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the Chris Carter thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by awc713, Jul 3, 2015.

  1. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I read somewhere that all-or-nothing type hitters did not have a synergistic effect, but it didn't hurt team output either. The article said there was a synergistic effect from on base guys.
     
  2. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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  3. Major

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    I agree a in theoretical sense that consistent hitters seems like they would be better for the offense than a streaky guy with the same overall stats. I'm just wondering if there's something specific to the hitters picked for this team. We have a super-stats-geek front office and they put together an offense that, on paper, seems like a bit of a all-or-nothing trainwreck. But not only are they good, they seem to consistently overperform what they should be doing based on the statistics. So I just wonder if we're just getting lucky, or if the front office knows something the rest of us don't.

    Sealclubber - I agree with on the "where does Carter go from here?" question. But it's also affected by how good the potential replacement needs to be. If a mildly better hitter would actually make the offense worse by reducing the synergies, then Carter gets more rope, because it's going to harder/more expensive to get a player needed to improve the overall offense.
     
  4. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    For the record... what I said (and i'm still saying) is that prior to last season, he had never had a "hot streak" like the one he had from July-September... and that streak was ultimately necessary to get his numbers back to his "career averages".

    Prior to that hot streak, he was at a the low point to his career thus far:
    .181/.263/.399.

    As of today, his numbers are as follows:
    .193/.309/.396

    He will now officially need to duplicate the extended hot streak that has only happened once before... with less of the season to make it happen (as compared to last year).... to come close to matching last year's (and his career) numbers. There's also the increased importance on wins/team results this year that wasn't necessarily as important last year, and that will play into lineup decisions down the stretch.

    If it happens (the full Carter rebound)... he is one hell of a statistical anomaly (in that he's exceedingly inconsistently consistent).
     
  5. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    He's not in the lineup again tonight... 3rd non-start in the last 2 weeks.

    I do think they have concerns about him that go beyond "lineup synergy" and "all-or-nothing power".
     
  6. Major

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    By the same token, prior to last year, he hadn't had a cold streak like that either.

    But I don't think the goal is that get to his career numbers or match last year. If he has an 0.825 OPS the rest of this year (well below his closing last year), he's still going to be very helpful to this team the rest of the way, which is all that matters. The focus should be on what seal suggested - "what does he do from here" rather than "what will his overall season look like".

    Certainly - they have the concern of whether he sucks or not. And whether Singleton can be substantially better to overcome any synergy concerns.
    Or whether Singleton is potentially also an all-or-nothing power hitter that might also fit the profile of the type of player they want there. But that's an easy test with no real long-term ramifications (vs making a trade). If Singleton sucks, they can always just go back to Carter and no harm done.

    We really don't know what the Astros braintrust's rationale is. Was Carter the best of some mediocre options when they were teambuilding this offseason? Or do they actually value that type of hitter more than a different type of "better" hitter?
     
  7. Buck Turgidson

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    All the lefties versus Kluber. Wish Valbuena was around too.
     
  8. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    The offense isn't outperforming or creating any synergy that I can see. The offense is scoring 4.56 r/g. The offense's base runs is nearly identical at 4.66 r/g. The thing I see are the Astros are not scared by "flawed" players so of course they are going to end up getting players that other teams don't value as much.

    The Astros collection of good position players is about average. The Astros collection of bad position players is one of the best in the league.
     
  9. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Carter could have dH'd. They went with Gattis over him.
     
  10. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Except he's right back there now... with far more of this season (and last season) being of the "cold" variety (sample size keeps growing)... and with the "cold" numbers closer to his "career" numbers (mostly represented by the consistent 2013 season) than the 2 month hot streak of 2014.

    The goal is also not to have a sub .400 slugging percentage either. That is bad... that needs to be better no matter how you slice up his "good" games over a minuscule stretch.

    No, but they're no longer just "automatically" pencilling him in as soon as they have more options up.... That can possibly get further extended when they try to find a place for Lowrie when he's back.

    We all know the Astros value power... of which slugging percentage is a decent metric of a certain player's power. They also value defense (with shifts included) and speed. With another virtual DH performing better (in the Astros eyes) than Carter right now, you don't really have any other place to put him except in the field (where I maintain his poor offense does not make up for his defensive shortcomings).
     
  11. Major

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    Right - but he has a career SLG of 0.450. So you don't need a "hot streak" for him to be valuable - there's really no purpose of looking at what numbers he would need to get his season totals to his career numbers. What's important is what you need him to do from today through the end of the season, and whether we think he can do it. Benching him because he can't get his season numbers to a reasonable level is silly. Benching him because you think he's not going to improve this season is smart.

    So all that to say, Sealclubber's version of your viewpoint makes more sense than your correction of your viewpoint. :)

    As they should be - because the longer he is "cold", the more likely that he's just having a bad season and it will continue. I'm just suggesting that his season-long numbers and the need for a "hot" streak are unnecessary. He really just needs to be his average self to be a useful piece. (and his overall career average includes 2 massive cold streaks and 1 massive hot streak.)

    But if they think his value goes beyond his core numbers, then the threshold to replace him will be higher (this was my original point).
     
  12. Major

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    They are outperforming in that their runs scored is #2 in the league while their peripheral stats (OPS, OBP, SLG, AVG, etc) are all lower than that.
     
  13. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    Amazing Stat of the year

    In his 3rd season with the team

    Chris Carter is now 14th ALL TIME in strikeouts for the Astros, with 515

    This is his 3rd year

    He is 14th ALL TIME
     
  14. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine

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    Cut Carter... not so cute and funny any more.
     
  15. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    Well, he's 17th (almost 16th) in home runs... so there's that. :grin:
     
  16. edwardc

    edwardc Member

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    Sometime you just gotta let him play it's been 3 straight game he hasn't started and 3 loses he was still second in HR's and 3rd in RBI's keep him in the lineup they knew he as well as some of the other guys were all high strikeout guys.
     
  17. Mattician

    Mattician Member

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    What happened to the Chris Carter after the all-star break last year?
     
  18. edwardc

    edwardc Member

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  19. Major

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    Since the ASB, the Astros are 6-1 in games that Carter has started. They are 5-6 in the other games. :p
     
  20. rocketpower2

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    Gomez, dude. Have some plate discipline.
     

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