1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

The Grizz and Stomile Swift

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by A_3PO, Sep 17, 2006.

  1. Gutter Snipe

    Gutter Snipe Member

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2001
    Messages:
    2,987
    Likes Received:
    65
    If you could put Kenyon Martin's fire or Battier's brain into Swift, you'd have an all-star worthy of a max contract. Unfortunately, the closest parallel we know to Swift's brain is Barney from the Simpson's. Slow and unmotivated, he is coasting through life.

    We got rid of him because his defensive lapses and lack of effort hurt the team way more than his occasional flash of athleticism helped it. If he couldn't shine on a team where 90% of the defensive attention is focussed away from him, then he's definitely not going to carry a team like Memphis.
     
  2. ndnguy85

    ndnguy85 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2005
    Messages:
    2,002
    Likes Received:
    4
    stromile reminds me of david carr. been in the leagure forever..still treated like a rookie who is going to improve. :confused:
     
  3. Kim

    Kim Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 1999
    Messages:
    9,286
    Likes Received:
    4,178
    MemphisX, that's a good point about the fouls. I forgot about the fouls. A big reason why Swift cannot get big minutes is because he always fouls so much.
     
  4. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Member

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 1999
    Messages:
    35,056
    Likes Received:
    15,230
    1) I don't see many people on this board defend Juwan.
    2) We did overpay for Swift. His contract is in the same neighborhood as Juwan's ($30 million over 5 years instead of $36.9 million over 6). And his performance is about as acceptable. If Juwan isn't worth $6.15 per year, I don't see how Swift could be worth $6. At least Howard's contract ends sooner.
     
  5. candlegreen

    candlegreen Member

    Joined:
    May 20, 2002
    Messages:
    1,527
    Likes Received:
    55
    Statswise, that's true, but where are the stats that shows how often he falls asleep on defense and another PF just go around and dunk on him.
     
  6. BigSherv

    BigSherv Member

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2002
    Messages:
    4,494
    Likes Received:
    67
    i got 5 letters to explain how I feel

    sucka!
     
  7. KellyDwyer

    KellyDwyer Member

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2001
    Messages:
    3,660
    Likes Received:
    86
    Agreed. He ain't the answer. But he won't approach how poorly he played last year until his 30s.
     
  8. London'sBurning

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2002
    Messages:
    7,205
    Likes Received:
    4,817
    Decent backup PF I would have liked to have kept on the Rockets bench. People hyped him up too much on this board when we got him instead of just accepting what he is. A streaky player. Not so much a streaky shooter, but just a streaky player. I think he didn't get enough play to really settle in but those are the breaks.
     
  9. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2006
    Messages:
    46,728
    Likes Received:
    12,237
    Thank you for giving some people here a reality check. You've seen "No Show" Stro in action for many years.
     
  10. xiki

    xiki Member

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2002
    Messages:
    17,847
    Likes Received:
    3,194
    Can we agree that West was not excited about reacquiring SS and that SS was even less excited about being reacquired?

    Can we agree that stats can, and often do, create lies?

    Can we agree that SS can play but does so only intermittently?

    I believed last summer that JVG felt he could reinvent SS as the reincarnation of Camby. If so JVG failed. SS failed again. But, Stro is there and Pau is not, at least until December. This is Swift's latest great chance. I believe he'll kill the Rox but probably the Griz most of the rest of the time.
     
  11. KellyDwyer

    KellyDwyer Member

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2001
    Messages:
    3,660
    Likes Received:
    86
    Certainly West seemed less than enthused at that presser, but that hardly meant the deal was 'in peril.' West wanted Rudy ... for whatever reason.

    Stats are a representation of what a player does on the court -- take it for what you want, but Swift did contribute 19, 8.5 and three blocks for every 40 minutes he played with the Grizz during his last go-round. If he plays 33 minutes at that rate with Fratello, he'll be doing just fine at a bargain rate.

    He does play intermittently, but if the mean average of his super/sucky play are the numbers listed above, then the Grizz will be pleased as punch. Because last season has all the hallmarks of a statistical aberration, I don't see why he can't approach or even eclipse those numbers, even on a slow down team like the Grizz.

    I just want to offer a bit of perspective -- Stro acts like a chump half the time, but he also does put it together for long stretches. And though the chump play mitigates the strong play, it's only brought it down to the tune of 17/9/2.6 blocks per 40 minutes in his career -- not bad -- and he 25.

    Yes, he does suck quite often, and can be maddening to watch as a result. But let's not get out of hand regarding his contributions and growth. Even if he levels out and plays at the rate that he did at age 23/24, that's still a damn good rate of production.
     
  12. krosfyah

    krosfyah Member

    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2001
    Messages:
    7,816
    Likes Received:
    1,631
    You sound EXACTLY like everybody on this board LAST summer.

    Per 40 minutes are mostly useless. Using Per stats, Chuck Hayes is the best player in the league.

    There are good reasons why No Show Stro never averages 35 mpg. So to point to his Per 40 stats is highly misleading of his actual on-court capabilities.
     
  13. KellyDwyer

    KellyDwyer Member

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2001
    Messages:
    3,660
    Likes Received:
    86
    Find one place where I said he would play 40 minutes.

    Nobody is saying Chuck Hayes is the best player in the league. We are saying he had a very good rebounding year last year. Hyperbole gets us nowhere, so let's settle down.

    I did point out that, given the production we've come to expect (save for one season that was an aberration, if the usual pattern holds up), Stro's average career production -- at 33 minutes per game -- would make the Grizz very happy.

    Also, how are per 40 stats "highly misleading of actual on-court capabilities?"

    It's not actually what they're capable of -- it's what they actually do ... on court!
     
  14. xiki

    xiki Member

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2002
    Messages:
    17,847
    Likes Received:
    3,194
    1 commentators/writers claimed he might refure to report etc etc. Maybe just 'screamers' ' overreaction. What can I say, or what does it really matter in the bigger picture.

    The bigger picture is SS is an athletic, talented, stat-capable, mentally disappearing 'loser' IMO. He was given away, and maybe the Rox will pay for it.

    Stro never became the 2nd coming of Camby which was JVG's original design, no?

    Stro's stats are the truth or the stuff of lies? Will Grizz win more because of his play on the court or lose more as a result of SS's presence on, and off, the court?

    In the final analysis I believe if SS were in any kind of demand he would be traded, Pau or no Pau injury. The Rox made a mistake they paid for and dumped, and they gave up two assets for Battier. That's a big price to pay. Very costly particularly for a thin team.
     
  15. KellyDwyer

    KellyDwyer Member

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2001
    Messages:
    3,660
    Likes Received:
    86
    I think he'll be traded a few more times -- his contract is average, comparable with a lot of other salary slots, he's young, and he can sometimes contribute.

    If JVG wanted him as the new Marcus Camby, then I have even less respect for him. Stro gets blocks, but his weak-side defense has always been horrid. Camby already led the NBA in blocks per game by the time New York traded for him, and knew his way around the paint.

    The Grizz will lose heaps of games -- they'll play 40 games without their leading scorer/rebounder/blocker/assist guy -- yikes! And they'll play 20 games while he works into shape. On top of that, I had them as sliding even with an improving Pau -- the loss of Battier, and continuing issues with that ancient backcourt. Damon, Chucky ... Eddie Jones. Suckitude.

    All I want to do is limit the extreme stuff in this thread -- Stromile isn't as bad as he was last year, and he'll never be 80% of what he could be. The answer is in the middle.
     
  16. xiki

    xiki Member

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2002
    Messages:
    17,847
    Likes Received:
    3,194
    6'9" guys get traded. The next coach will be the one to finally get max out of a tall guy. The next coach... BTW - how come he hasn't been traded now that he is eligible to be traded?

    SS is not the answer in the middle. Or at the 4.

    How about a forecourt with Swift and Miles? Coach that!

    PS extreme stuff? I am one who always felt the Rox OVERpaid for Battier. Gay was too much. Stro was too much when included with Gay. TeamUSA Shane better be much greater than the sum of the parts, synergistically speaking of course.
     
  17. Van Gundier

    Van Gundier Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2006
    Messages:
    1,761
    Likes Received:
    0
    Let's remember Marcus Camby didn't make an immediate transformation into what he is today right after he got into Knicks uniform, either. His minutes and numbers, in fact, mostly went down after he moved from TOR to NY. The only thing that went up his first year as a Knick, I think, was his FG%. It took him a few years to become a player his coaches trusted on a full-time basis.

    Maybe Swift would have earned that trust from JVG had he stayed for a couple more years in HOU, but again, it only happens if he wants it badly enough, and I am not sure that he does. We'll see if it happens in Memphis.

    By the way, Swift's per 40 minute stats really aren't that great, when you consider that he fouls about 5 times per 40 minutes (almost 6 times per 40 during the past 2 seasons) also only shoots a mediocre TS% of .527. His rebounding rate is also fairly mediocre even on a per-40 minute basis. His number aren't bad (better than Juwan Howard's), just not really star-like even on a per minute basis.

    He probably would have gotten a lot of minutes, though, if he plays at that level consistently, but he just isn't consistent... he'd have 5 minutes where he plays and produce like Camby, and then sucks completely for the rest of the game. He's go the next 5 minutes making several dumb mistakes and not getting his hand on a single rebound or doing anything else positive. Those bad minutes are why his coaches only play him 20 or so mpg on average.
     
  18. krosfyah

    krosfyah Member

    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2001
    Messages:
    7,816
    Likes Received:
    1,631
    You quoted his PER 40 stats. Who is talking about playing 40 minutes?

    I'm saying if you look at Chuck Hayes PER 40 stats, he appears to be the best player in the league. That is why PER 40 stats can be misleading in the wrong hands.

    How do you figure last season was an aberration?

    2001: 16mpg, 4.1ppg, 3.6rpg
    2002: 27mpg, 11.8ppg, 6.3rpg
    2003: 22mpg, 9.7ppg, 5.7rpg
    2004: 20mpg, 9.4ppg, 4.9rpg
    2005: 21mpg, 10.1ppg, 4.6rpg
    2006: 20mpg, 8.9ppg, 4.4rpg

    A SLIGHT drop but essentially identical stats for the past four seasons.

    http://www.nba.com/playerfile/stromile_swift/index.html

    PER 40 stats are always used to make average players appear to be superstars if you simply allowed them to play 40 mpg. In reality, we know this doesn't work.

    ...and as I've demonstrated above, he hasn't done much ...or at least he hasn't lived up to his "potential."
     
  19. KellyDwyer

    KellyDwyer Member

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2001
    Messages:
    3,660
    Likes Received:
    86
    *I use per 40 stats as my benchmark for every player. It helps distinguish the Stromile Swifts from the Juwan Howards. It has nothing to do with whether I think a certain player should play 40 minutes or not.

    *Nothing about Chuck Hayes' per 40 stats would have him as the best player in the league. He wouldn't even be the best rebounder in the league. That's hyperbole and a disservice to the discussion.

    *Swift's overall efficiency took a huge hit last season, which wasn't in line with the growth (however slight) he's shown in the seasons leading up to it after his rookie year. For a 25-year old to take a step back like that -- not only to stop increasing his all-around production, but to regress -- you'd have to consider that an aberration. More than likely, his per-20 minute stats (better?) will have him around 11 points and just under five boards next year, as he "grows" into his "prime" (trying not to laugh).

    *Name one player who's per-40 minute stats have changed significantly (going up or down) after a jump from 10 minutes to 40, or 20 minutes to 40, or 30 minutes to 40. Name one. Because I can name several whose per-40 minute stats remained exactly the same even after making the jump from bit/bench/30-minute/whatever player to nearly-40 minutes-a-game player.

    *Potential is pointless and I'm not interested in discussing it. If Stromile Swift lived up to his potential he'd be averaging 25 and 12 right now -- but he hasn't, because he's a moron. I haven't mentioned "potential" once and have no interest in it. I talk about production -- however disappointing.

    What I AM saying is that it is likely he'll get back to averaging around 19 and 9 points for every 40 minutes he plays next year -- not that he'll play 40 minutes a game, which is a distinction that NOBODY on this thread seems capable of grasping.
     
  20. tigermission1

    tigermission1 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2002
    Messages:
    15,557
    Likes Received:
    17
    It was still a bad trade for the Rox, I don't care how it's spun. We have done next to nothing this off-season.

    Oh well, we'll see how the season pats out...
     

Share This Page