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The future of the EU and the UK, post-Brexit

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by MojoMan, Dec 4, 2016.

  1. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    No majority in British parliament for second Brexit referendum - Reuters analysis

    There is no majority in Britain’s parliament in favour of holding a second Brexit referendum, according to a Reuters analysis of public comments made by lawmakers.

    But while a majority of lawmakers voted to remain in the bloc in the 2016 referendum, a Reuters analysis of public comments found that only 219 have expressed a willingness to support another vote, and a further 65 have not made their views known. This is well short of the 318 votes needed to guarantee approval of the amendment if there are no absences or abstentions.

    A referendum would need to be approved by parliament and May has ruled out proposing one, saying it would deepen already ugly divisions over Britain’s biggest decision since World War Two and betray the 52 percent - 17.4 million people - who voted to leave the EU.
    Also, Labour was expected to table an amendment to Theresa May's deal vote on Tuesday, which is expected to fail to pass anyway, that would support a second amendment. That has now been pulled, clearly for lack of support.

     
  2. Major

    Major Member

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    May's deal is likely to fail this week (unless she manages to delay it again for no reason).

    That will lead to a take-no-deal-off-the-table vote, which almost certainly succeeds.

    That leads to a A50 extension vote which definitively succeeds.

    From there, they have more time, but still no solution. And the EU is going to have a real say in how long that extension is and for what purpose because they have to approve it.

    As I mentioned earlier, barring a softer-Brexit that Labour is on board with (customs union, etc), a referendum is still likely their only way out. The EU is going to expect some kind of plan to solve this, and "just give us more time" isn't likely to do it (unless we're talking a 1+ yr extension). They are going to get to the brink before accepting that, though.
     
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  3. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Leavers will propose an amendment to the Thursday vote to for an extension of the Article 50 exit date that will on Tuesday that would rule out a second referendum.

    People's Vote bid to be BLOCKED as MPs plan vote to stop Remainers THWARTING Brexit

    Brexiteers plan to add an amendment to a vote promised by the Prime Minister on extending Article 50. It would rule out the so-called People's Vote wanted by Remainers as a way to block Brexit. The amendment should win government backing as Mrs May has always opposed another public vote on EU membership.

    It would also put Labour into a difficult spot as leader Jeremy Corbyn now backs a second referendum, but it is unpopular in Leave-voting Labour constituencies. The only difficulty is whether Commons Speaker John Bercow selects the amendment for a vote.There have been concerns that he has only selected amendments which help Remainers.

    A Brexiteer MP said: "If it is voted we expect to win and will remove the chance of another referendum. They [Remainers] may get to delay Brexit but will lose the chance of another vote."​

    There is some question whether Speaker of Parliament John Bercow will allow the amendment, as many perceive that the only amendment votes that he has been permitting are those that help the Remain side. Nevertheless, if he does allow this vote, both the extension proposal and the ban on a second referendum will be expected to pass.

    The votes on the Tuesday and Wednesday on the current unaltered "deal" with the EU and on whether to commit to leaving with no deal are both expected not to fail.
     
  4. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Also, the UK public appears to be firming up in support of a no deal Brexit, according to a new poll in the UK. 44% now support leaving the EU with no deal if the EU will not make the required concessions on the backstop, which is what is currently standing in the way of a deal. Only 30% disagree.

    Public swinging behind no deal Brexit, as Tories and DUP urge May to invoke plan B

    Support for a no-deal Brexit is growing in the face of the EU's refusal to help salvage Theresa May's deal, according to a new poll.

    A survey by ComRes found that 44 per cent of the public now believe the UK should leave without a deal if Brussels refuses to make any further concessions - a six point rise from January. Less than a third (30 per cent) disagreed.

    It came as 74 senior Tory activists, including more than 50 association chairman, told Mrs May that Conservative voters "do not fear a no deal exit" and "just want Brexit delivered."​

    The UK Parliament is scheduled to vote on this very question on Wednesday. However, if they vote no, the UK will still leave the EU with no deal on March 29 if the EU fails to make any further accommodations.

    Wouldn't it be wonderful if the MP's took this poll to heart and surprised everyone by voting in favor of a no deal Brexit on Wednesday? I am not going to be holding my breath, but I will cheer for them if they somehow step up and do it.
     
  5. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Many who? Oh you mean that biased site you keep quoting from?
    I have watched him myself on BBC to choose amendments from leavers. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

    Meanwhile the whole Brexit fiasco, has managed to improve tremendously the EU's image to the UK's youth.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ters-want-peoples-vote-strongly-remain-survey
    2 million new voters and 2/3 of them would go and vote to remain.

    "Brexit will be the beginning of the end for the EU, everyone will want to leave" said the Farrages and the Rees-Moggs.

    Not only it has made every other member state more adamant to stay, it even managed to make the apathetic politically UK's young voters to be passionate in favour of it, which is a miracle.
    You only appreciate what you have when you lose it.
     
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  6. malakas

    malakas Member

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    and the biggest irony of all is this:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-not-get-brexit-deal-through-say-eurosceptics

    May has sacrificed her own country to keep the Torry party together. But now the Torry party is suggesting that she sacrifices herself so she can get her deal pass. :D:D:D
    Something tells me that there is no way she resigns though.

    This describes this perfectly "the prime minister had made the fatal mistake of “feeding buns to the crocodiles” in the European Research Group – and they were going to eat her alive."

    LMAO
     
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  7. Commodore

    Commodore Member

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    the ERG is the only group honoring the referendum, both party manifestos, and the Article 50 vote
     
  8. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Member

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  9. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    What a great idea. They have already voted on the other deal and it was voted down by a margin in excess of 2-1. Meanwhile, the EU has repeatedly complained that the UK has not presented a proposal that was backed by Parliament.

    I have wondered why they have not done this before. If they can pass a proposal that contains the will of what Parliament is willing to do, and the EU rejects that in decisive fashion, then it will be crystal clear to everyone at that point that it is down to a choice between Brexit with no deal, or no Brexit.
     
  10. malakas

    malakas Member

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    May got her so called concessions at the 11th hour. In effect nothing, but what was already agreed on.
    "Legaly binding terms for the end of the backstop."
    Like this "When the flying car is invented and we have first contact with aliens, I agree to give you a million euros". :rolleyes:

    The invention of the needed technology that will make the backstop obsolete is at least a decade away.
    The ERG and the UK can now invest the money they would be paying to the EU to tech labs to invent it sooner. lol

    May is trying to force them and this so called last minute "win" is clearly staged.
    But I think in the end that she will have to give them a day more so the attorney general can give his opinion and MPs can think it over. Because in this rush they will be more inclined to reject it than accept it.
     
  11. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    This is a big day today, guys. Theresa May promised for some reason that there would be a second vote on the deal her government negotiated with the EU, which was voted down the first time by over a 2-1 margin. I think she was expecting to have a revised deal to vote on. However, despite some additional clarifications provided by the EU yesterday, the changes appear to be cosmetic only and they do not provide the assurances needed to garner any material additional support from Members of Parliament.

    Here is a link to an article at the UK Guardian about the revisions provided by the EU yesterday:


    However, her Attorney General launched the nukes at these changes, as he published a letter that concluded that "The legal risk remains unchanged" for the revised deal. The language around this was a bit salty, so please avert your eyes if that is a problem for you:

    “Bolllocks”: Attorney General Geoffrey Cox’s reaction to reports on his Brexit advice
    On the contents of the codpiece.

    “The legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the United Kingdom would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement.”

    So this is not looking good. Anyway, whatever happened to that group of seven conservative attorneys that the ERG group had assembled to review the veracity of any revised deal in advance of the vote?

    ERG lawyers reject concessions over Northern Ireland backstop

    Anti-EU group recommends its MPs reject May’s deal after attorney general publishes legal advice​

    Could the prospects for passage of this "revised" deal look any worse at this point? I really am not sure how they could.

    In any case, at no point has anyone actually expected this to pass on this day, without the EU agreeing to a firm end date for the backstop provisions, which they have not provided. They still could. I am still holding out hope that they will, because it is the responsible thing for them to do. But clouds are very dark over this deal right now, that is for sure.

    So if this deal is voted down again as expected, then there will be a vote tomorrow on leaving with no deal (which will not stop the UK from leaving with no deal, even if the Parliament votes against it) and then the next day on whether to request a short extension, which also will not happen unless the EU agrees and which the EU has repeatedly stated that they will not provide under these circumstances.

    But who knows. The only one of these votes expected to pass is the short extension request, which will then likely depend on the extent of the EU's extortion requirements, if the EU is willing to consider this request favorably at all.
     
  12. malakas

    malakas Member

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    391-242 voted down. Well now it's dead.
    Tomorrow there's the vote for no deal Brexit which has 0% chance to pass and the day after tomorrow probably a extending article 50 vote.

    After that May should resign.
     
  13. malakas

    malakas Member

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    The responsible thing to do is to protect their own members and PEACE.
    LOL with the EU being responsible for the UK's follies.
     
  14. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    You might or might not have noticed... one night your body was abducted, and you've awoken into TrumpWorld.
     
  15. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Member

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  16. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

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    Brexit seems like it was not very well thought out

    Rocket River
     
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  17. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    And the UK is still on track for Brexit with no deal, either on March 29, 2019, right on schedule, or if the EU agrees to the extension request that is likely to be approved on Thursday, then by June 2019.

    This is what is called winning, but winning ugly.
     
  18. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Well she is no president she is a Prime Minister. It is no shocking for a PM to resign.
    Her own party can't force her outright because they have missed their chances for the next 11 months, but the other parties can win a no confidence vote and they can force general elections. To avoid that she will have to resign so another politician from her party can become PM and the Torries remain in power.
     
  19. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    As long as they wait until March 30, 2019 to do this - assuming no extension is agreed to - then fine. At that point, elect away.

    17 days to go. Tick tock.
     
  20. malakas

    malakas Member

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    If the vote in two days for the extension is passed barely by a small margin, then maybe the EU won't agree to it. Because it needs all 27 votes to pass.

    Afterall they have nothing to gain by it only the UK will gain by at least fixing their laws and have more time for trade deals.

    But May will be forced to resign if there will be further negotiations.
     

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