The incredible transformation of Justin Brooks Verlander

If lifestyle is important to JV and even Kate Upton, they are gone.

If he wants baseball glory, Houston is obvious favorite. I'm fine bringing him back at 38 mil or spending that elsewhere.

 

Tucker is just starting arbitration. The first three years with keep the cost of the last three years lower on an AAV basis. In the last three years, he has consistently produced around 5 WAR per 600 PAs. What is that worth? Since that has been priced between $5M to $10M per WAR for FA years. The estimates will vary widely as will Arb year costs which subsidize it. It sounds a little high, but not outrageous if his FA field value is $37.5M is $110M for 3 FA years and $70M for 3 Arb years.

ps DH is the lowest $/WAR position, though the corner OFs is just a little more. 6, $135 doesn't sound too far off the mark.

 

Tucker’s a near .300 hitter with extreme shifts getting banned.

 

Lol, i'll walk it back again but I just meant to say I'd rather pay (and/or overpay) a mid-20's position player rather than a entering age 40 pitcher.

If we're just talking about Tucker, I don't think he's hit his ceiling yet. I bet his avg goes up 10-15 points at minimum when the shift is banned. He's still a few years away from physical maturity too so he could crank out 40 HR's in a peak season. He plays RF.... but he's a gold glove RF'er....

He's a legit all-star and will merit high 20's to low thirties on his FA years. Bregman's getting $28.5 on his FA years and its not crazy to think there's some inflation in future contracts.

 

I would rather pay the player who smashed through his ceiling, and who is looking down on everyone else from the top of the baseball mountain, and who tomorrow can hold his Cy Young from the mountain top like Simba the Lion, while pronouncing himself King. Let's get this deal done and win another championship.

 

If we don't sign Verlander, what's plan B? Brown? Javier?

 

Basically yes. If JV doesn't resign I doubt the stros go after another outside option. They have 6 solid starting options (beyond JV) and can run them out in a 5-man or 6-man rotation.

 

No way we're paying 3 years 130 Million for a 40 yr old. He's going to the stupid Rangers a la Nolan Ryan.

 

Who are they?

McCullers, Framber, Brown, Urquidy, Javier, Garcia? If I'm remembering right?

 

Honestly thought JV would give us a discount after paying him huge bucks for sitting out 2 years in a row. Thought their was a wink wink deal in place but guess not.

 

I've never heard of a top tier pro athlete doing something like this. Seems like fan fiction people create in their heads because they think sports aren't real professions.

 

Kinda thought so too.

 

How much was his 2023 CY Young season worth?

Is Crane gonna slip him a few million to pay for the extra value? NO

Is Justin gonna give back some of the $66M he got while injured? NO.

Crane collected insurance and recovered most of that.

Did Crane give Correa a big salary or bonus because of the millions and millions above his salary that he performed and generated for the team? NO

No owner or player is going to consider the + or - he earned or didn't earn when negotiating a new contract.

 

Not worth 43 million a year I reckon.

 

Fangraphs has his last season valued at 48 million dollars, so he'd have to keep up nearly the same production to have that contract be worth it.

 

Yikes, lol.

 

This is the season where post TJ surgery pitchers hit their stride... keep that in mind.

 

Verlander, at least from a peripheral standpoint, was objectively worse than 2019. His K/9 was down (albiet down to 2011 MVP levels), his K/BB ratio was down, and he only hit 98 a handful of times.

So how did he post the lowest ERA of his career? The end of the juiced ball. His HR/9 rate went from 1.5 to 0.6, by far the lowest of his career.

As long as the juiced ball never returns, barring a major injury, he should keep up this recent stretch of performance. It makes you wonder how insane 2017-2019 would have been if pop-flys weren't leaving the ball park.

 

He had a great WHIP. He wasn't giving much hard hit contact, juiced balls or no juiced balls.

 

They all play with the same balls, insert joke. and Verlander was still the cream of the crop.