Since the board is full of discussions about what to do now after Bosh's return to Miami, including about the decision on matching Parsons, I think it is useful to lay out what the cap situation looks like right now with or without matching Parsons. Please note that for for the purpose of this discussion, I am assuming that Lin and Asik will be traded as agreed to. While technically the trades are not final yet, it's a bad policy to go back on your word. However, the team can fold one or both of these deals into a larger transaction if need be (could have been a Bosh S&T if Bosh had agreed, but also other trades involving a large contract). I am also assuming that the salary cap for the 2015/16 season is going to be $66M. I recall reading this projection somewhere (Larry Coon?). It's only a projection and can go higher or lower, but probably dramatically so. SCENARIO I: Not Matching Parsons Here's what the numbers look like if Houston lets Parsons go: Spoiler <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table { border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif font-size: 12px; } .tableizer-table td { padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc; } .tableizer-table th { background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold; } </style><table class="tableizer-table"> <tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th> No Match Parsons </th><th> </th><th> </th></tr> <tr><td> Player </td><td> 2014/2015 </td><td> 2015/2016 </td></tr> <tr><td> Dwight Howard </td><td> $21,436,271 </td><td> $22,359,364 </td></tr> <tr><td> James Harden </td><td> $14,728,844 </td><td> $15,756,438 </td></tr> <tr><td> Chandler Parsons </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Terrence Jones </td><td> $1,618,680 </td><td> $2,489,530 </td></tr> <tr><td> Donatas Motiejunas </td><td> $1,483,920 </td><td> $2,288,205 </td></tr> <tr><td> Josh Powell </td><td> $1,310,286 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Omri Casspi </td><td> $1,063,384 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Patrick Beverley </td><td> $915,243 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Isaiah Canaan </td><td> $816,482 </td><td> $947,276 </td></tr> <tr><td> Robert Covington </td><td> $816,482 </td><td> $947,276 </td></tr> <tr><td> Roster Charges </td><td> $1,522,008 </td><td> $3,150,558 </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Team Salary </td><td> $45,711,600 </td><td> $47,938,647 </td></tr> <tr><td> Cap Level </td><td> $63,065,000 </td><td> $66,000,000 </td></tr> <tr><td> Cap Room </td><td> $17,353,400 </td><td> $18,061,353 </td></tr> </table> The team can have more than $17M in cap room this summer (maybe more if it waives or trades some of the smaller salary guys) if it renounces all cap exceptions (trade exceptions generated from Lin/Asik trades, MLE, BAE) except for the Room Exception. Also, for summer 2015, the Rockets can have more than $18M but ONLY if the team doesn't sign anyone to a significant deal guaranteed for more than one season. So, if you sign, say, Luol Deng to a $12M/yr contract that lasts for more than a year, then say goodbye to that 2015 cap room. Scenario II: Matching Parsons This is how the numbers look like during what remains of the 3 day matching period, when Parsons counts for $2.88M, his qualifying offer. Spoiler <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table { border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif font-size: 12px; } .tableizer-table td { padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc; } .tableizer-table th { background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold; } </style><table class="tableizer-table"> <tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th> Match Parsons -Before Matching </th><th> </th><th> </th></tr> <tr><td> Player </td><td> 2014/2015 </td><td> 2015/2016 </td></tr> <tr><td> Dwight Howard </td><td> $21,436,271 </td><td> $22,359,364 </td></tr> <tr><td> James Harden </td><td> $14,728,844 </td><td> $15,756,438 </td></tr> <tr><td> Chandler Parsons </td><td> $2,875,130 </td><td> $15,361,500 </td></tr> <tr><td> Terrence Jones </td><td> $1,618,680 </td><td> $2,489,530 </td></tr> <tr><td> Donatas Motiejunas </td><td> $1,483,920 </td><td> $2,288,205 </td></tr> <tr><td> Josh Powell </td><td> $1,310,286 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Omri Casspi </td><td> $1,063,384 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Patrick Beverley </td><td> $915,243 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Isaiah Canaan </td><td> $816,482 </td><td> $947,276 </td></tr> <tr><td> Robert Covington </td><td> $816,482 </td><td> $947,276 </td></tr> <tr><td> Roster Charges </td><td> $1,014,672 </td><td> $2,625,465 </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Team Salary </td><td> $48,079,394 </td><td> $62,775,054 </td></tr> <tr><td> Cap Level </td><td> $63,065,000 </td><td> $66,000,000 </td></tr> <tr><td> Cap Room </td><td> $14,985,606 </td><td> $3,224,946 </td></tr> </table> The team can have roughly $15M of cap space (again, more if it manages to trade/waive some of the smaller and/or non-guaranteed deals) if it renounces all cap exceptions (trade exception, MLE, BAE) but the Room Exception. Given the size of Parsons' contract, the Rockets would not have any 2015-16 cap room. After the matching period expires, if Houston matches, then Parsons counts as $14.7M, and the salary situation looks like this: Spoiler <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table { border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif font-size: 12px; } .tableizer-table td { padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc; } .tableizer-table th { background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold; } </style><table class="tableizer-table"> <tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th> Matching Parsons - After Matching </th><th> </th><th> </th></tr> <tr><td> Player </td><td> 2014/2015 </td><td> 2015/2016 </td></tr> <tr><td> Dwight Howard </td><td> $21,436,271 </td><td> $22,359,364 </td></tr> <tr><td> James Harden </td><td> $14,728,844 </td><td> $15,756,438 </td></tr> <tr><td> Chandler Parsons </td><td> $14,700,000 </td><td> $15,361,500 </td></tr> <tr><td> Terrence Jones </td><td> $1,618,680 </td><td> $2,489,530 </td></tr> <tr><td> Donatas Motiejunas </td><td> $1,483,920 </td><td> $2,288,205 </td></tr> <tr><td> Josh Powell </td><td> $1,310,286 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Omri Casspi </td><td> $1,063,384 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Patrick Beverley </td><td> $915,243 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Isaiah Canaan </td><td> $816,482 </td><td> $947,276 </td></tr> <tr><td> Robert Covington </td><td> $816,482 </td><td> $947,276 </td></tr> <tr><td> Roster Charges </td><td> $1,014,672 </td><td> $2,625,465 </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Team Salary </td><td> $59,904,264 </td><td> $62,775,054 </td></tr> <tr><td> Cap Level </td><td> $63,065,000 </td><td> $66,000,000 </td></tr> <tr><td> Cap Room </td><td> $3,160,736 </td><td> $3,224,946 </td></tr> </table> The team wouldn't really have the meaningful cap room this summer. However, it will have all of the trade exceptions, MLE and BAE with which to take on more $s via FA signing or trades. Signing Parsons would foreclose the option of having 2015 cap room (except if you trade one of the large contracts on the books-- Parsons, Dwight or Harden).
is there a way we can use our cap and preserve our mle? maybe make asik into a 3-way deal getting some talent back?
We can also max out our cap on other players within the next two days and still match him right? Divide up the money we were going to pay Bosh?
We can't "use the cap" and have the MLE, but we can use Asik's or Lin's outgoing salary to make a deal and preserve MLE, which is what I think you are proposing.
You're forgetting the trade exceptions that are generated by the Lin/Asik trades, assuming those have already been finalized. Basically at 2x $8.3mil "salary filler" to all the above calculations until the Rockets sign a FA with capspace. Also, 2015 capspace would never happen regardless of Parsons' situation. The Rockets aren't going to go Lakers and fill the roster with 1yr contracts.
I specifically mentioned those trade exceptions. The Asik exception will be < $8.3M due to the structure of that deal.
No. It's either or. They can, however, organize a 3 team trade in which they receive dunleavy, the pelicans get Asik, and the bulls get cap space or nonguaranteed contracts.
The main takeaway from these numbers, to me, is this: Declining to match Chandler Parsons really doesn't give the Rockets much meaningful additional cap flexibility when you compare the two scenarios.
It looks like the best thing to do is spend in the next two days (flip Asik/Lin into better role players) and match. Stop chasing the stars, rely on Howard/Harden to play like stars, and build a supporting cast.
Morey has to find one or two players to use our cap space on right now before we match Parsons. Either way, if Morey does or doesn't find those players, we HAVE to match Parsons to stay relevant for the conversation of championship. I don't know who, that's Morey's job, but he has to get the best he can to help our bench become elite, because we will still have the same starting 5 that we won 54 games with last season. Morey has about $15 million in cap space over the next two days to figure out how to give us an excellent bench, or upgrade Bev or TJones while still keeping them as the backup. His reputation is riding on the next two days....even though I think he has done a very good job. Bosh just kind of pissed on us for the money.
That is what I meant. Make a trade involving Asik (or Lin) and sending the TPE to a third team for some talent. We need to add as much talent as we possibly can to make this offseason not a complete disaster.
What is the rule on when the Heat can trade Bosh? Obviously not right away they can't do a sign and trade with the extra 5th year anymore, but eventually he has to be able to be traded right? Maybe we can snag him later in 2015?
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Per <a href="https://twitter.com/NBAPR">@NBAPR</a>, Salary Cap for 2014-15 $63.065 million ... tax level is $76.829 million ... minimum team salary is $56.759 million ...</p>— Jonathan Feigen (@Jonathan_Feigen) <a href="https://twitter.com/Jonathan_Feigen/statuses/486979388207300608">July 9, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Why would they trade him? He and Dwayne will still make a couple of playoff appearances, and with such a weak east they could even make a run to the ECF (most likely just the east semis though, depending on health of Wade and other teams players)
I would like to see the Rockets match Parsons and and use the 15 mil as best they can over the next 2 days. Shawn Marion would be one of my top targets. He can back up the 3 and 4 and he is an elite defender and can hit the 3 ball.
I think we should try and do a deal with the Suns for Bledsoe, and then sign Parsons. Then try to improve the 4. Not ideal, but better than signing a few old guys looking for their last contract with the caproom. Bledsoe has potential and we need a good point.
I would: 1. Call Melo and beg, offer contracts to Gasol/Deng/Ariza, offer a sign and trade for Bledsoe (all long shots) 2. Match Parsons contract If #1 fails - use MLE and roll with the TPEs.
