If you want to believe this team will contend in the next couple of yrs, or win the WS in '17 as Sports Illustrated has predicted have at it. Obviously as I've stated a few times already this isn't taking into account spending major $ on FA in the coming yrs, and until Crane proves that he's willing to do so I'll take a wait and see approach. There's still a ton of "ifs". I've seen too many so called big prospects come up through the system that did JACK ****!!!! Off the top of my head do any of these guys ring a bell: J.Mouton B.Hunter J. Hirsh C. Burke S. Elarton T.Patton B.Bogusevic J.Lyles J.Mier R.Johnson T.Redding K.Ginter M.Ensberg (had one good season) R.Hidalgo (one big season) B.Williams C.Holt P.Nevin Guys that produced: Wagner Oswalt Berkman Lidge Pence That's 5 players in the past 25 yrs, and only time will tell how Appel, Correa, McCullers pan out as well as Springer, and Singleton.
Anyone that tells you they know who is going to win the World Series in 2017, has just as good a shot at being accurate as throwing a dart at a list of all the teams and seeing whom they hit. A majority of prospects do not pan out. I would say though, that the Astros had more than just 5 guys produce.... Wade Miller, Jeff Bagwell, Mike Hampton, Darryl Kile, Shane Reynolds, Luis Gonzalez, Chad Qualls, Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris and others all have been products of the system and played major parts to the teams success at some point in time. Baseball has changed a lot in just the last 5 years. There are twice as many wildcards and the difference between the "good teams" and the "average team" is smaller than ever.
I agree that if we assume zero big FAs will be signed and only guys in the top ~25 MLB prospects will actually pan out, then any predictions will look pessimsitic for the Astros. Seems like a pretty unrealistic and unnecessary scenario to explore, though. I believe if Dwight Howard only plays 30 games next year and the Rockets aren't able to replace him with anyone and don't spend on anyone else, the team will go downhill. Also, I assume that the #18 and #32 picks go nowhere, because most NBA draft picks in those slots don't do much.
In addition, if he's going back 25 years, Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen were pretty good MLB players and the Astros used them to acquire Johnson. Other good prospects came through their system that were traded (perhaps mistakenly) for MLB quality players.
