Update: Looks like the tricky math just got trickier with the Parsons news. First, there is basically now no way of signing Bosh straight-up to a max contract. If Parsons accepts the Mavs offer sheet, his cap hold stays at the qualifying offer of $2.88M and cannot be dropped down to $1.76M even temporarily. So, this means that the most that the Rockets can offer Bosh straight up is now roughly only $19M even with only keeping Howard, Harden, Parsons and Beverley. Second, the flexibility in the Bosh via S&T scenario under the hard cap at the apron is basically gone. $14.5M in year 1 for Parsons is basically going to require Houston to fill 7 roster spots via minimum contracts.
Parsons might be gone regardless. Would rather try and S&T for Bosh and then use the MLE/BAE to fill our SF need and bench help.
What if the Rockets keep Asik and Lin, then sign Deng. No match for Parson, unless Dallas willing to help out with a S&T for more assets. Bev/Lin Harden/Johnson Deng/Covington Jones/D-Mo Howard/Asik Rockets can still combine assets & picks for potential trades before the trade deadline in 2015. The roster above may not have a true 3rd star, but it is just as good, maybe a tad better defensively, as a Rockets team that came in 4th in the West. Sometimes the best moves are not the big ones.
If we were to somehow end up with two TPE's, both of them set at $8.6m (from Asik and Lin), could we combine $8.6m (one full TPE) and $3.4m (partial TPE) in a sign and trade to get Luol Deng signed and traded to us at $12m/year? I imagine the Cavs would be willing to do that for just a second round pick.
I did the math and tried to come up with the best possible (and realistic) roster underneath the hard cap Beverley/Nelson/Canaan Harden/Daniels/Johnson Parsons/Garcia Bosh/Jones/Covington Howard/Aldrich Howard 21.5 million Bosh 20.7 million Harden 14.7 Parsons 14.7 Jones 1.6 Garcia 1.4 Nelson 1.4 Daniels 1 Aldrich 1 Beverley .9 Canaan .8 Covington .8 Johnson .6 = roughly 81
So 6-7 Min contracts: - Rob Covington (backup SF, likely improvement over Casspi/Garcia) - Troy Daniels (difficult but possible) - Nick Johnson (as combo guard) - Elton Brand (as backup big) - Chris Andersen - Drew Gooden - Emeka Okafor - Somebody among Chalmers, Mo williams, Ear Watson, Bayless...Udrih... - Jordan Hamilton - Rashard Lewis - Gustavo Ayon - Nazr Mohammed - Greg Stiemsma - Andris Biedrins - Kenyon Martin - Even the freaking Aaron Brooks, and Royce White. Even then you could build a decent bench.
I think you have to let him walk. $15 million for Parsons completely removes all of our flexibility. Use cap to sign free agents and our overseas guys after you can confirm a SnT with Miami.
...I think that is the whole point with the Mavs offer - the timing and amount was meant to hurt our chances to get stronger in the same conference as the Mavs. I think most teams would overpay a free agent by a few million yearly if it made their team better AND weakened a division rival. There is a return on that investment for Dallas.
Do you really think Morey wouldn't contemplate at the moment he decided to make Parsons a RFA, the possibility of Dallas doing that move, at that date, and any other ways whereby they could annoy Houston with a potential offer (like he would do being at Cuban's position)? Honestly...
I'm positive Morey conceived this risk - I didn't think I implied otherwise. I'm just saying this is Dallas intentionally complicating the math. ...honestly if Morey had let Parsons go next year, Dallas would had cap room to do the same thing and he might be competing with even more teams then with no right to match. Right now Parsons is one of about 7 or 8 decent wing players on the market. Next year he is one of about 2 or 3. I think this was the better long term play for how they managed Parsons contract. I don't think anyone believes Parsons value would go any lower in a year to make him more attainable....
These are veterans, which means they can only sign to veteran minimum correct? All of those players have 8, 9 10+ years in the league which means they'd cost 1.4 million each, we could not afford that. We can only afford rookie league minimum contracts at 500k-800k.
what big free agents would we even be in contention for in the next 3-4 years? if our core is harden parsons bosh howard, how much flexibility do we really need? also, why the hell do people want luol deng? he has a ton of mileage on his legs.
