The Big Risk We Should Consider (not a short post)

joshuaao · Jun 27, 2018

Mathloom said: ↑

I don't know if he's as effective a rim protector as Capela, but he is certainly capable of shutting down the likes of Green, McGee, Looney, etc. My higher concern with his defense is he was too big to be effective on a switch like Capela, and if he loses a further step then he is likely a major liability to that end.
Click to expand...

Cousins' +/- against the Warriors has consistently been negative. Even though Capela was neutralized on offense in the WCF, he held his own defensively. I worry that Cousins would be targeted and abused on that end.

chievous minniefield · Jun 27, 2018

treyk3 said: ↑

If we cannot get LeBron, I'd be ecstatic with adding Cousins and Nerlens Noel if Capela demands too much on the market.
Click to expand...

I have no idea if there’s a realistic path, and I’m not an insider, so take this for what it’s worth.

But last summer, I did multiple NBA2k seasons for the Rockets with Melo, Rockets with Lebron, and Rockets with Boogie.

And I was shocked at how much better the Rockets with Boogie were.

I would absolutely roll the dice. Boogie’s got a little Warrior-killer in him, too.

joshuaao · Jun 27, 2018

Would also like to point out that the only way to acquire Boogie this summer is via sign-and-trade

This would put us at a hard cap, making it very difficult to retain all of our free agents (most likely lose Ariza, maybe Luc too).

cebu · Jun 27, 2018

Wow. all that words just to sell Cousins.... that guy is mentally ill.

ZJP3 · Jun 27, 2018

YOLO said: ↑

of course the counter is always blame the team and not the player. never gets old.

no it just means he isn't good enough to impact winning as the best player
Click to expand...

Well, I would say that he impacted the Pelicans for sure. Like I said they were really starting to click before he got hurt. I'll stick with my take on the Kings. I'd say if you put Harden on that team that Cousins (or anyone really) was on he probably have a rough time too.

steddinotayto · Jun 27, 2018

If Dallas and NO offered the same money to Capela I don't see why he would want to be a Pelican.

Reeko · Jun 27, 2018

Cousins coming off a devastating Achilles injury switching out on the perimeter against GS...things will get ugly for him real quick

clutchdabear · Jun 27, 2018

there are very few rim-running centers who can also defend positions 1-5 in the league. capela is one of them. cousins, for the life of him, can't stay in front of any pg. our defensive identity carried us in the playoffs, even though our offense took all the headlines in the regular season.

any free agents we target should fit into our defensive strategy of hyper-switching.
cousins is a clear no for me.

YOLO · Jun 27, 2018

ZJP3 said: ↑

Well, I would say that he impacted the Pelicans for sure. Like I said they were really starting to click before he got hurt. I'll stick with my take on the Kings. I'd say if you put Harden on that team that Cousins (or anyone really) was on he probably have a rough time too.
Click to expand...

well hes no longer the best player

aelliott · Jun 27, 2018

Mathloom said: ↑

Let's assume we're not getting Lebron James.

Before recommending an outrageous acquisition, here are my base assumptions:

- We are an OLD TEAM. Very old. In fact, despite what Harden said the other day, we are probably the least likely team in the NBA to improve by standing pat. The Warriors will almost certainly not get worse. It does not make sense to expect us to be as competitive next season as this. The Celtics and Sixers will improve a shocking amount this offseason even if they just retain their current players. The only other threat is wherever Lebron is playing, and whether it's Cleveland (who added the #8 pick and aren't in Luxury Tax territotry) or elsewhere (where he will certainly team up with at least one other star) it's unlikely that his team next season won't be better than last. We are old and, as any well put together contender, don't have lots of flexibility to make big moves.

- Our talent inside was a problem for us against the Warriors. TUCKER AND CAPELA are both extremely hard working, and they both helped us win entire series' along the way. But you need to be able to drop the ball to one of your big men once in a blue moon (or during a historic 3-pt drought) and get a few tough buckets to be forced home. These guys can't do that. They also are not notable passers. Capela has surprised us with his development literally every season he's been here. Would it be irrational for him to have ONE offseason EVER where he doesn't improve? No. It's not irrational at all. If Capela comes back the exact same player, his track record of improvement is still stellar. The league would be in serious trouble if he came to camp able to hit 5 more percent of his free throws and 10 more percent of his hook shots. But that's not set in stone. It's a risk, and right now, it's the easiest risk to take for the Rockets. More on risk in a bit.

- What happens after CHRIS PAUL? Paul at least played Curry to a stalemate, and I know he can do it one more time. Our trainers are excellent, they will have him in better shape than he was before. He has tasted the WCF. The belief that he can still go toe-to-toe with the ex-MVP is going to be powerful. But what about the next 3-5 years while Harden is in his prime? Can we carry this project with Harden/Paul/Capela for 3-5 years with no extra money to improve the team?

- Most FA's are impossible for us to get. What I'm suggesting here is based on REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS about George, Lebron, etc. A healthy elite player is going to be dramatically harder to get, and the rest of the field might be gone by the time we're done pursuing. Do we really need a George? Even when not healthy, we were closer to the Warriors than a Paul George. And Paul George will not be here without losing important pieces.

- This is the best MDA gets. I'm resigned to this fact now.

So here's what I think. I think we should take a big risk. I don't think we should dick around with some minimum signings. I don't think we should keep the oldest team in the league intact just because we were better than the Warriors when healthy - given we will not improve and they will not get worse. What would save us is if they had an injury, but that's putting control in the hands of chance.

The risk I think we should take is to swap Clint Capela for Demarcus Cousins. Throughout the years with so many people notoriously downplaying Capela's growth I have argued fiercely against it. I know Clint Capela is a tremendous talent, and I know teams are now trying to get Capela CLONES on their squads. I know people will throw the max at him. I know he has earned the respect he's getting. I know he's young, and I know he will still improve.

I know.

I know Cousins is coming off the most devastating injury an NBA player can suffer, I know. I know he has attitude issues, I know.

I also know there is a good chance Cousins can destroy the Warriors from the inside, at a time when Paul and now finally Harden can relax about taking a lot of shots. I know that Paul could be a stabilizing force in Cousins' career. I know that Cousins might not get the max, and he almost certainly won't get a 4-5 year deal. That's the only reason we have a chance. I know that we can afford to wait 6 months for him to be in playing shape. This roster can finish 2nd in the regular season with minimal depth at C. With Ryno, Brandan Wright and Nene - this team will hold up while Cousins works his way back in.

What we if we could get him on a 3 year deal at the max? What if he recovers and suddenly you have Draymond gasping for dear life trying to guard his own man, nevermind having the room to disrupt drives from Harden/Paul? What about the passing Cousins can bring to this team, the high post play? 5-out offense? Draymond and Durant are hopeless against a 90% Cousins.

It's a big risk. I would HATE to lose Capela. Cousins can go horribly wrong. But there's a decent chance that the combination of a good team with vets and excellent trainers could make the previously impossible possible. I would do it.

I know it makes you anxious and worry about never getting to the finals again. Who cares? If it doesn't work out, we rebuild in 2 years instead of being locked in for 5.

Would love to hear some thoughts.

Click to expand...

Trading for a maxed out Cousins (SnT) would leave the Rockets over the tax apron so we would not be allowed to receive him in a SnT deal without first getting rid of a lot of salary.

Also, under this scenario, both Capela and Cousins would be BYC players. Each would only count half of their new salary for their old teams outgoing salary but count at the full amount for their new teams incoming salary. That makes the salary matching very difficult.

OldYelllowDog · Jun 27, 2018

Mathloom said: ↑

Let's assume we're not getting Lebron James.

Before recommending an outrageous acquisition, here are my base assumptions:

- We are an OLD TEAM. Very old. In fact, despite what Harden said the other day, we are probably the least likely team in the NBA to improve by standing pat. The Warriors will almost certainly not get worse. It does not make sense to expect us to be as competitive next season as this. The Celtics and Sixers will improve a shocking amount this offseason even if they just retain their current players. The only other threat is wherever Lebron is playing, and whether it's Cleveland (who added the #8 pick and aren't in Luxury Tax territotry) or elsewhere (where he will certainly team up with at least one other star) it's unlikely that his team next season won't be better than last. We are old and, as any well put together contender, don't have lots of flexibility to make big moves.

- Our talent inside was a problem for us against the Warriors. TUCKER AND CAPELA are both extremely hard working, and they both helped us win entire series' along the way. But you need to be able to drop the ball to one of your big men once in a blue moon (or during a historic 3-pt drought) and get a few tough buckets to be forced home. These guys can't do that. They also are not notable passers. Capela has surprised us with his development literally every season he's been here. Would it be irrational for him to have ONE offseason EVER where he doesn't improve? No. It's not irrational at all. If Capela comes back the exact same player, his track record of improvement is still stellar. The league would be in serious trouble if he came to camp able to hit 5 more percent of his free throws and 10 more percent of his hook shots. But that's not set in stone. It's a risk, and right now, it's the easiest risk to take for the Rockets. More on risk in a bit.

- What happens after CHRIS PAUL? Paul at least played Curry to a stalemate, and I know he can do it one more time. Our trainers are excellent, they will have him in better shape than he was before. He has tasted the WCF. The belief that he can still go toe-to-toe with the ex-MVP is going to be powerful. But what about the next 3-5 years while Harden is in his prime? Can we carry this project with Harden/Paul/Capela for 3-5 years with no extra money to improve the team?

- Most FA's are impossible for us to get. What I'm suggesting here is based on REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS about George, Lebron, etc. A healthy elite player is going to be dramatically harder to get, and the rest of the field might be gone by the time we're done pursuing. Do we really need a George? Even when not healthy, we were closer to the Warriors than a Paul George. And Paul George will not be here without losing important pieces.

- This is the best MDA gets. I'm resigned to this fact now.

So here's what I think. I think we should take a big risk. I don't think we should dick around with some minimum signings. I don't think we should keep the oldest team in the league intact just because we were better than the Warriors when healthy - given we will not improve and they will not get worse. What would save us is if they had an injury, but that's putting control in the hands of chance.

The risk I think we should take is to swap Clint Capela for Demarcus Cousins. Throughout the years with so many people notoriously downplaying Capela's growth I have argued fiercely against it. I know Clint Capela is a tremendous talent, and I know teams are now trying to get Capela CLONES on their squads. I know people will throw the max at him. I know he has earned the respect he's getting. I know he's young, and I know he will still improve.

I know.

I know Cousins is coming off the most devastating injury an NBA player can suffer, I know. I know he has attitude issues, I know.

I also know there is a good chance Cousins can destroy the Warriors from the inside, at a time when Paul and now finally Harden can relax about taking a lot of shots. I know that Paul could be a stabilizing force in Cousins' career. I know that Cousins might not get the max, and he almost certainly won't get a 4-5 year deal. That's the only reason we have a chance. I know that we can afford to wait 6 months for him to be in playing shape. This roster can finish 2nd in the regular season with minimal depth at C. With Ryno, Brandan Wright and Nene - this team will hold up while Cousins works his way back in.

What we if we could get him on a 3 year deal at the max? What if he recovers and suddenly you have Draymond gasping for dear life trying to guard his own man, nevermind having the room to disrupt drives from Harden/Paul? What about the passing Cousins can bring to this team, the high post play? 5-out offense? Draymond and Durant are hopeless against a 90% Cousins.

It's a big risk. I would HATE to lose Capela. Cousins can go horribly wrong. But there's a decent chance that the combination of a good team with vets and excellent trainers could make the previously impossible possible. I would do it.

I know it makes you anxious and worry about never getting to the finals again. Who cares? If it doesn't work out, we rebuild in 2 years instead of being locked in for 5.

Would love to hear some thoughts.

Click to expand...

You really put a lot of thought into this. Lots of words, my thoughts simple NO.

j@amc · Jun 27, 2018

I think the only way you could add Cousins would be if he came in on a flier 2-year contract. An injured Cousins probably looks lightning quick compared to Nene. And Cousins has a tremendous feel for rebounding. CP3 would make him look great.

I could make a similar case for DeAndre Jordan. CP3 makes him into a viable offensive threat. But I'm not offering him a long term deal either.

I think if we're 1) not getting LeBron and 2) getting outbid on Capela, we have to think about all our options. Cousins on a team friendly deal as he works his way back from injury would be a steal. We would, of course, be taking a gamble on his maturity which has held him back over and over again.

But I wouldn't stop there. Once Anderson is out of the way, I think we need to add a young wing to go with (or to replace Ariza). There's lots of options in this market that fit that bill.

ZJP3 · Jun 27, 2018

YOLO said: ↑

well hes no longer the best player
Click to expand...

Yeah, and he wouldn't be here. I am not saying that I want Boogie over Capela. But I think OP makes good points, and that Cousins is a top 15 player.

CALI_MOST_WANTD · Jun 27, 2018

Cousins, donkey green, "swaggy p", are a few of some players that I don't care how good they might seem to be I would never want those personalities in a rockets uniform personally. Can't stand them.

napalm06 · Jun 27, 2018

Mathloom said: ↑

we are probably the least likely team in the NBA to improve by standing pat. The Warriors will almost certainly not get worse.
Click to expand...

This is a baseless premise, so it was hard for me to take the rest seriously. Maybe should've tucked this in the middle where I wouldn't have noticed it.

tycoonchip · Jun 27, 2018

Mathloom said: ↑

Let's assume we're not getting Lebron James.

Before recommending an outrageous acquisition, here are my base assumptions:

- We are an OLD TEAM. Very old. In fact, despite what Harden said the other day, we are probably the least likely team in the NBA to improve by standing pat. The Warriors will almost certainly not get worse. It does not make sense to expect us to be as competitive next season as this. The Celtics and Sixers will improve a shocking amount this offseason even if they just retain their current players. The only other threat is wherever Lebron is playing, and whether it's Cleveland (who added the #8 pick and aren't in Luxury Tax territotry) or elsewhere (where he will certainly team up with at least one other star) it's unlikely that his team next season won't be better than last. We are old and, as any well put together contender, don't have lots of flexibility to make big moves.

- Our talent inside was a problem for us against the Warriors. TUCKER AND CAPELA are both extremely hard working, and they both helped us win entire series' along the way. But you need to be able to drop the ball to one of your big men once in a blue moon (or during a historic 3-pt drought) and get a few tough buckets to be forced home. These guys can't do that. They also are not notable passers. Capela has surprised us with his development literally every season he's been here. Would it be irrational for him to have ONE offseason EVER where he doesn't improve? No. It's not irrational at all. If Capela comes back the exact same player, his track record of improvement is still stellar. The league would be in serious trouble if he came to camp able to hit 5 more percent of his free throws and 10 more percent of his hook shots. But that's not set in stone. It's a risk, and right now, it's the easiest risk to take for the Rockets. More on risk in a bit.

- What happens after CHRIS PAUL? Paul at least played Curry to a stalemate, and I know he can do it one more time. Our trainers are excellent, they will have him in better shape than he was before. He has tasted the WCF. The belief that he can still go toe-to-toe with the ex-MVP is going to be powerful. But what about the next 3-5 years while Harden is in his prime? Can we carry this project with Harden/Paul/Capela for 3-5 years with no extra money to improve the team?

- Most FA's are impossible for us to get. What I'm suggesting here is based on REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS about George, Lebron, etc. A healthy elite player is going to be dramatically harder to get, and the rest of the field might be gone by the time we're done pursuing. Do we really need a George? Even when not healthy, we were closer to the Warriors than a Paul George. And Paul George will not be here without losing important pieces.

- This is the best MDA gets. I'm resigned to this fact now.

So here's what I think. I think we should take a big risk. I don't think we should dick around with some minimum signings. I don't think we should keep the oldest team in the league intact just because we were better than the Warriors when healthy - given we will not improve and they will not get worse. What would save us is if they had an injury, but that's putting control in the hands of chance.

The risk I think we should take is to swap Clint Capela for Demarcus Cousins. Throughout the years with so many people notoriously downplaying Capela's growth I have argued fiercely against it. I know Clint Capela is a tremendous talent, and I know teams are now trying to get Capela CLONES on their squads. I know people will throw the max at him. I know he has earned the respect he's getting. I know he's young, and I know he will still improve.

I know.

I know Cousins is coming off the most devastating injury an NBA player can suffer, I know. I know he has attitude issues, I know.

I also know there is a good chance Cousins can destroy the Warriors from the inside, at a time when Paul and now finally Harden can relax about taking a lot of shots. I know that Paul could be a stabilizing force in Cousins' career. I know that Cousins might not get the max, and he almost certainly won't get a 4-5 year deal. That's the only reason we have a chance. I know that we can afford to wait 6 months for him to be in playing shape. This roster can finish 2nd in the regular season with minimal depth at C. With Ryno, Brandan Wright and Nene - this team will hold up while Cousins works his way back in.

What we if we could get him on a 3 year deal at the max? What if he recovers and suddenly you have Draymond gasping for dear life trying to guard his own man, nevermind having the room to disrupt drives from Harden/Paul? What about the passing Cousins can bring to this team, the high post play? 5-out offense? Draymond and Durant are hopeless against a 90% Cousins.

It's a big risk. I would HATE to lose Capela. Cousins can go horribly wrong. But there's a decent chance that the combination of a good team with vets and excellent trainers could make the previously impossible possible. I would do it.

I know it makes you anxious and worry about never getting to the finals again. Who cares? If it doesn't work out, we rebuild in 2 years instead of being locked in for 5.

Would love to hear some thoughts.

Click to expand...

I agree with alot of your points except for the Cousins part. Cousins at a minimum pay check and in a situation where we are not relying on him is ok. If we are messing with letting Capella go that means we are replacing our Core. That means we need a guarantee improvement. Our window to win with CP3 and Harden will not stay open very long. So if we are going to lose Capella then it has to be for someone that can instantly improve our team. Cousins is way too huge of a risk while we are hoping to bubble wrap CP3 and Nene can't be over used. The Rockets are probably at their most important offseason in years and we definitely can't stand still so that does mean shake ups. If we remain stagnant, I do not think we are going to be able to get where we were last season. Especially if we are trying to improve from last season and the conference finals are not just the goal. The Jazz will be improved. San Antonio will most likely have some of their crap and drama figured out. If we don't get Lebron then we definitely need to figure out who we can obtain as that other star. If De Andre wants to come on a Ball boy cheap contract or Capella is really willing to take a paycut in order for us to obtain that last star, then we do it. We are not Boston that has the ability to wait.

baller4life315 · Jun 27, 2018

Millsap is more realistic, IMO.

Denver can’t be thrilled with their bang for their buck after year #1. Convincing them to take Anderson will be costly, though.

YOLO · Jun 27, 2018

ZJP3 said: ↑

Yeah, and he wouldn't be here. I am not saying that I want Boogie over Capela. But I think OP makes good points, and that Cousins is a top 15 player.
Click to expand...

Probably wouldn't put him that high based on what he's shown but that's your list anyway

Mr.Scarface · Jun 27, 2018

No.

jch1911 · Jun 27, 2018

baller4life315 said: ↑

Millsap is more realistic, IMO.

Denver can’t be thrilled with their bang for their buck after year #1. Convincing them to take Anderson will be costly, though.
Click to expand...

Probably could get Faried (expiring) for Anderson almost straight up
I don't think they cut bait on Milsap so quickly.
A thought:
PHO: Anderson (HOU) + 2019 HOU 1st (top 5 protected) + 2020 DEN 2nd Suns pick up a 1st & 2nd to take on Anderson's contract
DEN: Onuaku (HOU) cut prospective tax bill & dump Faried's contract
HOU: Faried (DEN) + Chandler (PHO) Both expiring contracts + rebounding + interior defense (esp. for playoffs) + Faried & Chandler have played for TEAM USA basketball

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The Big Risk We Should Consider (not a short post)

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