[The Daily Reveille] Rockets Rebuild The Right Way

See, I don't know that you can just come out and say "tanking is counterproductive". Perhaps it's not as productive as people who condone it THINK it is. But clearly it's doing something, otherwise no one would be doing it.

If you're going to argue against tanking, you have to additionally consider that having losing seasons is offputting to fans, bogs down the franchise's reputation, and leaves you with little ammo to build with once that star does walk through the door.

But I think your take is good, if simplified.

 

Considering Charlotte won their last three games which cost them the worst record in the league, you probably shouldn't use them as a tanking example.

 

What the writer didn't mention though in this article is that had the Harden trade not gone down, this team would have looked very much like a tanking/rebuild through the draft roster. Accepting a losing season seemed to be something the front office and ownership were willing to explore at that point by making moves like amnestying Scola, letting Dragic walk, and trading Lowry.

Alot of things had to break perfectly for the Rockets to both get a superstar player, and get two Most Improved candidate to emerge from their roster of youngsters at the same time. There was definitely some "good fortune" that went the way of Morey this time around however.

What the Rockets essentially did more than anything is modeled their approach after what any good sales professional would do. Which is to "increase their funnel" as wide as possible.

So its not necessarily about being lucky, its about putting yourself in as many situations as possible to get lucky that counts. Morey and co. did a great job of putting themselves in as many situations as possible to acquire a star, and rebuild on the fly. No doubt Morey changed the game of building an NBA roster though. Other rebuilding teams will absolutely take notice, and try to replicate here in the near future.

 

well the nba has lotto balls to determine your drafting position not like NFL base on record

but i'll be honest and did not read the article lol

 

That is correct, but the worst team gets the most lotto balls. By winning those last three games, Charlotte went from a 25% chance to a 20% chance. Were those wins worth that 5%?

 

Agreed. Tanking works for some teams, not tanking works for others. Both takes a lot of shrewd moves and good luck. It is definitely a big fluke that the Rockets got Harden, can't expect something like that to happen very often. I guess one thing to consider is the strength of the GM, whether it is dealing or drafting.

 

We rebuilt horribly....I mean...we traded for James Harden! What a scrub! Really disappointed in Morey for that one...

 

And we traded for Asik! OMG what a disaster!

 

Actually we signed asik... What am even worst disaster!

 

Actually tanking is basically not doing anything. What you're gonna do is you try to get as many ping pong balls as possible and hope that:

1) There is a superstar in the draft
2) You recognize the superstar
3) You get the pick that can get that superstar, or failing that assets that can trade for that superstar
4) You build a championship team around that superstar
5)You keep that superstar when he hits free agency

So many factors have to come into play to succeed via tanking, the success rate is really low. I mean if you want to look at the best case scenario, just look at OKC. They had full capspace from day 1, had KD/WB/Harden/Ibaka one after the other, and it still took them 6 years to get to the NBA finals. Even worse they still haven't won a ring, and honestly I don't see them winning a ring until Miami breaks up. So that's at least 9 years of no ring.

And we're talking about the best case scenario already, what if Kevin Durant isn't available during the draft? That's why I think tanking doesn't work, people tend to look at successes and forget the rest of the teams who tanked and fail year after year.

 

too early to tell.

Rockets still have a long way to go.

 

You misunderstand, I wasn't claiming that tanking always works, to the contrary, I've been consistent in stating that it fails more often than not.

It's just exceptionally foolish to think that because you don't like tanking and it's a risky proposal, that it's completely worthless. It worked for the Thunder, which tanking fans won't let us ever forget. It worked for a while for the Cavs in '03 and the Magic in '04. I absolutely concur that those are the exceptions to the rule and not the rule itself. But the extreme idea that it's just utterly useless to lose games in hope of getting better is false, and that's all I was protesting.

 

At this point...you really have to wonder if Morey is trying to win basketball games...

 

The basic thing is that if you need to have one of the best players in the league to win it all, then how do you get that player? There are low odds of getting that guy via either the lottery or free agency.

The Rockets plan took at least 3 years, timing, and luck. 3 years of being mediocre could have been 3 years picking in the top 8. As teams get their books in order to comply with the new CBA, fewer teams may be unwillingly losing top talent. So it was good timing with respect to taking advantage of the effects of the new CBA. Finally, the Harden trade was just unreal. A team trading a 23 blossoming player who was a top 3 pick? How often does that happen?

According to rumors, to even get Harden required the Wizards and the Raptors turn down the deal before it came to the Rockets doorstep. And the deal just popped up after the a rockets appeared to be abandoning the "right way" and were gonna take their lumps with a tanking season, having let go of Scola and willing to bet the house on Lin's progress. That is a fortunate break damn near like winning the #1 overall pick.

 

I agree with others saying that if Harden didn't land in our laps, we would have been tanking this season. Do people honestly think a team led by Parsons, Asik, and Lin can even GET to the playoffs?

 

The funny thing is LOF's actually have argued that the last couple of months. It's truly one of the great Clutchfans moments when I see stuff like that.

 

I saved a series of articles a while back about taking and I guess this is a good time to share. They sort of echo your sentiment.

Here's the first:
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/39318/tanking-is-the-tip-of-the-iceberg

If you check the links box you will find a couple of other related articles on the subject, all fairly well written. Some interesting stuff in there about the perpetual losers in the league who are rewarded with good picks year after year. Also no surprise that there are a few GMs in the league that are not particularly hard workers. No names are given, but you sort of get the drift. Some teams have built a losing culture and find it profitable (or easier) to maintain that rather than to be in the hunt for a title.

Also, there is an interesting take on the OKC model and why it is not really a model for other teams to predictably follow.

 

Yeah I don't know what Murray was thinking drafting that pretty boy Parsons. Even if it was in the second round that scrub is still a waste of a pick.