident by projecting that it's "highly unlikely" Green can get his BPM to -3 or lower) and to compare it against full season's (or close to it) worth of data for other rookies is a pretty big reach. If he wants to do a more apt comparison, look at the past rookies' BPM up to their 33rd game in their first year and then query their BPM at the end of the season to determine what changes occurred. Drilling it down, he could have looked specifically at rookies who play either the point guard or shooting guard position. Spoiler For example: Notable guards in their rookie season that had a -4 BPM or worse after playing 33 games and over 600 minutes: Darius Garland (2019): -6.0 BPM Collin Sexton (2018): -5.9 Zach Lavine (2009-2010): -5.9 Anthony Edwards (2020-2021): -5.1 De'Aaron Fox (2017-2018): -4.9 RJ Barrett (2019-2020): -4.6 KPJ (2019-2020): -4.4 Trae Young (2018-2018):-4.4 Their BPM at the end of their rookie season: Garland: -5.5 Sexton: -4.7 Lavine: -4.6 Edwards: -2.1 Fox: -4.2 Barrett: -4.3 KPJ: -3.8 Young: -0.6 If we want to harp on the fact that Green was the #2 pick then let's eliminate the players that weren't selected in the top 5 and that leaves us with: Edwards: +3 improvement from game 33 to end of season Barrett: +.3 Fox: +.7 Garland: +.5 Young: +3.8 Basically there's pretty much a 50/50 shot that Green can vastly improve on this one BPM metric and that "highly unlikely" talk don't have a lot of weight behind it.
again, you need to be careful with your receipts, because they don’t show at all what you think they show. Here’s the quote that you have an issue with: The author’s All-NBA player bracket had rookie BPM of +1.58. So even if JG has an ANT-like turnaround of 3 points, which is the outlier in the data, that would bring his rookie BPM to -2.8, still a far cry from the All-NBA bracket of +1.58. The article is carefully and well-written, with balance. The author does allow JG improvement from -5.8 to -3 in his analysis: Getting to -3 BPM would be a turnaround of 2.8 points, which is in the ballpark of the [very rare] ANT turnaround. If anything the author is being generously optimistic for Jalen’s rest-of-the-season. My advice to you is to cut down the vigilante tone. Your "receipts" are more often than not pure deceits , as in this case. you’re embarrassing yourself.
Kind of what I expected. He is near the bottom. Look at UH star Quentin Grimes. He right there with Cade. Wow, and he was a local.
LOL. Again, it all comes down to me not giving Mobley all the credit.... It's this weird narrative you've constructed where you can't understand nuance. Mobley is the "connective tissue" but he isn't the one making Love shoot 40 3P% on 6 attempts..... You literally gave Mobley all the credit for the 3 BIG lineup, but how the hell is a 3 BIG lineup supposed to work without any shooting? Speaking of not knowing jackshet about basketball.... Cue the insults..... and field goal moving.....or just run and hide..... This is what YOU said:
Here is what amazes me. The NBA scouts are supposed to the best in the business. Certainly capable of spotting a player with poor fundamentals. How in the world did they get it so wrong with Green. Did they say things about his lack of basic basketball skills? I can't remember.
Maybe google Jalen Green's draft profile? He objectively wasn't playing this fundamentally bad in the shortened G League season, maybe he went on a heater in the G League?
I look like Lebron against 5 year old kids. Level of competition matters. Even retired Gerald Green can come off the couch and score 22 a game against weak ass G league competition.....Jalen Green managed fewer than 18.
scouts have more information than us, but at the end of the day, everybody is just guessing…the draft is a crap shoot just look at the list of guys taken 2nd overall the past 20+ years…it’s not that impressive I’m sure the Kings thought Bagley had big star potential when they were passing on Doncic
Luka was a freaking no brainer though; he was so accomplished overseas and a Euro star was also their GM; I don't get passing on Luka at all
I kind of hope so. Travelin Queen in a similar sample to Green has put up 23/6/4 in the G league this year. Being able to do that in the G league does not mean you are an NBA caliber player.....but not being able to do that means you definitely are not an NBA caliber player.
there were a lot of people questioning his lack of athleticism…it’s the same thing that had people on here acting like Cade is just another Shaun Livingston but even if he was a no-brainer, Kings scouts were probably thinking that Bagley is the next *insert All-Star big…meanwhile, he’s nothing special at all Fultz jumper was already looking busted by the time he worked out for Philly, but the Sixers and their scouts were still so enamored with him that they took him without hesitation anyways Rockets didn’t even work out Cade or Mobley, and Green supposedly killed his workout with the Rockets which probably had the scouts and FO loving him even more Green has poor fundamentals, but he we had many people on here bringing up the likes of Kobe when discussing him, so I guess his lack of fundamentals wasn’t as apparent until he started playing NBA comp…u don’t really need fundamentals in the G-League since it’s basically a Summer League type environment
I do notice that Green seem to b lacking a lot to his game, and it may b sound like im pointing fingers, but he was not put into the best environment to showcase his skillset. We drafted a offensive player w/ weak D (going off the descriptions by the folks that actually followed him before draft) 1) we have a vet learning the ropes to play point guard = can't expect smart, safe passes that sets Green up for success 2) pouty ass Big man who refuses to play D or do his job = Opposing big man will b on green's ass if he attempts to go into the paint 3) Coach = i questioned Silas ability to coach, but it seems a lot of folks here thinks he's garbage = hinder Green's development Green is lacking, but I am rooting for the rookie. Cause if he ends up being lackluster in a few years, only folks being screwed is us the fans.
