one thought: flash crash. drop a few hundred points in a matter of days. would-be buyers (eg. chinese/indians) freeze up for a while afraid to catch that falling knife, while weak holders quickly sell out in panic. dimon gets a short window to accumulate on the CHEAP.
for example: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-be-used-to-pay-back-ECB-orders-eurozone.html gold is a barometer for confidence in govt. if govts are in such dire shape they actually need to sell down reserves, you can bet the price will be UP. in fact, as sellers they will also likely help to manipulate it upwards gold will rise significantly from current levels as a counter to public debts. it's incorrect to assume gold will just sit here at $1400 during a worldwide sovereign debt crisis. on the contrary, it would rocket up. adjusted for inflation, it's not even close to it's all-time high yet (~$2350) yes, and the more rude you are, the more i feel the need to sit here and type whatever pops into my head in the moment. both CX and me, maybe we both are sort of entranced (did i just make that word up?), stuck here in a stockholm syndome like web of your charismatic piscean swag just wanting to impress and get your approval. you dumbass :grin:
Until the late 19th century aluminum was more valuable than gold -- times change -- gold is pretty and shiny causing it like diamonds to have an artificially inflated value by those who control the market.
I did include the word significant for a reason. $400 million isn't signficant and Cyprus is crap. John Paulson just sold like 4 times that amount. Ok so now gold is a barometer for govt confidence? I would think bond yields, cds spreads, public unrest, protests, voting out the incumbent party, etc would be better indicators. Ok so now you are saying that gold will have to be manipulated in order to go much higher. Then you are saying it will be manipulated by govts who must drive it higher to repay their debts. So if we use that logic then the US Govt needs gold to go to about $46,000 an ounce to repay the $12 trillion in debt held by the public today. That would make the total value of gold in the world around $250 trillion. Seems totally feasible. Can you tell me how this cartel is going to work? Cyprus certainly seems to have been left out of this cartel since they needed gold prices to be a lot higher to repay debt. Even if you get the top 100 countries in terms of gold holdings to form a cartel then that is only like 18.5% of the gold in the world. Can you tell me why they wouldn't just reorganize their debt or force their lenders to take a haircut? Well I mean it certainly seems like it. You are talking about govts around the world conspiring to manipulate gold prices in order to repay their lenders. In the prior post you mentioned that a small percentage of Americans own gold and seemed to imply more widespread gold ownership in America would cause the price to spike. Those ideas would seem to run counter to one another since one implies that you need consolidation of gold ownership under govt entities for prices to spike versus widespread ownership by the public for prices to spike. Maybe what you are trying to imply is that there will be a massive amount of propaganda put out by world govts to convince the masses to buy gold in order drive up prices. Then these world govts can dump their gold on to the unsuspecting public and repay their debts. Geez....maybe I am the one just getting trolled by getting sucked into arguing against this ridiculous scenario. I should have just stopped earlier and only said that your points speak for themselves.
1) as stated, cyprus is an example. pretty obvious when other debt suffocated countries go insolvent they'll also be liquidating tangibles like gold too 2) gold has always been a barometer of confidence in governments. people try to hoard it when outlooks look gloomy. it's not the only barometer. some of the examples you listed can also be indicators 3) didn't say gold will need to be manipulated in order to go higher -- i said for big sellers that need to sell (insolvent govts) it would (obviously) be in their interest to massage the price up so they can get more in return. 4) govts are selling other tangible assets as well, such as energy blocks, airports, public utilities, islands, etc, etc. gold doesn't need to go to $46k in order solve the world's public debt problems. 5) they will also need to re-organize debts and leave many lenders un-whole, as has already been done in eurozoners 6) more widespread private gold ownership in the US isn't necessarily going to cause a gold spike. in fact, judging by the generally negative sentiment in this thread they will probably get in at the tail end :grin: 7) no, you have this all wrong....for the most part govts are not trying to convince their people to buy bullion. only china perhaps. and others, such as france and india, are even deterring people away from it 8) yes you should just let my replies speak for themselves and stop reading into some multi-layered trollfest being played upon you. the bulk of what i've replied is actually simple metals 101 that any colleague of yours who follows the gold market would likely be able to tell you as well
You are backing away from what you said before. As I asked before, how will they massage/manipulate prices higher? From my knowledge, there is only one big boy govt on the block in term of gold and that's the US. How would a smaller insolvent govt massage/manipulate prices higher? It makes little sense to me. BTW on point 7 you made I was just making up a ridiculous scenario off the top of my head to try to make sense of everything. I wasn't actually being serious. With point 8....Again I wasn't being serious. I say a lot of not so serious stuff. CX has taken issue with it before when I was posting too many cat pictures or something of that nature as retorts before lol. I don't think you are trolling me. We have different views on the world. That's all I can say.
1) first off gold will go higher, much higher without any govt intervention. especially if public confidence in govts collapses. treat that as the bulk of the move. after that (and with tongue in cheek), if govts are forced to sell their reserve bullion in order to raise capital, it is clearly in their own interest to get the highest price possible 2) the eurozone actually has considerably more gold reserves than the US. 3) nobody's talking about the smaller insolvent govts here, otherwise cyprus would have already blasted this up a few multiples not sure which is less palatable.....being called a glen beck gold honk or having my time wasted with this pointless internet masturbation on ur part.....i think i might have just preferred the cat pics :grin:
This is a curious line of logic. The people that will be paying those prices for precious metals are the same people who paid $400, $800, $1,000, 1,500, etc, etc. Guys like this one: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=4711122&postcount=84 Gold didn't need a cartel to support its prices from $350 to $1,900. It didn't need a cartel to support its prices from $35 to $800. It didn't need a cartel to support its price or value the past 5,000 years. But, $1,900 is all of a sudden the magic number? Where anything above and you are "curious who will be paying those prices"? Let me tell you who will be paying those prices. If the situation with the Rupee worsens, people in India won't be buying gold for weddings anymore. They will be buying gold so that they can still afford to eat next month. I don't see a situation like that here in the US in the foreseeable future, as long as our $dollars are still tied to crude. And as long as we keep eliminating anyone that may threaten that balance, Saddam, Gaddafi etc. However, the rest of the world won't be shackled by the $dollar forever, especially as the Fed and our government pushes its limits. Even today the world is diversifying away. There will be a day when buying gold has nothing to do with speculation, but rather, survival. I'll make a friendly wager with you. I will bet $1 US to the tipjar that you, robbie380, will one day buy gold above $2,000, and silver above $50. I have no idea whether you will be doing so to safekeep your future fortunes, or so that you can afford your next meal. But to satisfy your curiosity I am letting you know now, you will be the one who will pay those prices for precious metals. Just like the rest of us.
Well if you would actually discuss thing with facts rather than making declarations with no support then it would be easier to take you serious. Just because you keep saying gold is a proxy on the public's faith in govt doesn't mean it is true. You keep saying it over and over yet provide no basis for that argument. Since gold topped out in 2011 has the public become supremely more confident in governments since gold has dropped by about a third?
Who knows if I will buy gold over $2000/oz...I don't really give a **** lol. I bought it when it crashed recently, but I'm already out of that trade. I can tell you I have no plans to buy gold as a long term investment. I don't like the idea of investing in something long term if it doesn't produce income. I do know I am continuing to invest in stocks, real estate and small business. Further, buying stocks and reinvesting dividends will always destroy simply owning gold while protecting against inflation. So I'm not making a silly dollar bet. BTW I'm only responding this part because we are going in circles. So I'll just say you win and you are right. I hope gold works out for you.
gold in very high demand and trading at high premiums to spot+taxes in present-day argentina & india -- due to lack of confidence in their govts. please don't ask me to do your homework any further. this stuff can all be looked up with 3 mouse clicks on google. err, your grand world view comes off as that of a snot nosed kid who posts drunk too often, brings no value to the discussion himself yet repeatedly demands facts to back up simple concepts that would appear in a Gold for Dummies guide, and may or may not even have a passport much less have been outside the hillcountry more than twice in the past 5 years. enjoy your fiat :grin:
India is very interesting. Currently, they have something close to 1/8th of the world's gold. It is misleading for you to only say that demand spiking is only due to lack of confidence in their currency/govt. There are many other factors for Indian gold purchases and they have had relatively stable purchasing of gold over the past 15 years or so. Google is a great thing. I'm glad you recommended it. http://www.developmentoutlook.org/2013/06/why-do-indians-buy-gold.html I know it's a simple blog, but she sums things up well. I always keep an open mind and I always try to view things from the perspective of others. I've only asked you to discuss things. I apologize if my simple minded blather has only served to waste your cultured and valuable time. BTW I don't have a Fiat. I have a BMW.
Anyone remotely familiar with the gold markets knows exactly the reasons for India's traditional gold demand. No need to educate us about that. Read carefully what pippendagimp wrote. What he alluded to was the current high PREMIUMS over spot gold that the Indians are paying. At the moment, gold in India is trading at over $100 above the London fix price. Some of this is due to their recent hikes in import tax on gold, but no doubt their government's current incompetence, rampant corruption, horrible bureaucracy, all leading to a crashing Rupee is a major contributing factor as well. Its great that you think you keep an open mind. However, I think pippendagimp's frustration stems from your show of ignorance on simple facts that, again, anyone remotely familiar with the gold markets would recognize.
http://www.financialexpress.com/new...-on-demand-as-rupee-stocks-take-a-hit/1156239 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-20/argentina-turns-gold-inflation-tops-26 you've admitted to playing devil's advocate on elementary points in this thread just for the sake of being a pest -- "making up ridiculous scenarios" for the hell of it. and after several pages of posts now you've somehow managed to add nothing novel, nothing of insight to the discussion http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...ike-appeal-as-cpi-hedge-argentina-credit.html
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=8205961&postcount=6 (sorry vernon, but i would concur w/ CX on this)
Silver has an over 90% correlation with gold. All the reasons why I believe gold to be the best and only vehicle for saving also apply to silver, they pretty much go hand in hand. In fact, silver actually has an even more illustrious history as money than gold. In multiple languages such as French, Hebrew, and Spanish, the word for "money": l'argent/plata/kesef is actually the same as the word for "silver". As the saying goes, "Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves." One word of caution though. SLV is not silver. As with GLD, these instruments are un-allocated and un-audited entities loaded with counter party risks. Basically defeating gold and silver's entire purpose as a saving vehicle in the ultra long run. As a trading vehicle, if you are simply looking to play its swings, SLV/GLD are fine, though. But then again, you could simply do so in the futures markets.
hey i've heard from those accumulating CEF, that this fund's gold/silver allocations are actually in order....heard the same for the swiss gold trust SGOL......are u familiar with these and able to confirm?
As far as allocation those should be fine. PHYS and PSLV are two other ones, pretty much advertising themselves as the anti-GLD/SLV. One issue with these funds is that they are closed-ended, so often times during periods of high demand they will trade at a premium to NAV. I remember when CEF/PHYS/SLV traded with 20%+ premiums, then they had secondary offerings which knocked the share price down 10%. Currently they do not trade at huge premiums, CEF actually at a discount, but that is a risk to think about. They also charge anywhere between 0.5%-0.75% in management fees, which can add up over the long haul. Personally I'd still stick with the real thing if accumulation is what you are looking to do.
