The China Superpower Hoax

So this thread has degraded into whether China has the power to control the rest of the world.
I just don't see the point.

 

China is not the superpower that establish a hegemonic or bipolar world order. Duh! And I doubt that's what you meant.

All I have been hearing from you is parade of horribles behind China's "apparent" economic growth. Ok, I hear that. Does that prove China is a superpower in any sense. Not even remotely related.

 

In China, $60,000.00 can easily pay for the costs and expanses of most retirees for the rest of their lives. Elderly Chinese are not splurgers and spenders - they know how to apportion their spending accordingly. They lead a very healthy lifestyle (which minimizes healthcare issues and costs) and accumulate minimal baggage (again, minimizing costs). They own the roof over their heads (Chinese are very very particular about owning their own property... debt free). And their favourite pastime is taking care of their grandchildren.

Oh, and BTW, it is culture and tradition for Chinese children to take care of their parents in their old age.....

 

I was just in the PRC a few weeks ago and I think they are certainly headed to super power status. Obviously they have problems such as while Shanghai is a world class city a lot of rural China is worse off than rural Indonesia but in terms of their importance to the global economy and their expanding world wide influence I think within a decade or two they will reach super power status.

I think looking at things like per capita GDP and purchasing power is missing the forest for the trees. You can take tons of factors that show weakness in the PRC, just like you can with the US, but "super-power" is a term primarily based on perception and I have no doubt that the Chinese and much of the world will see the PRC as a super power eventually.

 

When I was in college I was heavily into reading articles by Henry Liu on his website http://www.henryckliu.com/. I really didn't know a whole bunch about economics, energy industries, financial markets, etc and I still don't, but his stuff was fun to read. He is always hyping China as the new hegemonic power.

 

Oh no. I would be banned from posting on the internet. Whatever would I do?

The human history is one of incremental innovations. Both Google and China are mere examples.

I can't help getting a chuckle out of this.

1. India Times is a credible major financial institution now? Wow. Even if you ignore the credible part, last time I checked, it's in the publishing business.

2. KingCheetah's moronic point (or lack thereof) was that it is "unlikely" China has a greater than 50% savings rate. Your pathetic post show the possibility that it MAY not have one in the future, which re-affirming that China's savings rate IS greater than 50% now. Do I have to draw you a picture on how you just made yourself look even more stupid?

3. Essentially what India Times is saying is that China's Marginal Propensity to Consume will increase in China over the next decade, indicating a decrease in savings rate. Holy *****. What a shock. The Chinese government only has been trying to boost private consumption for the past decade. And Chinese consumption has grown exponentially over the past two decades. The only problem, their real wage has grown exponentially beyond that, leading to an even higher savings rate over the past decade.

Over the next decade, the Chinese government is trying to increase the "quality" of growth while reducing the "quantity" of growth, especially through boosting of consumption. This will mean a higher boost of consumption relative to real wage, leading to lower savings rates. What a *****ing concept. Demographics has **** to do with it.

For some REAL analysis, here's a pretty good one from Citigroup on the 12th FYP. For example, did you know that China's growth target for the 11th FYP was 7.5%. Unfortunately they wildly exceeded that:

https://www.citigroupgeo.com/pdf/SAP40222.pdf

On real wage:

On structural reforms:

 

Wake me when China builds a functional aircraft carrier.

 

I will wake you. By that time, the Kowloon Tether Project will be all over except for the rending of garments and the gnashing of teeth - we need not worry.

 

Geez, more amateurishness

Corrections. Measured against a standard basket of goods, after accounting for other compensations and benefits, the real wage in the US/Europe/Japan has stagnated. What you define as compensation is already included in the standard basket of goods. To quote them is an amateurish case of double counting only you would try to pull off.

And all those benefits lead to an unsustainable life-style which will have to drop. If you haven't been keeping up with the news. The S&P just had the first ever full decade of negative growth, at -0.9% for the decade ending in 2009.

What has been sustaining your current life-style over the past 30 years has been a rabid expansion of credit. Sounds familiar? It should. It's called the credit bubble. And until you pop it, it's gonna flow from sector to sector to sector, such as tech, to property, to banking. Sound familiar again?

And hey, several months back Bank of America, Citigroup and JP MorganChase just issued some new CLO's. The first since the financial crisis. Jumbo loans. To be fair, it look like pretty decent collateral quality, especially nowadays. The more scary thing is that the head of Citi Mortgage is on the record for saying he wants to focus more on jumbo loans.

So there ya have it. We're moving from sub-primes to jumbos.

And last time I checked, the average Chinese is not going out and spending like it's 1999, or 2012, whichever.

Which part of "demographics is an easy problem to fix" don't you understand?

Oh god, more math/economic lessons. Let's see if I can make this simple for you. China GDP growth positive. China grow. Meaning, if China I drops, it could only mean C, G or NX increased. Get it?

Your assertion that China's economy is not growing enough to make them rich because it has a low C is sheer idiocy.

I've never said China IS a superpower. Last time I checked, no credible financial institution analyst, politician, academic, etc etc etc said that China IS a superpower. Last time I checked, they said China is developed from a regional power to a major power and will be a superpower.

And the fact of the matter is, under it's current major power status, China already enjoys significant clout. When China's comprehensive strength reaches 80 - 85% that of the US, it wouldn't need to worry about the US' defensive umbrella over Taiwan and no one's gonna give a rat's ass about whether it is a superpower.

And that is assuming the US doesn't stumble along the way...

 

This topic is a big strawman.

I don't think China wants the responsibilities of a superpower. They'll milk the prestige for whatever it's worth though.

 

So what's your point by pulling stuff like this all over the web? Is China a superpower or not?

 

That's a joke. Last time I checked, forget superpowers, even minor nations exercised whatever clout, political, economic, military or otherwise, to further the agenda, political, economical, military or otherwise.

Suggesting that China flexing its muscle (it didn't) as a sign of weakness is a monumental joke, kind of like you, or the US housing market.

 

Are you serious? If you are, you need to get your head checked.

 

Corrections. Allegedly cutting exports of a raw resource as a result of a Chinese fisherman on CHINESE (or at least, disputed) WATERS. Don't let facts get in the way of your bullsh1t or anything. If anything, the response, or the lack thereof rather, should have been stronger.