For tonight, what my guess is as to what each candidate needs: Bernie: He's set to finish 1st or 2nd, either of which is great for him. Amy finishing 3rd would help jumble the moderate lane. Warren finishing 5th would also be beneficial for him. He'll be fine regardless of outcome, barring some crazy surprise (big loss, finishing 3rd, etc). Pete: Probably needs to finish 1st to maintain momentum and positive news coverage going into NV. He'll be viable regardless, but finishing 2nd would leave him without any spark to push him into the upcoming states with big minority populations. He's a longshot due to that anyway, but he probably needs to finish 1st to have much chance going forward. Warren finishing 3rd would be helpful to him. Warren: Needs to finish 3rd at minimum to have any shot of arguing she's the only legitimate person that can unite the Bernie and anti-Bernie factions. Really needs to avoid 4th/5th. But even with 3rd, not sure her path forward. Amy: Absolutely needs to finish 3rd. Ideally, Biden finishes 5th, and she can push to be the moderate alternative in NV/SC before Bloomberg makes a mess of things on Super Tuesday. 2nd would be amazing for her and rewrite the narrative. Biden: I said earlier he needs to not finish 4th anywhere. He's already done it once, and now he's in line to finish 4th or 5th tonight. That seems like a deathknell for his candidacy. He needs to figure out how to finish 3rd and end Amy's run. Then he can beat Pete in NV/SC and hope for a comeback story. Seems extremely unlikely at this point though.
