The Big Risk We Should Consider (not a short post)

Let's assume we're not getting Lebron James.

Before recommending an outrageous acquisition, here are my base assumptions:

- We are an OLD TEAM. Very old. In fact, despite what Harden said the other day, we are probably the least likely team in the NBA to improve by standing pat. The Warriors will almost certainly not get worse. It does not make sense to expect us to be as competitive next season as this. The Celtics and Sixers will improve a shocking amount this offseason even if they just retain their current players. The only other threat is wherever Lebron is playing, and whether it's Cleveland (who added the #8 pick and aren't in Luxury Tax territotry) or elsewhere (where he will certainly team up with at least one other star) it's unlikely that his team next season won't be better than last. We are old and, as any well put together contender, don't have lots of flexibility to make big moves.

- Our talent inside was a problem for us against the Warriors. TUCKER AND CAPELA are both extremely hard working, and they both helped us win entire series' along the way. But you need to be able to drop the ball to one of your big men once in a blue moon (or during a historic 3-pt drought) and get a few tough buckets to be forced home. These guys can't do that. They also are not notable passers. Capela has surprised us with his development literally every season he's been here. Would it be irrational for him to have ONE offseason EVER where he doesn't improve? No. It's not irrational at all. If Capela comes back the exact same player, his track record of improvement is still stellar. The league would be in serious trouble if he came to camp able to hit 5 more percent of his free throws and 10 more percent of his hook shots. But that's not set in stone. It's a risk, and right now, it's the easiest risk to take for the Rockets. More on risk in a bit.

- What happens after CHRIS PAUL? Paul at least played Curry to a stalemate, and I know he can do it one more time. Our trainers are excellent, they will have him in better shape than he was before. He has tasted the WCF. The belief that he can still go toe-to-toe with the ex-MVP is going to be powerful. But what about the next 3-5 years while Harden is in his prime? Can we carry this project with Harden/Paul/Capela for 3-5 years with no extra money to improve the team?

- Most FA's are impossible for us to get. What I'm suggesting here is based on REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS about George, Lebron, etc. A healthy elite player is going to be dramatically harder to get, and the rest of the field might be gone by the time we're done pursuing. Do we really need a George? Even when not healthy, we were closer to the Warriors than a Paul George. And Paul George will not be here without losing important pieces.

- This is the best MDA gets. I'm resigned to this fact now.

So here's what I think. I think we should take a big risk. I don't think we should dick around with some minimum signings. I don't think we should keep the oldest team in the league intact just because we were better than the Warriors when healthy - given we will not improve and they will not get worse. What would save us is if they had an injury, but that's putting control in the hands of chance.

The risk I think we should take is to swap Clint Capela for Demarcus Cousins. Throughout the years with so many people notoriously downplaying Capela's growth I have argued fiercely against it. I know Clint Capela is a tremendous talent, and I know teams are now trying to get Capela CLONES on their squads. I know people will throw the max at him. I know he has earned the respect he's getting. I know he's young, and I know he will still improve.

I know.

I know Cousins is coming off the most devastating injury an NBA player can suffer, I know. I know he has attitude issues, I know.

I also know there is a good chance Cousins can destroy the Warriors from the inside, at a time when Paul and now finally Harden can relax about taking a lot of shots. I know that Paul could be a stabilizing force in Cousins' career. I know that Cousins might not get the max, and he almost certainly won't get a 4-5 year deal. That's the only reason we have a chance. I know that we can afford to wait 6 months for him to be in playing shape. This roster can finish 2nd in the regular season with minimal depth at C. With Ryno, Brandan Wright and Nene - this team will hold up while Cousins works his way back in.

What we if we could get him on a 3 year deal at the max? What if he recovers and suddenly you have Draymond gasping for dear life trying to guard his own man, nevermind having the room to disrupt drives from Harden/Paul? What about the passing Cousins can bring to this team, the high post play? 5-out offense? Draymond and Durant are hopeless against a 90% Cousins.

It's a big risk. I would HATE to lose Capela. Cousins can go horribly wrong. But there's a decent chance that the combination of a good team with vets and excellent trainers could make the previously impossible possible. I would do it.

I know it makes you anxious and worry about never getting to the finals again. Who cares? If it doesn't work out, we rebuild in 2 years instead of being locked in for 5.

Would love to hear some thoughts.

 

If Cousins wasn't injured, we have no shot. The whole point is he is available because of the associated risk. We would be betting on a recovery.

 

I would prefer that too, but it is a fantasy. Charlotte will not swap Batum for Anderson, it's not even debatable. We have to be realistic about what we can do.