With Dallas Keuchel seemingly broken (hopefully for this year only, but quite possibly permanent), and Carlos Gomez forgetting how to play baseball this isn't a good team. That will lead a lot of people to say that last year was a fluke, the franchise is still terrible, and a house cleaning is necessary. In baseball bad seasons happen to teams expected to be good, sometimes out of nowhere. It happened to the Astros in 2000, it happened to the Nationals last year. It doesn't always mean that wholesale changes need to happen. I imagine there's a good chance that Musgrove and Reed will come up at the super 2 deadline. Until then I don't think I would change much aside from considering shutting Keuchel down. Without him this is a decent rotation at best, and the lineup has a ton of holes beyond the big 3. If this team can put something to together over the next month or so, great play for this year, but for now I don't think I would waste many long term resources on what seems like a lost cause. Basically everything that could have possibly gone wrong has.
Things they need to use the rest of this season to figure out: Can Gattis be the everyday catcher when Castro is traded or leaves in free agency this offseason? Can Moran or Bregman be the everyday 3B next season? Can White or Reed be the everyday 1B next season? Can Marisnick or Kemp be the everyday CF next season? Can Musgrove, Paulino, or Feliz be counted on in next year's rotation? There is a good crop of OF available in free agency this offseason and Houston should have the payroll flexibility to add any one they want to man LF, which is the only spot they are unlikely to be able to fill internally. They will need to replace Fister in the rotation, and if the young guys aren't ready they need to explore a blockbuster trade for an ace. They've got the prospects and money to make it happen.
I think the money aspect of this is dubious at this point. We really don't know if Crane is the cheapskate owner that it's starting to look like or if he's just waiting for the right time to put money into the team. We should know in a year or two for sure.
Yea, basically everything that could go wrong has. Last year, it maybe said everything that could go right , basically did. Taking the difference (86 + 62* / 2) is 74 wins. (* = projected 2016 wins). I dont think we are as good as last year or as bad as this year. So a 74 win club looks about right to me.
I'm ok with how the season is going to play out, losing and all, because the guys need to learn the importance of their approach to hitting from their current and projected spots in the lineup. And when you keep losing. That does it. Because if you don't focus on your craft u will keep on losing. I'm a little disappointed they aren't learning faster, but that was probably because they ha too much success. Altuve is a great example. He's understanding how important it is for him to have discipline. The results outstanding. Springer has yet to learn about allowing Altuve to run, moving runners, base stealing, and who's hitting behind him. Correa is just flat out learning. But I think losing also reminds us that we really only have half a team right now, and that upgrades are necessary to go to the next level.
That's pretty pessimistic to me. This team has star players at 2B, SS, and RF. They have the reigning AL CY winner. Their 40 man roster and upper farm system is as deep as any team in baseball. No reason whatsoever this team should be under .500. They had a 4th star player they traded for (Gomez) totally melt down. Their star pitchers started off in a funk. But most of all they have been pretty unlucky and faced a tough schedule. I think the season is near over and at this point they are another bad/mediocre week away from needing to shif the focus entirely to next season. But I wouldn't be surprised at all if they had a good 2nd half and finished with 80+ wins.
What about last season went so right? Asided from Keuchel who was better than expected, everybody else basically performed at an expected level or worse. It wasn't as if last season was littered with guys playing over their heads.
McHugh with 19 wins Sipp 1.99 ERA Harris 1.90 era (he continues to play over his head IMO) McCullers 3.22 era (Not as good as we thought?) Valbuena 25 homers Marwin .279 Add to this that everyone not named Altuve has regressed.
Keuchel and McHugh had 39 wins last year. Does anyone think they will surpass 25 this year? Here is a 14 game swing based on two guys alone.
Springer missed a sizable chunk of last season... prior to this last series, he was on track to better his numbers from last year. McCullers has had all of 2 mini starts since he came back... and you think that determines that he's not as good? The bullpen overall is performing as expected... and at what point will you be convinced that a player is simply reaching a new level, vs. pitching over his head (in regards to Harris)? Fister providing more as a #5 than any #5 from last season (which included the likes of Fausto, Wojo, Oberholtzer, Deduno, and VV). Agree that Valbuena/Marwin is not a tenable option at 3B.... I doubt Moran is either, but they'll give him a shot. Then it will likely be time for Bregman. White/Gattis/Tucker has also yet to solve the DH/1B riddle... Gattis catching some helps salvage some of his value.
Valbuena posted a better OPS in 2014 than he did in 2015, and McHugh also pitched better in 2014 than 2015. Likewise Marwin posted a .727 OPS in 2014 (or hit .277 since that's the stat you chose for some reason). It isn't if these guys just blew up out of nowhere. McCullers looks fine to me, he got knocked around little in Boston. We'll see if last season was him performing over his head, but after his last start he looks primed to do much of the same.
Springer, Gattis, and Rasmus are basically identical to last year. Correa, as of a week ago, was identical to last year. White has been slightly better than Carter was. Castro has been better. Adding Altuve in, that's 7 of the 9 positions that are at about the same level or better than last year.
We need to trade for some good OBP guys. Y'all might think I'm crazy, but we should trade for Ichiro. #Marlins Ichiro this May... 15-for-30 (.500) 2 four-hit games 1 strikeout
Clubs usually trade MLB players for prospects, when they lost hope on their playoff drive. In particular clubs trade MLB players who are not part of the club's future: Valbuena, Feldman, Fister, etc. Or clubs trade prospects for MLB players, in order to strengthen their playoff drive, like last year's Gomez/Fiers trade. I don't see the Astros trading prospects since the playoffs are becoming a long shot. If at the trade deadline the Astros are not in playoff contention, I can see them unloading some players for prospects. But other teams will only be interested in players who are having a good year, which might limit the number of trades.
Trade value estimate of Astros' pending free agents: Castro: 1 Top 100 prospect plus another prospect from the back half of a team's top 10 Rasmus: 1 Top 100 prospect plus another prospect from the back half of a team's top 10 Fister: 1 prospect from the back half of a team's top 10 Feldman: lower level lottery ticket Valbuena: lower level lottery ticket Gomez: PTBNL or cash Neshek: PTBNL or cash
I'll give you Castro, even though its only been for a month and he is due to gravitate towards his mean. The other guys (besides Altuve), can be viewed as about the same or worse depending on which stats your giving the most weight to. But considering many of these guys were expected to be BETTER this year, and as a whole they are not, that is its own form of regression. Look we can slice and dice all day long. Or take one sentence out of an overall idea and find some flaw in it. I do this myself at times. But overall, the offense is worse than last year when comparing it to this time last year. That is my statement and I stand by it. The pitching isn't even an argument to be had.
Offensively the biggest difference if you were looking at this year and last years first two months, I would guess is the hot start Jake had last year and the HRs Valbuena hit. Haven't looked but seems like those two provided a lot early last year which boosted the numbers a lot
