(The Athletic) Rafael Stone: 'this is not a job anyone can do perfectly'

it makes it a no brainer for the rockets scenario as is. obviously that can change a bit if lets say the rockets draft scoot. but as far as the big picture harden is best case along with drafting wemby. that would make one hell of a summer on those two alone to move forward

No thanks to Lamelo. and no thanks to lonzo or rubio either. I could entertain Conley as a placeholder scenario on a nice deal.

 

Why would you count Jabari as the #1 pick when it was pretty obvious Paolo was #1 on our draft board and we didn't get the option to draft him?

 

not the exact scenario you're asking but Orlando comes to mind when they took dipo at 2 in 2013 and Aaron Gordon at 4 in 2014. I'll just add they took hezonja at 5 in 2015 just for giggles

Sacramento has been picking inside top 10/top 5 for years dating back to 2009 with tyreke at #4. And their only foundational star who just recently is playing his best basketball is fox. Obviously they had Haliburton but we know the rest. Thinking of how many drafts that haven't panned out in a span of nearly 15 years for them is crazy

 

Jabari was the #1 pick by nearly every mock draft leading up the 24 hours before when Orlando randomly decided to take a more NBA rookie of the year ready player.

To quote Jay Bilas:

“you got the #1 pick in the draft”

 

Oh yeah there’s plenty of examples of top 10 for years and years but specifically 1 and 2 in subsequent years.

If it’s not obvious im trying to make a point at the extreme fortune that Stone was given that’s virtually unheard of.

Closest example I can think of is Hinkie with the Sixers. He did land Embiid but still lost his job because of misses with Okafor, Noel, Stauskas, and mostly because he didn’t put the infrastructure around Okafor more than anyone to make him a better player.

Had Hinkie not doubled down and turned Okafor into a solid NBA player before Embiid got healthy there’s a world where he’s still the GM.

 

Okafor came into the league at the wrong time for him. his skill set was like the opposite of what the league has turned into. That's why bigs like him no longer last in the nba and aren't sough after. Certainly not at lottery pick levels and high profile players.They have now pretty much been weeded out of the league.

 

Uhhhh okay. I don't think it's fair to judge Stone as if he chose Jabari over Paolo/Chet when he literally didn't have a choice. Like he had top choice one year and second choice the other and this is what we ended up with. He had second choice and chose Jalen, yes, but he did not choose Jabari over everyone. It seemed obvious he liked Paolo the best.

 

Jabari over Murray was a mistake.

DD

 

Jabari is 19 whereas Keegan is 22. Give Bari some time.

 

SUNK COST is the key word everyone should be talking about. The same exact reason that I’m against blind upgrade of the team for short term competitiveness next season. The pick is gone. Build a future patiently.





Too bad the Fertittas will likely disagree.

Too bad our GM is insecure.

 

Jabari Smith was the Youngest Player in the Draft.

His Dribbling, Crossover and Shooting is Improving. He is in a Development Stage, Still a Raw Prospect.

Jabari Smith can be a Unicorn if he continues to work hard, uses this off season with a shooting and dribbling coach to improve himself.

 

Over the course of six years, the Lakers got #7, #2, #2, #2, signed LeBron/gave up #10, and got #4. Didn't get a single foundational player from the picks themselves, but packaged three of them together to get AD.

Cleveland had #1/#4, #1, #4, and #1 over the course of four years. If you discount Kyrie in 2011 since they only acquired that pick in a salary dump, I'd argue they didn't get a single foundational player from being bad over the course of four years.

As for Hinkie, the thing that got him fired is likely going to be the same thing that gets Stone fired eventually; drafting the "presumptive #1" who falls, but ends up being a bust (Nerlens Noel/Jabari Smith), and not being willing to draft a player who didn't want to be drafted by the team (Porzingis/Mobley).

Hard to read the below quotes and not think about how Orlando stuck to their guns on Banchero despite him refusing to work out for them, how the Rockets passed on Mobley, and how they might have passed on Chet if he fell due to not having his medicals.

For what it's worth, I agreed with the decision to go with Green and Smith in the moment, but I'm not being paid to make those decisions. At the end of the day, no matter how sound your decision-making process is, at some point you do need to have luck fall your way and be correct on your projections.

 

My plumber analogy was meant to show that sometimes a bad job/decision made by a professional is quite easy to see even though we do not have the professional competency to do a better job ourselves. There are plenty of real life examples. I don't know how to make a movie. But I know a movie is bad when I see it. I would not be able to make a college basketball team, let alone an NBA team. But I know which is a good pro player and which is a bad pro player. In fact, it is exactly why we pay the professionals to do what we can't do ourselves. So we evaluate their performance by professional standards, not by our own ability.

Not being able to provide an alternative does not mean the proposed action is not bad and we cannot criticize it.

1. Sometimes we don't have enough information to know what alternatives we have.
2. Sometimes we as fans just don't have the time to do in-depth research to offer something good.
3. This is probably the most important point: Sometimes better alternatives do not exist yet but may come up later. Making a bad decision just because there appear to have no better choices often rob the opportunities for good choices later.

 

I agree with this. He's far from being a finished project.

 

I understand the lesser of two evils. But other alternatives may not be worse. Just because you sign a lesser player does not necessary mean it is a worse choice. It all depends on the cost. Buying a Toyota can be a better choice than buying a Lexus if the Toyota is a good deal and the Lexus is overpriced.

Anyway, I don't want to argue about the Harden case in this thread. I've presented my reasoning in that thread.

 

In this case it does and the realistic next steps these kids need to take in order to move Forward. It doesn’t really depend on cost when money needs to be spent. You definitely want to spend Tillman’s limited money in ways that actually produce. Or would you like another worthless theiss type deal where the rockets are desperate and have money to give out for free to scrubs alike. That lesser choice definitely means worse choice

These analogies you’re trying to use to the game of basketball are pretty puzzling. Buying a Toyota compared to a Lexus saves your dollars as it’s the lesser version. Oh I get it the Tillman’s LTS mindset. Instead of signing a real backup pg he goes out and gets Carter Williams. Another worse choice. Instead of getting a real rotational wing, you go out and scrape the bottom of the barrel again for ennis. Yet again the worse choice

 

Preach patience to others but has shown lacking of it in so many instances. Example ^

 

The Rockets are terrible. Silas should just step down.

 

Jabari 1-9 lol

 

Good examples. I think about infrastructure, support, and development a lot now when I think about what a GM does when they are fortunate enough to get a consensus #1 or #2 talent. It’s fair to also say that Stone and Hinkie with their respective top picks could have done more when they got that talent to give them a different start to their career which possibly leads to a different career of not at least better asset management.

It’s not all up to the GM of course and the player himself has to show up, but there’s something to be said about the investment a team makes when they get that talent. A #1 pick imo is so valuable I think it should even determine making coaching changes even as a rookie.

Even in hindsight I also agree still taking Green and Jabari. However I do think that it’s worth considering whether or not Stone should have pivoted last Summer to put the best possible situation around both players now instead of tanking another year which is likely leading to their detriment hurting their development and their asset value.