Has anybody not seized on the fact that Jim Lampley wrote this article? What about Larry Merchant? WHAT ABOUT LARRY MERCHANT?
I suppose this is good news for conservatives. They can win any election they choose to. No need to raise campaign $$ or anything anymore.
Thanks. Lampley's article ties into this article somewhat. Exit polls have been historically reliable, with a very small margin of error. Now, if the exit polls show that Kerry won, but the votes said Bush won, there is valid reason to have some suspicion. To push it aside would be ignorant.
To push it aside is politically expedient. The truth is that pollsters need to get this matter cleared up for their own benefit. If not, I suspect that poiticians would not value getting their polls as much; thus, the price the pollsters charge will have to drop. Maybe there is a long term good waiting to happen here via polls falling out of favor.
slickvik, obviously you have been owned severely already in this thread, but just to add on to the shaming, it's important to note that those voters most disgusted with what has gone on in DC are the ones most likely to voice opinions. As a result, you have a skewed sampling of data -- leading to skewed odds. That said, bigtexxx's post complete invalidates your entire premise. Go back to being a rap promoter, rookie.
It's statistics 101. Go ask any math Ph.D around in your area and he'll explain it to you. You ever wonder how they know that 20 million people watched American Idol. They don't call up each person individually nor does every TV have that Nielson device attached. With a random sampling of the population, you can extract the the data needed with a mere 3-5% inaccuracy more of less.
it can't be a perfectly random sample of anything other than those who were able to vote before businesses closed. so it's random...but incomplete data. look...maybe the whole thing was fixed. maybe it's worthy of millions of dollars of resources spent investigating it. but i think that's giving pollsters just a bit too much credit.
I heard about that too. It's strange how thousands of exit pollers significantly deviated from polling everyone equally and all the late afternoon/evening polling data was missing. Polling has gone on for a long time now, you'd think it's been perfected or at least accurate. Very strange.
I'm not arguing the election was fixed, I'm arguing that polls are very accurate. The reason exit polls are among the most accurate of polls is the fact that the "random" sample is actually a HUGE portion of the entire sample. Most polls use maybe 1000 people to extract data from 1000000. That's a mere 1% of the entire sample. Exit polls on the other hand use a sample size of maybe 25-50% or more, which is HUGE. That makes exit polls very, very accurate.
very accurate if you're trying to determine votting patterns among the people who voted before they stopped polling.
http://www.vote.caltech.edu/media/documents/VotingMachines3.pdf Here's a CALTECH/MIT analysis. I don't think these guys know boxing like Jim Lampley though...
Polling began in 1948, and just as Lampley said "NEVER have exit polls varied by beyond-error margins in a single state." Yet that happened in 10 states in the past election. Keep in mind, this has never happened before. It's not like exit polling isn't reliable, it's been used since 1948 and in every state it has been accurate in every presidential election until this one. For it to be off by a large percentage margin just is statistically IMPOSSIBLE. BigTexx's response to the article was that it was a "chain letter" and that Lampley didn't really write it. He backed up his claims with ZERO evidence. For you to agree with him, well that speaks for itself. I think you're the one that just got owned.
Their summary states that "problems" with the electronic voting machines does not explain the discrepancy.
I just want to say, this may be the best forum on the BBS. I appreciate all the great intellectual discussion on this forum. There's a lot of intelligent people here, like MadMax, No Worries, and MartianMan just to name a few. Keep up the good work!
Because of their "good work", does Max, No Worries, and MartianMan get the chance to guest on the next OCP album??
