1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

The 2024 Baseball Season - Things to Come

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by jim1961, Oct 24, 2023.

  1. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2010
    Messages:
    16,871
    Likes Received:
    12,638
    2023 record: 90-72 (1st in AL West)
    Projected 40-man payroll: $217M
    Key departures: Michael Brantley, Martin Maldonado, Phil Maton, Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek
    Needs: Reliever, catcher, outfielder, starting pitcher

    The Astros are well-equipped in the starting rotation. The biggest unknowns heading into 2024 involve right-handers Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia. McCullers didn't pitch in 2023, while Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery in May. If there is any uncertainty about how much they can contribute next season, general manager Dana Brown will likely look to add another option to provide depth to the rotation. He will also need to add to a bullpen, with Neris, Stanek, and Maton all likely heading elsewhere.

    https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2767705
     
    raining threes likes this.
  2. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Messages:
    10,844
    Likes Received:
    14,483
    Sonny Gray got $75M/3yrs plus a $30M 4th yr club option. Would be a good deal except for the QO means it also costs St Louis a 2nd rd pick and $500k in intl slot money. To me that tips it a bit into a slight overpay. But considering the guy was a CY finalist this year, getting him for a $75M commitment is not a terrible deal.
     
    raining threes likes this.
  3. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 1999
    Messages:
    47,856
    Likes Received:
    14,076
    I feel like it’s an overpay… something STL would not have done had they not had such a horrible season and a fan base that demands action.

    Sonny Gray does not have another “gear”. He is who he is. The smartest teams get a guy who they can unlock or elevate to become something beyond what they were… and if they’re really smart, they get them at a decent price.
     
    MadMax, everyday eddie and jim1961 like this.
  4. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 1999
    Messages:
    47,856
    Likes Received:
    14,076
    Garcia will be a cy young candidate once fully healthy again. He’s got the stuff, the build, and the mental coolness to do very well for a very long time.
     
    Amadeus Rooster and MadMax like this.
  5. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2010
    Messages:
    16,871
    Likes Received:
    12,638
    Sure hope your right.
     
    BlindHog likes this.
  6. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2021
    Messages:
    5,122
    Likes Received:
    5,720
    I would be thrilled

    And also shocked.

    He's a very solid #4 starter now and still has room to grow. I think he can potentially become a high end #3, possibly bottom half #2 if he gets every bit of potential out of his ability.

    There is nothing wrong with that.
     
  7. raining threes

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2008
    Messages:
    12,274
    Likes Received:
    7,880
    For a Cy finalist and with the Cards need for starters this is a great deal for the Cards. IMHO
     
  8. raining threes

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2008
    Messages:
    12,274
    Likes Received:
    7,880
    You just described a Cy winner.
     
  9. Major

    Major Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 1999
    Messages:
    41,374
    Likes Received:
    15,796
    You're paying a guy for his well-timed career year at 34 years old. The likelihood he's anything close to that in his next 3 years is really low - there's a lot more downside to that contract than upside.
     
    raining threes likes this.
  10. raining threes

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2008
    Messages:
    12,274
    Likes Received:
    7,880
    You're probably right given his age. But Gray has had an above avg career. If Gray stays healthy he will be fine.
     
  11. Amadeus Rooster

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2023
    Messages:
    84
    Likes Received:
    81
    He was nailing it last year. I think he is a big reason for our upcoming 5 years of continuing the dynasty run.
     
    raining threes likes this.
  12. Buck Turgidson

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2002
    Messages:
    83,911
    Likes Received:
    81,924
    Sonny Gray's teams are 41-41 in his starts over the past 3 seasons.
     
    everyday eddie and Nick like this.
  13. J.R.

    J.R. Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2008
    Messages:
    106,136
    Likes Received:
    152,710
    https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/in...e-agency-trade-rumors-shohei-ohtani-juan-soto

    Shohei Ohtani
    The Ohtani extravaganza is barreling toward the finish line, and when he finally agrees to a deal, the number, sources said, will surge well beyond $500 million. One source said he believes Ohtani will receive a contract for at least $550 million. Another said the bidding could reach $600 million. Regardless of where it lands, it will shatter the record for the largest guarantee in North American sports history: the $426.5 million the Los Angeles Angels gave to Ohtani's teammate, Mike Trout.

    It would be foolish to count out any high revenue team, though by now the field for Ohtani's services has winnowed, sources said. The Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox and New York Mets, who were among the initial group of suitors, have turned their attention to other players, sources said. Among those confirmed by sources to be still in the bidding: the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays and Angels. The San Francisco Giants have long had a fondness for Ohtani, though where they stand in these sweepstakes is unknown.

    Juan Soto
    What looked inevitable across the industry a month ago -- the payroll-cutting Padres would be forced to trade Soto, who will make more than $30 million in arbitration before hitting free agency after the 2024 season -- is edging closer to becoming a reality for the franchise. San Diego, sources said, is engaging teams in trade talks for the 25-year-old, whom they acquired at the 2022 trade deadline.

    The potential complications are manifold. Soto's salary, even for one year, is a nonstarter for a number of teams. Others are loath to deal significant talent for a player who could leave after the season. And it's not out of the realm of possibility that the Padres could extend Soto, though sources said it's a long shot.

    The most obvious destination is the New York Yankees, who are seeking bats to spark an offense that ranked 25th in runs scored in MLB this season. The Yankees have the major league-ready pitching the Padres desire and a farm system deep enough to whet San Diego's appetite for a deal. The Giants, who have sought a foundational star for more than a year, have roadblocks as an in-division team but enough motivation to overcome them. The Cubs check three important boxes: need, talent and money. Other possibilities include the Philadelphia Phillies, who don't necessarily have the need but certainly the talent and money. The Red Sox and Mets both are in enough of a prospect-hoarding phase to hesitate pushing in for a player not signed beyond 2024. They're also two pitching weak major league teams and farm systems. But if the will is there, the inclusion of a third team in a potential deal could remedy the pitching issue. While it would be unlike the Baltimore Orioles to consider such a deal, the best farm system in baseball, though hitting-heavy, has the talent to do it.

    One team with a need for Soto and the talent to make it happen that might abstain from the bidding: the Seattle Mariners, who also were expected to be an Ohtani suitor but blanched at the money. If the Mariners were to move one of their young starters, it almost certainly would be for a cost-controlled bat with multiple years of team control.

    Should the Padres deal Soto and get significant pitching help back, it could free them, sources said, to pursue Jung-Hoo Lee -- a Korean outfielder ranked No. 14 on Kiley McDaniel's free agent rankings who is best friends with Ha-Seong Kim, San Diego's Gold Glove-winning infielder -- and Yuki Matsui, a left-handed closer from Japan, who could replace free agent Josh Hader at the back end of the Padres' bullpen.

    Yoshinobu Yamamoto
    It's difficult to remember a player with a market as robust as Yamamoto's. The 25-year-old right-hander will decide among a who's who of teams interested in him: The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox and Cubs are among the favorites, with the Giants, Blue Jays and Phillies also expected to be in the mix.

    The price for Yamamoto, officials who plan on pursuing the pitcher told ESPN, seems to be growing by the day. Multiple executives said the floor will be $200 million. Others said the cost of his contract could be in excess of $250 million -- which would mean another $39.38 million as a posting fee paid to the Orix Buffaloes, with whom Yamamoto has won three consecutive league MVP and Sawamura Awards.

    Dylan Cease
    Cease's popularity on the trade market is due as much to his contract status as his pitch quality. In a sea of trade-block pitchers who will hit free agency after 2024, Cease comes with two years before he hits the market.

    The controllability -- and cost control, with an estimated $9 million arbitration salary for the upcoming season and somewhere in the $14 to 16 million range the next year -- gives the White Sox, under new general manager Chris Getz, the ability to ask for a package built around a top prospect. Teams looking for frontline starting pitching include the Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, Atlanta Braves, Orioles, Arizona Diamondbacks and Cincinnati Reds -- and each can put together a package strong enough to entice the White Sox, whose last rebuild included the deal that landed them Cease, at the time in Low A.
     
    mikol13, jim1961 and raining threes like this.
  14. J.R.

    J.R. Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2008
    Messages:
    106,136
    Likes Received:
    152,710
    Tyler Glasnow
    The market for Glasnow has heated up in recent days, and rival executives expect Tampa Bay to move him sooner than later. The Rays' calculus is clear: Though they have the ability to push their payroll into the $130 million range, it seems imprudent to do so in a year where ace Shane McClanahan and starters Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen all are recovering from reconstructive elbow surgeries -- plus with the uncertainty surrounding shortstop Wander Franco, whom MLB is investigating after allegations of inappropriate relationships with underage girls in his native Dominican Republic.

    Dealing Glasnow is the easiest way to shed a significant salary. He's set to make $25 million this season before reaching free agency in the winter. While that number will scare off some teams, new suitors continue to reach out to the Rays as the pitching market takes shape.

    Further, the Rays will be busy beyond Glasnow. Their standard operating procedure is to listen to offers on everyone, and a farm system that churns out major league players on the regular affords them the flexibility to do so. Tampa Bay isn't necessarily looking to trade outfielder Randy Arozarena; a small number of teams have inquired, though that could grow in the coming weeks. With Arozarena set to make around $9 million this year, plus two arbitration raises beyond that, the Rays could move the 28-year-old for a significant windfall. Others potentially on the block include, but are not limited to, third baseman Isaac Paredes, second baseman Brandon Lowe, first baseman Harold Ramirez and outfielder Manuel Margot.

    Emmanuel Clase
    The Cleveland Guardians are open to dealing Clase, their All-Star closer who has led the AL in saves for two consecutive years, sources told ESPN. With Hader seeking a deal in the neighborhood of Edwin Diaz's (five years, $102 million) and the next-best closing option Jordan Hicks (with 32 career saves), Clase has broad appeal to any team looking for a bullpen upgrade.

    Clase's contract makes him even more attractive. He's owed $2.5 million in 2024, $4.5 million in 2025, $6 million in 2026 and has $10 million club options for 2027 and 2028. Every team in baseball can afford Clase at those prices.

    How much talent they're willing to pony up will determine whether he's moved. Clase blew a major league-high 12 saves last season en route to posting a career-worst 3.22 ERA. His strikeout rate dipped from 28.4% of batters to 21.2% -- below the league average of 22.7% -- and his groundball rate dropped, too.

    Still, Clase's 99-mph cutter is regarded as one of the best pitches in baseball, and his 91-mph slider isn't far behind. He walks fewer than two batters per nine innings, and his 0.42 homers per nine allowed since his 2019 debut is the best in baseball. Cleveland acquired Scott Barlow, Kansas City's closer for the past four seasons, in a trade with San Diego, so if the Guardians do what they do so well -- move controllable pitching for a multiplayer return -- they've got a ready-made replacement.

    Plenty more pitching
    Left-hander Jordan Montgomery might not have to wait for Yamamoto to choose a team or the trade market to get moving. Coming off a bravura performance for the World Series-winning Texas Rangers, he finds himself in a sweet spot: His performance certainly warrants a nine-figure deal, but not one so rich that he needs to draft off Yamamoto (which teams believe National League Cy Young winner Blake Snell will do). The Rangers want to re-sign him. He could be a strike-first option for Boston if it's feeling squishy about Yamamoto. Same to the Cubs, particularly if the top end of the market doesn't pan out. Something in the Patrick Corbin range, at six years and $140 million, feels like a reasonable landing spot, executives said.

    There's enough pitching still available that teams whiffing on Yamamoto and Montgomery won't be left entirely barren. In addition to Clase, the Guardians are entertaining the possibility of trading right-hander Shane Bieber, who won the 2020 AL Cy Young but leaves some teams slightly wary after spending 2½ months between July and September on the injured list with elbow inflammation. (In his final start Sept. 27, Bieber held the Reds to one run in six innings while striking out seven and walking none.)

    The Milwaukee Brewers have engaged teams in recent days on right-hander Corbin Burnes, according to sources. The 2021 NL Cy Young winner finished eighth in the voting this season on the strength of 200 strikeouts and 66 walks in 193⅔ innings with a 3.39 ERA. Like Bieber, Burnes is set to hit free agency after the 2024 season.

    Two other left-handers worth monitoring: Eduardo Rodriguez and Shota Imanaga. Rodriguez, 30, signed a mid-November free agent deal two years ago but opted out of the final three years and $49 million of that contract with the Detroit Tigers. Now he could join Aaron Nola (seven years, $172 million with Philadelphia) and Sonny Gray (three years, $75 million with St. Louis Cardinals) as big-money pitchers to go early. Imanaga, also 30, left Nippon Professional Baseball's Yokohama Bay Stars this winter after posting a 2.96 ERA over 1,129⅔ innings during his eight-year stint. While teams hoped they could get Imanaga on a Kodai Senga-like deal -- five years, $75 million -- his market has grown strong enough, sources said, that his deal could be closer to $100 million.

    The market for the other two top starters -- right-handers Lucas Giolito and Marcus Stroman -- should pick up soon, both as a function of the higher-priced signings and the run on mid-tier starters (Nick Martinez, Kenta Maeda, Reynaldo Lopez, Luis Severino, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn) shrinking the supply of pitching. Also still available: right-handers Yariel Rodriguez, Jack Flaherty, Seth Lugo, Mike Clevinger, Michael Lorenzen, Frankie Montas, Michael Wacha, Tyler Mahle and Erick Fedde and left-handers Hyun-Jin Ryu, James Paxton and Wade Miley.

    The wild card? Future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw, who underwent shoulder surgery in early November but said in an Instagram post: "I am hopeful to return to play at some point next summer." The market for Kershaw is expected to be small: the Dodgers, with whom he has spent the entirety of his 16-year career, or the Rangers, whose stadium is less than half an hour from where Kershaw grew up.
     
  15. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2002
    Messages:
    5,451
    Likes Received:
    2,278
    Isn't that FA for >90% of teams? Paying market rate for a guy that you probably wouldn't do if you didn't need to (aka if you were a good/smart team).

    This seems like a weird critique. Bad team signs Cy Young runner up at market rate and people are annoyed?

    If the Cards get a few years of "who he is" that's a big win. Remember the Jose Abreu deal....

    He played for Cinci and Minne over those years. That's life in the AL-mid and NL-mid. Luis Castillo had a 16-26 record in his last 2.5 years in Cinci.
     
    raining threes likes this.
  16. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Messages:
    10,844
    Likes Received:
    14,483
    If Clase really is available Houston should be all over that. I wanted Houston to trade for him before he signed that extension and if they are selling low after he blew 12 saves then he would be the perfect 8th inning guy for the Astros.
     
    raining threes and Hemingway like this.
  17. J.R.

    J.R. Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2008
    Messages:
    106,136
    Likes Received:
    152,710
    Removed
     
    #97 J.R., Dec 1, 2023
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2023
  18. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 1999
    Messages:
    47,856
    Likes Received:
    14,076
    It just echos the continued flawed mindset of paying high salaries for past performance. Much like the Kenta Maeda deal.

    The Twins got amazing value for Sonny Gray. There are Sonny Gray type pitchers available every year, yet it takes the perfect amount of scouting and luck to find those guys. Maeda was a great acquisition 4 years ago at $3 million a year, and he exceeded his value greatly. Again, that type of pitcher is available to somebody now.
     
  19. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2021
    Messages:
    5,122
    Likes Received:
    5,720
    The problem with that is

    Players have to play years and make barely anything compared to veterans, regardless of how well they do.

    Now you are saying they didn't get paid for being great before and they are not likely to continue being great so they shouldn't be paid in the future either

    So players should never actual get paid
     
  20. BlindHog

    BlindHog Member

    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2021
    Messages:
    1,411
    Likes Received:
    1,022
    Perhaps your idea of getting paid is unrealistic for the vast majority of players. Occasionally a player comes along that is actually productive over a long career but they are the exception rather than the rule. If contracts where written to reward a players contributions rather than a guaranteed rate without regard to merit teams would be more willing to pay players all that they are worth.
     

Share This Page