[The Athletic] The Rockets, for better or worse, have embraced their post-Harden reality: rebuilding

Absolutely, the problem is that the Thunder have a 25% chance of getting a top 4 pick right now. The Rockets have a 52% chance of getting a top 4 pick and a 25% chance of getting a top 2 pick.

So while the Thunder possibly have two top 8 picks, their "lottery" value is actually less than the Rockets for 2021 simply because the top of this draft is perceived as a lot better than the middle of the lottery.

Also for the Thunder to trade into the top 4 would be very costly because of the drop off after #5.

When you start really looking at the numbers it becomes clear just how valuable it is to be REALLY bad (worst 2-3) compared to being just BAD.

The league has tried to get rid of the benefit, but it is still largely there, it just harder to tank for one cannot miss player.

The example I always think of is the Dallas Mavericks..... they decided to try to win games late in the season many years ago.... with 1-2 games left in the season they decided to play their starters heavy minutes and upset the Rockets... their coach bragged about it etc.... when they won that game Orlando passed them in the loss column..... Orlando ended drafting Shaq O'Neal and the Mavericks settled for Jim Jackson.

 

The Rockets GM has and will operate under the mandate of staying within the cap which means a lot of shuffling.

I don't really see the difference in identifying draft talent vs identifying financially undervalued NBA talent..... PJ... Luc... Ariza... House... Bev. The Rockets have been elite, in my mind, identifying talent. Keeping the talent is another matter when you have two large max contracts or you have to trade for a max player.

Stone isn't setting the agenda. It just happens that our owner doesn't want to compete right after trading our franchise player.

 

It's sad that they waited till the deadline to accept their fate though. Imagine if right at the Harden trade they decided to immediately rerout Levert for picks to Miami or Denver instead of Oladipo. Or maybe still send him to Indiana but for filler and picks instead. We'd have a clear direction and avoided a depressing deadline letdown.

 

If there was a failure in their approach to this rebuild, that was it. It took them too long to make a decision on the direction of the franchise and they were too focused on staying flexible while trying to stay competitive in the short-term. And to their credit, I don't completely fault them for it. Those first few games, it really looked like they had something with Wall, Oladipo and Wood plus the defensive role players around them. That was an exciting week or two where it felt like that core might have a chance to be something. Alas, that six-game stretch was an anomaly, and Wood's ankle injury was probably a blessing in disguise, as it revealed who they truly were and allowed them to go full tank mode sooner.

In hindsight, though, flipping LeVert for picks and younger prospects would have been the better move. I still contend that LeVert probably isn't worth that much in the way of assets, but he would have at least netted them another first rounder and 1-2 other competent assets.

 

There are hundreds of undervalued NBA talent and its not that hard to pick out. Most of these guys are going to have a high energy motor, shoot threes decently and play good defense. Even now we have guys in the current roster who would have shined alongside Paul, Harden and Capela... Tate and Nwaba... Morey was good at this, Morey is also the type of GM that will overpay for Brown, House if they mature and develop into exactly that of what we mentioned.

I don't think Stone is under a mandate, I think Tilman put the team in Stone's hands and asked he does what's best for The Rockets period. I think Stone is waiting for the right moment to make a significant move. Piling up draft picks, saving money and developing players. Once Tilman screws us by refusing to sign a big free agent over saving money I'll be pissed. But it has to be the right guy, it cant be an Aaron Gordon or Tobias Harris type of guy.

 

It's still identifying talent and projecting it, not all that dissimilar from drafting.

To the bolded, if the owner tells him to. Morey's mantra was you want to be the guy who finds Parsons, not pay him.

Of course he is.... that's how the structure of our franchise has worked. Morey never operated independently and Stone won't either. Morey has spoken about how he operated in podcast and it was pretty much " our staff does the legwork and presents the options to the owner".

 

Neither Stone or Silas wanted to Tank, that much was obvious.

But they have had to pivot to make lemonade out of the lemons they were at least partly responsible for.

There still should be some accountability for the 20 consecutive blowouts and poor Harden, and by extension Oladipo, trade.

What that accountability should look like is up to Patrick and Tilly.

I want a reckoning of some kind, even if just symbolic like forcing a staffing change on Silas.

And Stone was so focused on Riley's smoke and mirrors he was almost negligent in not moving either BMac or House. At least 1 is a candidate to be released. And Avery Bradley is already campaigning to be waived.

 

Or, and this would have taken a lot of balls, what if they traded Oladipo right after the 6 game win streak when Wood went down. He was looking great then and we might have actually had a chance at Herro or something. It's just kind of annoying that they tried to play both sides when losing Harden should have 100% triggered a rebuild. If you're trying to rebuild and compete at the same time, you're just gonna end up passing up opportunities for either. It's good that at least for now they're committed to rebuilding but if they start signing vets this off season Imma be pissed.

 

I remember that "be the guy who finds Parsons, not pay him" quote. It was prime Morey time. He never really did it again, he found Tucker but paid him.... Beverley? and I think that's it..... There were some good additions but they were mostly veteran role players to put around Harden who was so damn good all you really need is for them to shoot threes. Like Delfino, hate he got injured and never came back.

Well, lets see what Tilman does. He has a small window, most of what's happening now is on Morey, MDA and Harden... But this year, this is year 1 of his coach, his GM his vision and his era. I do hope his intentions are in the right place.

 

then they tanked , got #5 and got lucky and traded for luka . (Tho hawks might be better than mavs this year )

 

losing Mclemore at this point would be a TERRIBLE blow to the tank. please Raffy, please . . . don't do it

 

Tucker was a shrewd signing who out played his contract. Bev was a pretty inexpensive contact even with all the injuries. I think even Capela was a good signing, but the team changed and he had a soft tissue injury in his heel.

Going to have to agree to disagree. Morey, MDA, and Harden certainly have their blame, but the owner is always calling the shots at the head of the table.

 

Capela?
House?

 

Capela was drafted, I was thinking more alongside trading for but Parsons was drafted as well so it counts. Capela was the only player I can think of under Morey that was given time to develop and actually did it! Capela turned out to be good, not great but pretty good. In fact, when we traded Capela I think its when everything started to go down hill.

House, House has been disappointing. And Morey released him once? or twice maybe? Even now I think House might mature but I don't feel we can expect much more. I do think he gains consistency and someone contending overpays for him in the future.

Morey chess truly is a myth...

 

Would you be willing to cope with the idea that Tilman had a tough situation with Morey, MDA and Harden. All of them asking for different things, Morey full control and more small ball. MDA asking for an extension and freedom to continue playing a way that was just not working? Harden getting desperate to win a championship but no super stars to help him do it here? Pressure from your main three building blocks could pressure you into bad decisions.

Lets not defend Tilman then, flat out lets put it on him. He screwed us. Plain and simple, but if he would have given everyone what they wanted do you think we would be trending upwards or possibly still look at a chip from the outside while moving pieces in and out just to try and stay on par with a pretty stacked west? With all three here, are we really still competing for it all or just delaying a fracture that was just going to keep growing until everything breaks apart.

 

House is a rotational player who is leauge average and is paid accordingly, he found him and signed him it does not matter if he released him twice.

He found Lowry and Pat Beve, also Goron. it's not a myth, you just want to say it is.

 

The general manager and coach certainly should be held accountable for all the good and bad things they have done. I don't think Stone is some magician and I don't have a lot of confidence in him, it is wait and see with him.

I would just add that we do not know for sure how involved Tilman and Patrick have been involved in the moves made. A former employee that moved to another team told me that Tilman and Patrick were both very involved in the past and that only complicates everything.

Amazingly, even after the Oladipo fiasco the Rockets are in a solid position to rebuild..... now with Stone and Silas and the Fertittas' screw it up? Maybe

 

Or drafting Chandler Parsons. Or picking up Luis Scola for nothing. Trading for Lowry when he was buried on Memphis's bench behind Mike Conley. Grabbing undrafted guys like Covington, Chuck Hayes, etc. And, of course, the Harden trade. His resume is super impressive but these folks love to look at what he didn't get right rather than how much more he got right than most General Managers.

 

Sorry...... but Daryl Morey wasn't the problem, the problem was and has been Tilman Fertitta. He was a new owner, so perhaps he will learn or maybe Patrick Fertitta will prove to be adept at it....... but the only people around the league that think Morey was the problem are the people that want to keep their employment with the Rockets.

There is a reason Morey had a job in no time at all.

 

Embrace the tank !!!!!!