Astros will win it all due to all that contact they make Teams that make contact do better against high velocity, Ben Lindbergh found. Teams that strike out less do better in the postseason. These things are connected by the fact that pitchers throw harder in the postseason, thanks to adrenaline and perhaps shorter stints and more rest days in the bullpen. Yes, there are more strikeouts in the game today, but the better teams strike out less and know it’s a huge component of their success. Team strikeout rate predicted every series last year, except those won by the Rays, but they’re built differently. The Astros have made contact a priority in free agency, with signings such as Michael Brantley (10.4 percent strikeout rate this year) and Yuli Gurriel (11.2); their home-grown stars are also good at bat-to-ball, with Jose Altuve (13.4), Carlos Correa (18.1), Kyle Tucker (15.9) and Alex Bregman (13.3) all much better than the league-wide average of 23.2 percent strikeout rate this season. In a related matter, Houston scored more runs this season than any other team in baseball. Oh, wait, except the Rays of course. Team Strikeout Rate Leaders TEAM K% Astros 19.4% Blue Jays 20.1% Royals 21.0% Nationals 21.3% Padres 21.6% The particular way they scored those runs in Houston, however, will benefit them in the postseason. (And it doesn’t hurt that they’ve got the third-best defense and best overall position player group as judged by WAR, of course.) https://theathletic.com/2859473/202...tat-based-predictions-for-the-mlb-postseason/
My man's got good points, but messed up in a few places. The Astros DID score more runs than the Rays, we overtook them at game 162 and beat them 863-857. https://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-playoffs-kansas-city-royals-fastball-velocity-contact/ Other than that, I read the Grantland article it sites, and found lots of interesting stuff. The main problem teams run into in the playoffs is elite pitching. Back in 2015, the percentage of fastballs thrown at 95+ went from 7-8% in the regular season to 20% in the postseason. A statistic that's only gone up since. This brings a few questions. #1. Do the Astros throw enough heat to not get pounded? I trust Lance to have an extra gear in the postseason, we saw his best on the road, hostile environments, against great teams. He was fanning dudes with 96-97 in LA and Chicago. Framber can touch 95-96 when he wants do, and demonstrated that in 2020. Even Urquidy can reach back for 95, as seen in 2019 and 2020. Is Luis Garcia ready? Does he have an extra gear? I'll trust him to pull through. The problem is that everyone has to hit their extra gear to pitch like a stud, no real ace that does it naturally. The Real problem is the bullpen. Aside from Stanek, Graveman, and Pressley, nobody throws that much gas. #2. How banged up is the White Sox pitching? We should be entering this series at a massive disadvantage in pitching. Rodon and Lynn are Cy Young contenders, but we've destroyed Lynn before. along with Cease and Keuchel. Rodon and Giolito are CG threats normally, but Rodon's lost nearly 4-5 MPH on his fastball in the last few weeks coming off the IL. If he recovers, we'll have to bet on at least one of Framber or Lance outpitching Gio or Rodon to avoid a game 5 with an ace on the mound. #3 Are the Rays frauds? When I saw them take us to the brink in 2019, I felt like I'd seen the reverse of our series against the Royals in 2015, except we were never 6 outs away from elimination. Then they go to the WS, beating us on the way in 2020. But how much does that season apply today? No crowds, no energy, no Yordan. They're a clear aberration in a team being successful in the postseason with their K rate, but they're the first team to lean on HRs so much that the fact that they strike out nearly 30% of the time doesn't matter. Even when the Astros lost in 2018 and 2019, they lost to teams that ranked 2nd in their leagues in K%.
I don’t know if it’s a coincidence, but the Astros shift from homer / strikeout to focus on contact came after they lost to those 2015 Royals who beat the Astros because they put balls in play. That change is what moved the Astros from a good offense to a historically good offense. They haven’t really sacrificed power either. No one is hitting 50 hrs, but basically the entire lineup (minus Maldonado) can hit 20+. They all (except Alvarez and Maldonado) strike out significantly less than league average. Luck matters in the post season and putting the ball in play gives you more opportunities to benefit from it.
unless you're playing the rays who apparently catch almost everything, no matter the level of difficulty haha
The high contact offense was completely useless at home against the Nats and we lost the WS. One of the most brutal things Ive seen. Terrible against Tampa last year too. yes great pitching can do that to any lineup.
If we win it all I doubt Correa leaves. That’s a huge amount of playoff revenue and desire to run it back on top of all the factors already in place
Im legit worried about you, and I really mean that in a nice way. You care deeply about the Astros and it’s gonna be a wild ride. I’m worried for my mental health and swing from relishing the postseason to dreading it. The only thing that has ever compared to these Astros postseason runs were the 86 rockets, the loss to the Sonics, and the two championship runs. I don’t know about other folks, but in my younger days, the prospect of victory outshined the thought of defeat. Nowadays, the worry about losing is soo damn strong, perhaps because I think I want this title more than any title before save the first rockets championship. And yes, I think I want this more than the first Astros title.
Wasn’t useless enough to have a comfortable lead in game 7 of that WS. Hinch’s management of the pitching was what cost us another title. Should have kept Grienke in I believe but if he was dead set on pulling him..shouldnt have been in favor of Harris (who the Nats had seen 3 times already over that week and a half..ride the Cole train instead.
yeah i agree with that. I just also remember the constant issues with scoring after the 1st inning. It was horrible.
Useless is an over-exaggeration and I guess you forgot what the 2015 team did against the Royals. The 2015 Astros averaged 7.6 hits and 4.2 runs against a KC team whose game 1 starter was Yordano Ventura (ERA+ 103) followed by a bad Johnny Cueto (ERA+ 88), and Edinson Volquez (ERA+ 118). That wasn't a garbage rotation, but it wasn't the 2019 Nationals. The 2019 Astros got to game 7 of the world series. They averaged almost 10 hits and 4.25 runs a game against the Nationals pitching including Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, and Sanchez who had an average ERA+ of 136 (lowest was Sanchez with 117). Do you think the 2019 Astros would have scored more or been as likely to go as far if they struck out more? Luck still matters, but as the Athletic article mentions, teams that put the ball in play more do better in the postseason. There's no doubt the Astros offense changed approach and got significantly better after 2015.
