OK. But naysayers would say there is a reason why Juwan plays more minutes than Stro ...despite PER stats. Juwan doesn't miss defensive assignments because of lack of concentration ...he misses them because of lack of footspeed. Clearly JVG would rather have the guy not making mental mistakes. HUGE? No it didn't. It went down 1.4 points. He rebounding went UP .2 trb. Here's his PER 40 scoring stats: 2001 11.9 2002 17.8 2003 17.5 2004 19.0 2005 18.9 2006 17.5 2006 looks JUST like 2002 and 2003. 2004-05 ticked up slightly. I wouldn't call 2006 an "aberation." I'd call 2006 a minor blip that isn't even worth mentioning. You say tomato ... So he'll average an extra 1ppg next season? And you feel Memphis will be excited in that "jump" in production. Whatever floats their boat.
Are you referring to Player Efficiency Rating, John Hollinger's stat? Because I think you're getting it mixed up with. PER is not the same as the word "per." As long as you're dealing with that, I mentioned "efficiency," not scoring average. His PER went from 16.7 to 14.7, and for a 25/26-year old to have a drop like that (when they usually go to 18 PER, in line with his growth from year to year) is a HUGE drop. It's more than scoring. His scoring dropped, but his blocks were cut in half. His assists were cut in half. His FT percentage dropped. His turnover rate went up. When I mention "efficiency," it speaks to a bit more than a scoring drop. Look at the big picture. It was a huge drop, especially when you consider (as I do) the improvement rate most players show at that age. You're also failing to grasp the age part of things. A 26-year old doesn't, all of the sudden, start playing like he did when he was 22 or 23, as you pointed out ("2006 looks JUST like 2002 and 2003"). That's what Stro did. That's why it's a likely aberration. Unless some sort of outside influence (drugs, injury) is involved, players don't peak at 24 or 25. And it's more than a one-point "jump," as YOUR OWN stats attest to. Why ignore what you took the time to type in? I'm saying that he'll probably play 30 minutes, and if statistical patterns are any indicator, he'll probably average more than 13 points and a little under six boards. In a little over 30 minutes, at five mil a year, that's some good times for Memphis. Actually, I think those numbers (if you push them up to per 40 stats) would be worse per minute than his last season in Memphis. Again, I'm sure Memphis will be quite happy with Stromile Swift, with a PER of 17ish, playing 30 minutes -- compared with Houston getting a 14.7 PER at 20 minutes a game. And if they don't give him minutes, even though his per minute play is good (which it wasn't last year, it was below average), then they're letting the fact that he is a moron and isn't playing up to his potential get in the way of wins. He may not play anywhere close to potential, but what he does give them (i.e., 19, 8.5 boards for every 40 minutes in 04-05) is pretty solid. I notice you didn't touch the other stuff I tore apart.
So, KellyDwyer, what are your projections of another ex-Griz, BonziWells, were he to become a Rock? Will he prosper in the ToyShop better than Stro did?
I'll leave the stat projections to those who are better at that than me -- I'm just guessing about players getting back to where they were. The thing that gets me about Bonzi is how his passing touch seemed to return last year, it was a welcome sight. I worry about his baseline game with Yao out there, and a mix of Shane/T-Mac/Bonzi doesn't seem ideal -- but it's a HELL of a lot better having Bonzi grab guard minutes instead of Luther Head/Dave Wesley, etc. But he is about to turn 30, so any improvement on last year's good year would be surprising.
I agree and this is what I was focused on last year ont he Swift vs Walker vs DM debate. (Though I leaned toward SAR 1st, Swift 2nd--it looks like the Heat with Walker really got it right.) I more agree with Krosfyah than Kelly on this. It was more like a minor blimp than a major drop off for Swift last year. That is why I can't understand the degree of disappointment from Rocket fans about what Swift did, or did not do. We had 5 years of fairly consistent production from Swift. Some fans wouldn't have been happy with 11PPG 5RPG from 24MPG last year for us on his typical efficiency--but that would have been a mildly optimistic projection. We were not signing him because he was a former #2 pick with potential typical of a #2 pick, but as a 5 year vet with known weaknesses and strengths who ideally gives you half a game's worth of minutes as a back-up 4/5. That said Swift has value at his contract, and value to an NBA roster (particularly as a regular high minute sub). A vet with a lot of tread left who can give you 20+ minutes at the 4 and 5 and do some positive things is worth something. Look at the contracts laid out to Gooden, Wilcox, Przybilla and Nene this offseason. Look at your Damp, Foyle,Gadzuric, Nesterovic, Mark Blount, Jerome James, Dalemburt, and Etan Thomas contracts too. Swift has a very reasonable contract given his age and production, it is only when people think in terms of that talent wise he could have been and all-star or his original #2 pick status that folks get dissappointed. But the latter shouldn't have been an issue to Rockets or for Memphis in reacquiring him--his production, and what he is as a player, is pretty much set and known.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/swiftst01.html They have a PER 40 statistic listed there. That is where my #'s came from. You have tossed out some #'s but you haven't provided any charts or links so I guess I'm unclear where you get your #'s. Perhaps that is the confusion. Please provide link so I don't have to take your word for it. There could be 1,000 reasons for a drop or increase in #'s. The simple fact that he changed teams for the 1st time in his career clearly played into it. Had Stro stayed another season, his #'s likely would have increased not because he actually improved but because he is more comfortable with the system. So to compare his last 4 season's at Memphis where he was in a stable envirnment and then point to one season in Houston with a SLIGHT drop in production doesn't really strike me as an "aberation." It strikes me a perfectly reasonable. Maybe you and I could agree on that. I think you are making an assumption that there is such a constant rate of improvement. I wouldn't be surprised on bit if there is no correlation. Look at TMac, for example, his #'s have severly dropped. I'd bet for every example of a player where you DO see such a rate of improvement, I'd bet there would be just an many examples where you don't. You'd also have to consider players that dropped out of the league. What is their rate of improvement? Drafted rookies play with one team for four years. I wouldn't be surprised at all that the season AFTER their rookie contract where they played for a new team, that you'll find a mixed bag of #'s where some players continue to improve but others struggle with their new team. Just a hunch, however. Personally, I don't see a 1.4 point drop to be significant particularly for a player switching teams. I think every Rocket that came to us the past two season's have dropped in their averages. I'll agree with you that I wouldn't be surprised if he acheives that given that he is going to be the starter. I'll agree that Memphis would be happy with that because that keeps him as a tradable asset. That said, I wouldn't be surprised on bit if he doesn't avg 13ppg. Anytime that Stromile underacheives, it won't surprise me. If he averages 15+ppg, then I'll be surprised.
DC, I like your take here. For those of us who still think we paid too much for Battier, this is exactly what it is. I love to have Battier. I think Swift plus a non-lottery pick for Battier would have been fair. CD got ripped off in the negotiation.
Swift's PER year by year 13.1 17.2 18.0 19.2 16.7 14.7 It's listed under "Advanced Statistics" http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/swiftst01.html If anything, his "decline" seems to have started 2 years ago. The man appears to have peaked in his 4th season and started regressing.
*Because you're calling it "PER 40" and not "per 40," it is confusing. All-caps denotes an acronym, like Hollinger's stat (PER), which is done with "per 40" stats. *Umm, his PER is listed at b-r.com. Take my word for it, or look it up. Looks like you haven't done much reading at the actual link you provided. *An "aberration" means a blip in the pattern, a deviation from the course. It's not normal for a player to lose two points off his PER from the year prior at age 26, while he is still heading towards his prime. Doesn't matter how good or bad the prime is, it's not normal. *T-Mac is not a good example, which is why in my post I pointed out that players in their primes don't usually drop that significantly unless outside influences (drugs, injury) are a major factor. Obviously, in T-Mac's case, the latter was a factor. You said: "Drafted rookies play with one team for four years. I wouldn't be surprised at all that the season AFTER their rookie contract where they played for a new team, that you'll find a mixed bag of #'s where some players continue to improve but others struggle with their new team. Just a hunch, however." Your hunch is fine and dandy, and it goes along with my point -- if someone had a drop off during their first season with a new team, then it's likely he rights the ship during the season after -- regardless of same/new team, and regardless of whether the player is a bonehead or not. Once again, nobody's production lops off at age 25 -- which is what you're assuming will happen with Swift. I think Stromile has all the fortitude of a plate of grits, but I don't think he'll level off, and continue to play as he did last year in Houston. It won't be a big jump, but all the NON-SCORING factors (although his scoring took a dive) that took huge dives and dumped his overall productivity to below-average (as I noted, the blocks, the assists, the increase in turnovers, the bum FT percentage) should all return to closer to the 2004-05 form -- mainly because he is still 26 and players don't peak at 25 unless injury plays a part.
Except for the fact that the same guy lost 2.5 points off his PER from the year prior at age 25. Last year seems less of an "aberration" when you consider that. Maybe Stro just peaked physically at age 24 before the wear and tear on his body from years of pro ball got to him. And since he never really developed his basketball smarts to compensate for his physical wear and tear, maybe he already started declining. In fact, I think there is a study that says the average NBA player's PER peaks at age 24 or 25.
http://www.protrade.com/insight/InsightArticleDetail.html?sp=KRC1085549&x=x And here's the study. My own theory is that most NBA players don't develop much basketball smarts and skills as they age, that's why most of them wash out fairly quickly after their bodies begin to wear down (I think the average NBA career only lasts 5 seasons). The player who develop their skills and smarts and keep up their physical conditions are the rare ones who keep up their effectiveness (as measured by PER or otherwise) as they enter into their 30s. Make no mistake about it, guys with 10, 12, 15 year careers, whether they are stars like Ewing/Jordan or role players like Ron Harper/Bruce Bowen are very rare. Thus, according to th study, having your PER go down after age 25 is fairly normal.
i 2nd that. although i know defence is important, he concentrates too much on defence to the point where virtually every player thats played for him have decreased in PPG. (with the exception of yao of course.)
Per Juan Valdez: "1) I don't see many people on this board defend Juwan. 2) We did overpay for Swift. His contract is in the same neighborhood as Juwan's ($30 million over 5 years instead of $36.9 million over 6). And his performance is about as acceptable. If Juwan isn't worth $6.15 per year, I don't see how Swift could be worth $6. At least Howard's contract ends sooner." I don't really care about Stromile, but he and Mo Taylor have been villified on this board more than Juwan Howard in my opinion. I do not think Juwan is any better than these two. Both of these guys were in JVG dog house and much of the board follows this lead. I think if Mo T or Stromile were nurtured as much as Juwan has been - well who knows....
The guy was a horrendous fit for this team. Van Gundy's offense is very precision oriented and demands a level of intelligence because you have to know where to be in order to score. The ball will go through mcgrady and yao, meaning your position is key. Stro simply didn't get it. He was camping on the three point line or doing stupid stuff like pretending he could dribble penetrate when he should be in the paint boxing out and grabbing boards. He won't be that much better in memphis but then again any offense that moves more than houston's is a better fit. The guy is an athlete first and foremost and needs an offense that allows him to just run. That's why I thought New Jersey was a perfect fit for him last year. Phoenix would be nice too. All offense and defense isn't required either. He'd be great in any fast offense or at least his stats would become much more respectable. The guy's bball IQ is minimal and I don't see how it will get any better. I'm not too familiar with Memphis's offense but if it's a little more free than van gundy's "I'll call every play from the bench" offense, then he'll do better.
One thing about players is their intangibles, except with Stro his intangible is he is soft as a marshmallow. Only player in my memory that was out for 3 weeks with pink eye. Expect for Stro next season to cut himself shaving and miss a few weeks. Stro is soft and complacent, his athleticism makes up for some of these weaknesses but in the final analysis the guy does not have the fire to be more than an average NBA player.
so many of us still wanna harp on about Swift? the guys gone, he's not coming back, he did nothing while being a Rocket, and damn it he's just not all that interesting.
Hope Battier will help you out...not only Stro will be better this year back in Memphis...Rudy Gay woulda been a nice fit with the Rockets...but he's gone as well! I'm glad Swift isn't coached by JVG anymore
