The inevitable September Collapse of the Texas Rangers

I hope, as you assume, that his perspective does not come at the cost of feeling like they don't need improvements....I sure hope Crane doesn't feel that way.

 

Yeah; it can't be a passive offseason.

Unfortunately, they're going to have to get creative, at least when it comes to pitching as they can't outright buy some. And, man - as much as they need to upgrade the rotation, I sure as heck don't want to do it at the expense of Bregman...

This era may very well be torpedoed by Hamels negating the trade. Not only did it not improve our team - but that he went to the Rangers....... Just.... killer.

 

That's all good for improving in their other 140 games. But what makes you think this will make a difference vs the Rangers? The Astros had a great #1 and #2 last year and still sucked against the Rangers. This year, even with the pitching mess we've had, we still have better overall pitching than the Rangers and give up fewer runs than them, yet it doesn't matter. This is not a statistical problem, so what makes you think adding more good players solves it?

This is the whole issue I (and probably Hey Now) have with this line of thinking vs the Rangers. If you look at the stats, the teams are even or the Astros are better. The problem is either flukiness/luck or a mental issue of some sort. If its the former, the only solution is to wait it out. If it's the latter, it's not really a problem solved with just getting better talent. The Rangers both last year and this year have one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball and it just doesn't matter.

 

I'm thinking the Rangers are a more talented team than the Astros. So I'm thinking the Astros would do well to acquire more talent to beat the Rangers and other teams as well with greater frequency.

 

IMO, they have a lineup full of professional/consistent hitters that will keep them in most games, regardless of what their starting pitching does. They don't possess bad K tendencies and if there is such a thing as getting a hit when there's more pressure (men on base, late innings), they seem to thrive in those situations as well (or at the very least, they're not intimidated by it).

 

questionable analysis. need to see some stats. not sure your theory will work.

 

Astros had injuries... Rangers had more.

They mostly earned their wins, and hopefully they'll lose first chance possible.

 

Rangers are 30 games over .500 and have a measly +10 run differential. That seems ridiculous.

 

I do agree with that, they have a very deep and consistent lineup. But most research agrees there is very little evidence of any sort of 'clutch' factor in baseball, and I don't believe they'll be nearly as fortunate in close games next year. Can't be.

 

This. That is really an absurd number. Gets even crazier when you include their clustering luck as well as the amount of weak/infield hits they had this season.

 

But wasn't this a similar story for last season as well ( ie. the astros were better than the rangers on paper in terms of run differential etc )

Maybe the rangers have found a way to get their sequencing to act more favorably than average ?

****, a lot of their record vs statistical indicators can be explained by how they performed against us.

 

Then why doesn't that talent translate into the underlying stats? Why are they only outscoring opponents by 10 runs with so much more talent?

This seems like Donald Trump style analysis. The economy sucks. Let's make it great again! How? Just do everything better! It will all be great.

 

Rangers know how to win. Astros find a way to lose

Run differential has nothing to do with it.

 

The Rangers had the best season in over 100yrs in MLB in1 run games. The idea of that ever happening again is not likely. The Astros need to get better and being healthy will help, but we need another starter, another reliable bullpen pitcher or 2 and we could use a consistent RBI bat in the lineup.

 

Rangers +6 run differential is the lowest ever for a 95 win team. Next lowest is +66.

Personally, I feel like they're lucky af in regards to their success in 1 run games -- but that's probably just salt on my part.

 

I don't know why it doesn't translate into underlying stats. It just seems to me if you want to improve your chances, you should try to improve the talent. Our team has glaring holes, it seems, from 5-9 in the lineup and at the top of the pitching rotation. Even if you're absolutely right and it's just luck that separates us, I still feel like the Astros need to improve the roster.

I'll also say that I hate excuses. That's true of my business and personal life as well. When you lose, you lose. We can talk about underlying reasons all we want, but the Rangers were handed a heaping helping of injuries that they managed to overcome. I just find it distasteful to write off a 10 game lead in the division as mere luck...and I'm hoping Astros' management/ ownership isn't being that complacent about it.

 

Great jinx thread.

 

Hate to beat a dead horse, but this is via ESPN - "Meanwhile, Texas Rangers fans are convinced that the team's 36-11 record in one-run games speaks to some kind of chemistry or clutch factor that bodes well for the postseason. Well, I can tell you that none of the teams that had the best record in one-run games in the past 10 seasons won the World Series." so it's not like its just us being the crazy ex

 

That MIGHT make me feel better if the Astros were in the playoffs.

 

Truth to that. I just grew an irrational hatred for the Rangers in this frustrating summer, and think (more like hope) they'll get rolled by the Jays.