The Insanity that is CPAC

Where do stats come from?

Did Morey have Russian spys get secret access to Harden's OKC stats and Paul's Clipper stats

Why make trades if teams supposedly have secret info on their players

 

Um.

Ok.

I guess?

 

Where do stats come from?

 

From a Q and A with Morey...

JCF: I heard you discussing something the other day that I found to be fascinating. You were talking about “high leverage moments” late in games. Can you go into the meaning of that term and how it relates to the Rockets?

DM: I don’t want to go into details since it’s somewhat proprietary, but it basically looks into what people would consider key moments of the game, where the chance of one team winning or the other would shift dramatically. We just add a little more sophistication to it, that’s all.

 

So no one else has access to these key moments?

Morey is a better statistician. My point exactly. Everyone sees the game. Morey garners more info cause he is a better statistician. He doesn't have secret game action

 

From the 400 pound fat guy in his mother's basement, obviously.

 

So the article says the polling data came from firms the campaign hired. So in otherwords the information is out there for anyone to get

You proved my point. Thanks

 

Exactly. Thanks

 

Morey was key early on in developing +/- stats cause he is a better statistician not having secret info

On Manafort giving up that info. Dont know why he did it but there is a reason why that led to no charges. Its no big deal.

Maybe it just helped the Russians by eliminating some work if you really believe there was collusion

 

He has information not available to people just watching the game. Unless those people are developing super advanced algorithms to track player and ball movement, among hundreds of other variables that can't be cataloged via the eye test.

 

Exactly my point. The information comes from games everyone can see

He is just better at getting information

What is the dispute? They aren't building nukes. The base info comes from game action everyone even you can see

 

Kind of common sense that campaigns have their own data, otherwise foreign governments would simply get it themselves.

The first sentence even uses the phrase 'internal polling data'.

Tuesday, when news broke that Donald Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort had shared internal polling data with Konstantin Kilimnik, a Russian business associate with ties to Russian intelligence, the through line between the campaign and the Kremlin began to look incontrovertible.

 

Sorry for thread derailment but discussing Morey and stats is more interesting. I still don't know what thread is about

Got alerted to for no reason

 

Read further. Paul Manafort hired polling firms. The internal info came from another party

The info is internal cause they paid for it

Nice try though

 

That doesn't matter regarding Manafort's action to share proprietary polling data with foreign intelligence agencies. Whether it was helpful to the Russians or not, he tried to help the Russians influence a US election.

I'll give this a shot. With political stats and basketball stats, there are some that are published and generally available. There are other, generally more detailed and labor-intensive, stats that are not generally available but can be purchased by campaigns or basketball teams. And then, there is customized data-gathering that a basketball team or a campaign might direct that would target particular data points that the team or campaign thinks will be particularly important and give them an edge on their competition. This last category would be proprietary and confidential and you wouldn't want anyone else to know what you were looking for or what you found because your advantage comes from knowing something your opponent does not know. And, someone else could produce the same information, but only if they had the same bright idea that you did that this would be important information to collect. To take the Morey example mentioned earlier, has any other GM thought to consider collecting data on key moments, and did they think to collect the same data points on what happens at those key moments? Maybe something similar -- maybe better, maybe worse.

Supposedly, some of the polling data shared with the Russians was of this last kind -- polling data made custom for the Trump campaign specifically. This is not data you'd find at gallup.com, nor could any campaign buy it off the shelf. It was made only for Trump. If they were going to share it with anyone, it'd be with allies that they could trust to help Trump get elected. Maybe the RNC. Apparently, the Russians.

The Russians, of course, could have collected their own proprietary data instead of getting Trump's (but they didn't). But, aside from the quality (maybe better, maybe worse), sharing data allows the Trump campaign and the Russian influence campaign to 'sing from the same hymnal.' Their efforts are made with the same cut of data, so their actions will end up being in coordination. If, for example, they identify a likely voter who is an alien abduction conspiracist, the Russian troll farm knows to hit him with conspiracy theories about Hillary being an alien (or whatever) while the Trump campaign stresses to him Trump's intention to launch Space Force. The Russian and Trump campaigners don't have to coordinate how they'll approach alien abduction conspiracists -- the coordination stems from the shared data analysis.

The cherry on top for the Russians, of course, is this is also kompromat they'll have on Trump. If it is ever useful to do so, they can tell the world that Trump's campaign conspired with them, and have the documents to prove it.

So where does that leave us:
1. Regardless of efficacy, Manafort tried to help Russians meddle in elections by sharing polling data.
2. Some of the polling data he shared was proprietary to the Trump campaign and not easily replicable.
3. Even replicated, there is value to the effort to get Trump elected to be working from the same data set.
4. Trump's campaign left itself vulnerable to Russian intelligence by having anything at all to do with them.

 

Very well explained....

 

You Trump has smarter polling people than the proprietary firms?

What do these people he hired do the other years non election years?



They aren't building nukes. Obama won in 08 cause he got people out to vote based on information on who might not vote. The info campaigns spend money on revolves around that

Edit: and again the info came from third party firms meaning you still haven't proved campaigns have secret info

 

Considering most public polls had Clinton winning handily and Trump claimed he knew they were wrong, it appears he did have smarter/better internal pollsters.

 

The key to winning elections is turnout. Most people vote the same way every election