The incredible transformation of Justin Brooks Verlander

Everyone is trying to walk in Justin Verlander's shoes. So I guess to Kill a Mockingbird worked.

 

I agree with this. So the question is do you think the Stros ultimately offer this to JV?

 

In a sense yes, in a sense no.

Base salary is guaranteed (which is different than NFL contracts as I'm sure you know). Incentives, performance bonuses and non-player options are not guaranteed money to the player. They have to be earned/triggered.

In MB's scenario, say $40m for year 1 with player option for a season 2 at $25m- (if denied) then team option for $50m. The guaranteed money to the player here is only $65m over two seasons

Vs a straight up 2 year/$80m contract, where the player gets all $80m regardless if he has two Cy Young seasons or needs Tommy John after 1 start.

It all becomes a math equation eventually but at baseline, a straight salary/years contract is more advantageous to the player than one with a low priced option.

 

Team options are not guaranteed to the player.

 

I don't think the Astros should do 3 years and I love the guy............how about 2 years 100 million, hey its monopoly money at this point. We got a bargain this year so give him a fat payday but only 2 years..............someone out there will give him 3 I just don't think its a great idea

 

I know we always say the player should maximize their money. But Verlander is going to be set for life. He has millions, his wife has made millions. After he is done, will get into the HoF essentially no matter what and be able to do anything he ever wants to do baseball related or sponsorship wise because he has impeccable character and hits both a Midwest market in Detroit and a Texas market in Houston solidly.

If his goal is to maintain his health, and get to career milestones -- including wins, it makes the most sense for him to stay with the Astros or only go to another very competitive team with great training resources that will support him with defense and run support.

Basically there are a few other suitors, but I don't think there are as many obvious ones as people think there are. And moving again and changing up your routine again at this point in his career is not as solid a gamble it may appear to be. Also, the Astros showed a whole lot of faith in him already with the recent TJ surgery and subsequent contract with basically no leaks about questioning it from the FO.

 

JV finished the season at 244 wins and wants to get to 300. He will need at least 4 more years to get there.

I see Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens in him.

Ryan pitched over 150 innings with better than league average ERA every season through age 45.

Roger did the same through age 42 and then same effectiveness but less innings for 2 more years.

I do not want to see JV playing for any other team and feel he will still be at least close to all-star level for 3-5 more seasons.

I would offer a 3 yr $123 guarantee + $16M player option w/$8 buyout.

He is guaranteed $131 over 3 years that beats Scherzer's deal.

He has a 4th year option on his terms to get to 300 wins if he falls off and can't get a $10M contract on the open market.

If he takes the option, a single season of $16M won't kill the budget even if he is not the same pitcher.

The player option makes his AAV down to $34.75M

 

There's mutual interest and Crane plays favorites when it comes to this stuff...

 

Will JV get his number retired by the Astros when it's all over? 3 full seasons with possibly 2-3 more...I say yes

 

Assuming he goes on and wins his 3rd Cy Young, I hope he sees this year as a template to get to 300 wins. With a good/great team, he can focus on going 5-6 innings per game to preserve his arm for the duration of the pursuit. Losing two years in his recent vintage puts 300 in jeopardy. He's got to do what he did this year and play the long game, IMO.

Wonder if Crane could get him to bite on big money up front the first two years, lower amounts in years 3 and 4, and a 300 bonus which covers both parties in this run at history for JV?

 

Think if he wants 300 wins, then we would have him pitch more innings and go longer. When Nolan was on a count he was less productive in the win column and he knew it. The best way to get wins is to pitch longer in my opinion. At some point the arm will give out, or the back will go, I just don't think pitch count will be the reason why. So I say push for the record now while you still got it and struggle across the finish line as needed.

 

If Ohtani agreed to a 2-3 year contract he absolutely would get that money. If Verlander were 29 coming off his current season he would get 50 million no questions asked on a short deal.

Teams are scared of length risk not AAV.

 

This may be off topic, but I'm still amazed at Verlander's performance during the regular season. He had masterful control of his pitches this year.

 

I think so. He has money and should be able to get 30million a year here with better tax situation.

He wants 300 and to continue to win championships.