This makes no sense whatsoever. If you think that Sengun would not get a max offer in RFA, you really don't understand his value.
I thought Carl was saying the MAX Sengawd could get from another team was 4 years / $167M (~$42M per). So if the Rockets offered 5 years, $215M (~43M per), it would be better for Sengawd to take that offer - EVEN tho the Rox could offer 5 years, $225M (~45M per). Personally, I would not nickel and dime the man (not my $10M), but that $$$ could make a difference when headed toward the Aprons,
I could be wrong (like I have been many... Many,,, MANY times before), but that's how I understood it
Correct, the max Sengun or Jalen can get in RFA is 167/4. RFA offer sheets can’t give a 5th year and are capped at 5% raises. Folks need to realize that above ~180/5, any additional money we give to our extension candidates is not about market competition for their services… it’s just giving them money to make them happy. In certain team-building situations or with established young all-stars, that’s what you do. I think we all know that our organization and our guys are not yet in the “give them money to make them happy” stage.
Yeah I don't see it that way. Someone could take a 4 year deal and bank on getting a bigger max deal after that. Where do you get the 180/5 number from?
Part of the reasons we still aren't sure if we have a superstar to build around is the two chaotic seasons they used for tanking. I still don't know if the chaos was intentional or just incompetence. (I'm leaning on intentional because they can't be so blind.) Either way, it slowed down the developmental trajectory of the players. Green is still a mystery. Sengun has shown a lot of promise this season but the FO still doesn't seem to be sure if he is THE ONE. Jabari's rookie season was by and large wasted. He was left to fend for himself when he was struggling. We lost a lot of important time to assess what kind of things they could do in a more normal environment when they are fully developed. Now we are about to make decisions on whether to give Green and/or Sengun the max extension or let them go to RFA or trade them for a 2nd or 3rd tier star. All these decisions will have great impact on future development and we are still don't have a solid grasp.
I mean if he managed to do that, then he deserves a supermax and you pay him...but it would require him to do something very very improbable to make an all NBA team out of nowhere when the voting block has historically lagged behind with keeping HOF players on the ballots for too long.. The forwards ahead of him who got votes this year currently are Tatum, Giannis, Durant, Kawhi, Lebron, Sabonis, Banchero, Williamson, Jaylen Brown, and Paul George. Frankly Sengun doesn't have the name cache when the average beat writer on an NBA team outside of Texas who would need to vote for Sengun likely isn't super familiar with his game...and it's not like Houston has had a ton of marquee games the last several years that made us "must watch" tv.
There is a huge difference between the rookie max and the super max. Sengun is already worth the rookie max and every team in the league would jump at a chance to sign him at that price. I predict the Rockets go ahead and extend Sengun before the season starts unless the improbable trade for a star happens this season.
I re-read the original post. This part is truly unconvincing. What you look at is the individual market value of the player. Sengun's market value is the max. There is nothing "disastrous" that could happen by signing him to a contract that represents his market value. Worst case - the team wrongly arriving at the conclusion that he will not be a core piece to a championship run - many other teams will want to trade for him at that value. The Lakers, for sure. The "disastrous" contracts are the late-career super max contracts of the likes of John Wall and Bradley Beal. Not rookie max contracts of an up-and-coming 21-year old phenom. The whole paragraph just sounds like an attempted rationalization of a personal preference.
I agree with this, but I think they value the flexibility more and they probably want to avoid the headache of offering it to Sengun and not Green...so both get to hit RFA ..... DD
Yeah, but what message would he take from that? You have to realize we're talking about a player with a SUPER low BBIQ and very likely a low actual IQ, he might just think the message is that he needs to be even more selfish, chuck more, pad his stats more at the expense of the team leading to another disastrous season and absolutely no trade value. Would it make him a locker room problem? That's why IMO it's best to extend neither of them for now. Sengun will be restricted so it's not like the team can lose him and you avoid the potential problems if you extend one and not the other. When you match Sengun next year and not Jalen, he won't be a problem anymore, he'll be gone. Next year I'd do the same thing with Jabari and Tari. Neither of them (as of now) deserve anything close to a max extension. Let them hit RFA if they won't agree to a lower number.
Yeah, that's what I referenced in my post on Page 1, and there are other Sports Biz articles predicting same thing. Apron 2 will be $277m when Reed's extension hits, and $305m in it's 2nd year. This is why I don't think the 2nd Apron is a significant worry for a young core, where none of them will get a Supermax. And by my calculation, we really only have a single year as threat to 2nd Apron (2028-29 -- Reed's first extension year). The cap increase brings us well below the following year. Again, I feel like I'm being very generous with bench player salaries. The bigger concerns are 1) will one of the Core bolt vs coming off the bench, despite generous starter pay, 2) will Tilman tolerate paying the repeater tax -- starting 2030. (We'd most definitely have to have a title or recent Finals appearance by 2030, imo.)
The only player that has proven to earn a rookie max is Sengun. We should not dole out max contracts based on expectations or where someone was drafted.
I assume he meant a max non-Larry Bird Exception contract is $60m less. Granted, the shorter contract does get him to free agency quicker for the 30% max. And it also allows him to bet on himself and sign a 2+1yr to get to UFA for 30% max the quickest. However, we wouldn't want to match either, anyhow, because the extra 5th yr helps us avoid the 2nd Apron for one season longer. If his play this year absolutely makes him worth the max, we will have him bagged before free-agency even opens.
