The Big Risk We Should Consider (not a short post)

I basically agree with the OP's opening assessment of the likelihood of us improving if we stand pat. It's about probability/likelihood, not possibility/best-case scenario.

1. The probability of Chris Paul being healthier (and thus missing less games in the playoffs) next year is low.
2. The probability of players like Ariza, Tucker, Moute, and Gordon being significantly better is low. Some of them might shoot better and some might shoot worse, just by virtue of the fluctuation of the average.
3. The probability of Harden going up one more level is low. He might be able to add a couple more moves to his game. He might be able to play even better defense consistently. But that's about it. It is of course possible that he can jump to another level. But we are talking about probability.
4. Pretty much the only significant piece that will likely improve is Capela.
5. The Warriors are not getting worse unless injuries happen to two of their top 5 guys.
6. When both teams are fully healthy, the Warriors are clearly the better team. Rockets fans, don't kid yourself. The WCF showed us how hard it is to beat them. We have to play full intensity defense for 48 minutes a game and hit our shots at the other end to have a chance. That is hardly sustainable for a whole playoffs series.

Is it possible that we can beat the Warriors as is? Absolutely. Is it probable? No.

But the OP's solution is Cousins. How probable is it that Cousins will be fully healthy and can gel with the team in time? Not very likely, IMO.

 

Rockets were and are clearly the better team(even with the princes injury) it was obvious even to the reggie miller, a huge rockets hater(what is unheard of), that the refs saved the worriers asses

 

Truth

Rocket River

 

I can live with cousins, we don’t really need anybody else, we just need to be healthy.

 

And the refs will swing to our favor? I didn't even mention about the officiating as a factor.

Did you see how hard we had to play defense in those games and we barely beat them two times out of three victories? People point to the 0-27 3pt shooting in Game 7. But that could very well be the tired legs resulted from the defensive intensity we had to sustain for so long. The minute you let your guard down, they go into a run and the game is out of reach.

 

Even with a historically bad shooting. . . . .they did not blow us out .. . they still NEEDED the ref's assistance
That is how much better the Rockets were .. . . .WITHOUT CHRIS PAUL, while MBAH MOUTE was injured and Ryno being an aboslute ZERO

I think . . contrary to popular belief. . .these rooks might see some playing time

Rocket River

 

I don't disagree with you. But what you say is irrelevant. We are not talking about what could have been, or what might be, or how we were screwed by the refs. It's all good to feel better about the loss.

We are talking about what is likely going to happen if the Rockets bring back basically the same roster against the same Warriors roster.

Is Chris Paul likely to be fully healthy come playoffs time? It's no use claiming what could have happened had Paul not gotten injured. The fact is, he has a history of being injured in the playoffs and he did the past playoffs. And he is going to be one year older.

And what's the use of talking about Ryno? Is it likely that he will be a stud next year?

 

i honestly don't think the warriors will be better and instead will continue to drop off. this past season was already tough for them and it's not like the team really gets along that well either. the players all do their own thing, and they only acknowledge durant as a necessity to win, not someone who they actually enjoy playing with. igoudala is only going to go more downhill from here, what with his nagging hip and other ailments. curry hasn't come close to his peak mvp form of 3 years ago and i don't see him suddenly reversing the trend either. draymond has slowed down, and if not for the refs letting him grab and pull everything in sight, his defense was actually suspect all season long, even in the playoffs. kd is the warriors one cure-all for everything that might knock them off the top. and if we're worried about the rockets being healthy all season, it's only fair to share that same view with the warriors.

i honestly wouldn't mind if the rockets run it back with the same core and add a few quality vets in free agency and by the feb trade deadline. it's the team we fell in love with the past season and we all felt deserved to win. if lebron comes or morey swings a big trade for some star, that's fine. but like harden said, this team already has enough and showed enough to everyone to deserve that respect.

and maybe one of the rooks will be a pleasant surprise, you never know.

 

The OP's first point says the Rox are an old team but then his solution is to trade away the team's only good young player for another soon to be old player coming of a devastating injury.

WTF

 

This thread is insane for so many reasons...

1. Cousins is dooky
2. Cousins doesn’t fit at all with our team.
3. Cousins is coming off a huge injury
4. Cousins will want a near max
5. We don’t have ANY cap space.
6. Clint is a RFA ( can’t practically be traded)
7. Clint is a 23 year old beast
8. Clint has chemistry with team already
9. Clint is healthy and young

 

as absurd as it sounds if we avoid cousins its more likely they will

 

1) the probability of CP3 being healthier or not is greater or worse than it was last year, because it was within the standard deviation for how many games he misses every year.

2) the probability of them being worst is also extremely low. Trevor Ariza shooting 0/12 is likely a 6 sigma event if we had a big enough sample size

3) Harden has improved or added something to his game every single year. The probability that he doesn’t improve is extremely low, empirically.

4) You’re again arguing that Harden will not do something that he’s done for his entire career.

5) the warriors are not getting worse, but the rockets are? Why is that? They arguably have more evidence of decline, since they were clearly worse this year than in years past.

6) The WCFs were definitive proof that the warriors are completely reliant on the refs tiring out their opposition with constant no calls, as well as increasing their likelihood of injury.

It’s probably not coincidence that all of GSW’s opponents get injured. No calls leads to over exertion, which leads to injury. If you think the warriors stood a chance this series without favorable calls, then you are either ignoring the facts, or you are completely insane.

 

This is a homer view.

Iggy was also injured AND its not like there weren’t favorable calls the Rockets way. There were.

Was it 50/50 in terms of calls? I don’t really think so but then I’m a homer too! But it definitely wasn’t Lakers-Kings or anything close to that craziness.

In any case be it age, injuries or refs... it be crazy to expect to run it back and have a different outcome. The OP is right on most points. Except Cousins lol.

 

I agree. Iggy was a big part of their team he is like their Luc except better because he was Finals MVP and Luc was signed for vet min.

However except for wishing for good health for the Rox and bad health for GSW I'm not sure we can do a damn thing if Lebron or PG or Kawhi dont come. The team has no capspace and what we have is too good to mess up unless a star player comes.

The best thing to do is bring everyone back and hope for the best, the two rooks we got look promising maybe they will contribute. The Rox should follow Mavs style of being contenders long enough to squeak one in.

 

The calls were like 75/25 against the Rockets
Iggys is good but I think his impact was equal to Mbah Moute
My point about Ryno was. . . . he was a Zero. I guess the Panicking ideal seems to be The Rockets were just Lucky in a One Off year
I don't think that is the case
I think the Rockets are the Equals to the Warrirors
I think REFS had more to do with the two loses than anything

Will Paul go down again next year . . . Possible
Iggy is a year older than Chris

I am not calling for standing pat
but
I am not calling for Boogie Cousins nor am I willing to fold and call it a season if nothing happens

I got good feelings about this squad and next season

Rocket River

 

too much of a homer view here. if people dont think GS dont make some moves to improve their depth, they're kidding themselves. And even if they're going to "drop off" like this post suggest, their ceiling was already higher than any other team in the league. The only team that gave them any trouble was Hou and we saw how small that margin for error was. So long as their 4 all nba players are healthy and playing, this will remain true.

 

Saying things like Ryan was a zero is homerism.

He was a zero because he sucked. Lol.

I’d say 60/40 on the calls. Bear in mind there’s a reason for some of the call disparity. Doesn’t matter what the rules say refs, especially in the playoffs, aren’t going to call “encroachment” on threes over and over and over. Also note there were absolutely calls that didn’t go the Warriors way. Klay has three fouls in like the first 4 minutes for example.

I’m a big fan of Luc and think he definitely could make a difference but no way in equating him to Iggy... but clearly the rockets were the more injured team.

With all that it was still just the warriors doing their third quarter thing.

The biggest impact bar none and making everything else mute was CP3. So ultimately it comes down to can he stay healthy and/or can they add another player of his caliber.

 

Their "Third Quarter thing" is simply Ref Aided.

I think the biggest thing the rockets have to deal with is how to not get flustered by the Refs
The biggest thing LeBron brings is that we won't be as f*cked by the Refs

Rocket River

 

No, their third quarter thing isn't because of refs. To the extent the game is called differently in the third quarter... well the GSW play the game differently in the third quarter and are the aggressors, etc.

The third quarter thing didn't happen nearly as much with CP3 on the floor. It helps when you have more than one star, for sure.