I've seen break even point calculated a lot of ways and it almost always ends up in the 70-75% range. The best ones weight the break even point on when steals are attempted and successful. Sure, there is some value in trying steals in areas that the steal would out be worth more. Though, defenses are aware of when stolen bases are worth more. Also, really favorable counts for steals along with pitcher-catcher being vulnerable to a stolen base threat is only a small subset of opportunities. The best value seems to be to steal when pitcher sucks at holding the runner on and runner is really confident he can steal on the pitcher regardless of base out state. Also, a new skill in baseball may be emerging -- coaxing disengagements. If a runner can get a pick off throw, the stolen base percentage jumps way up as pitcher really doesn't want to do 2 pick off throws. Tucker is the only current Astro that I am really comfortable trying to steal (Bregman was better earlier in his career, but has stopped trying). He's really good at catching the pitcher sleeping. Chas and Pena I need to see more to get comfortable.
I understand what the break even means. What I’m saying is that there might be some value to betraying even at a higher number than a lower number. Psychologically it can get under the skin of another team if every base runner is fixing to take off. Lead to pressure and perhaps mistakes. or- for a shittier team it adds randomness- because every stop base is either a success or failure. Maybe the day they go 3-3 they steal a win and the day they go 0-2 they were going to lose anyway.
I understand what the break even means. What I’m saying is that there might be some value to breaking even at a higher number than a lower number. Psychologically it can get under the skin of another team if every base runner is fixing to take off. Lead to pressure and perhaps mistakes. or- for a shittier team it adds randomness- because every stolen base is either a success or failure. Maybe the day they go 3-3 they steal a win and the day they go 0-2 they were going to lose anyway.
As the SB went the way of the sacrifice bunt the last several years, the Astros have moved away from it as an organization. The Astros have several very fast runners who have not stolen bases often. This may be because the team has had such a stacked lineup. It's tough to take the bat out of the hands of a good hitter. Interestingly, like Bagwell, Tucker is slow ( per baseball savant a 32 percentile in sprint speed for 2022 and fallen every year he has been in the bigs) but is a great base stealer. Pena is 96 percentile and stole 11 of 13 last year. He has 30 SB skill but is more likely to do that in bottom half of lineup as opposed to hitting 2nd or leadoff.
You are only looking at the edge when the steal is successful. Making the out gives the other team an out plus a much larger psychological edge that they know you are likely to shot yourself in the foot again in the future.
The psychological edge for a team that's always running doesn't really rely on the success of the specific attempt. With a team that steals a lot, the infielders all have to be more aware. The pitcher has to put more effort into watching the baserunners. The catcher has to be more ready to throw. There are more opportunities to make an error. It's just stuff that requires more focus and effort on the part of the defense that may affect other parts of their game. There's a long-term benefit to simply being known as a team that steals a lot even if you entirely stop stealing bases later. And as Wulaw said, a shitty team benefits by adding more randomness to outcomes. They were likely to lose anyway, so the most variability they get in their results, the more upsets they can pull.
What Major said. Basically it starts with- these guys are a mother****er to deal with when the starting pitcher gets out of bed in the morning. Every guy I put on via walk or basehit I'm going to have to focus on trying to stop from stealing. Throw over, hold the ball longer, vary my delivery, use my best move blah blah blah. Hope my catcher is paying attention. Not bounce a bunch of pitches in the dirt blah blah blah. Then you have relievers who just don't even have those skills b/c teams are afraid to run late. The whole thing seems like a bit of bother and trouble the opposing team has to face- especially if you are shitty. Put another way- I always would bet on Texas to kick Air Force's ass b/c Texas is a lot better than air force. But, I don't ever want them on the schedule because I'm used to football being played a certain way and I don't want to **** around with a team running the triple option and have to prepare for that and practice for that and play a different game than what I'm used to. I might snuff their running plays to the tune of better than break even- but I will resent having to do it. And, there will be some teams who just have confused responsibilites, lack discipline or something else and it leads to randomness and maybe upsets. Or another example- Steph Curry is 40% from 3's on 12 attempts a game. That is insanely more valuable than PJ Tucker being 40% on 3's from 3.2 attempts per game- not even close. If a baseball team could get to break even on something like 5 attempts a game that would completely and totally change the equation for how the other team approaches them. Lets say Pena gets 162 AB's leading off the game. He's on base 50 times. Lets say he steals a base, immediately, every single time he's on first. He goes 3/4. How long, pyscologically, do you think it's going to be before pitchers start wondering if they should not bounce that slider on a 2-2 or 3-2 count b/c they just don't want to deal with watching him stand on 2nd or 3rd 3 pitches later and get brought in by a ground ball and they are down 1-0 to start the game? Human nature is that you remember the 3 bags stolen more than the 1 time he got gunned down. That doesn't register. but man- those 3 times you started off down 1-0. **** that guy-I'm not letting him on base. It helps if you can break even at a higher volume than a lower volume- there's no way it doesn't. Because you own that pyscological factor before the game starts regardless of what you do.
Giving a team free outs is a way to fulfill the prophecy that a team remains shitty and loses every bit of psychological edge if not more, IMO. I could be wrong. Y'all could be wrong. I do agree randomness helps the weaker team. Though, they should do it by getting better base stealers and trying to steal a volume at above the break even point. I will say your position on psychological edge depends on the assumption that increasing volume is done at the break even mark (or close to it) such that you aren't actually hurting your team on the field. That likely is not true. Runners are already taking the easy steal opportunities and getting the pschological edge if there is any based on these opportunities. To increase volume of steals and end up breaking even versus stealing at 80-85%, a team is having to take risks on opportunities well below the break even level (i.e., you are trading outs for pshychological edge without increasing SBs enough to counter balance the additional outs). I will always take the path that likely helps the team win, get runs, and outs over a perceived notion that a team may or may not gain a psychological edge to make up that loss in the future by sabotaging themselves in the now.
WaPo... Astros 7th most affected by injuries thus far: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/04/14/mlb-injuries-early-season/ Yankees and Mets come in at 1 and 2. (Maybe stop getting injury prone players... just saying)... and RAYS at #3. 7. Houston Astros Speaking of the defending World Series champions, the Houston Astros have already encountered several major injuries this season. They lost annual MVP candidate and clubhouse north star Jose Altuve for at least two months when he broke his thumb in the World Baseball Classic. Super slugger Yordan Alvarez did not hit in a spring training game until late March because of a hand injury that plagued him last year, too. Despite the lack of early spring at-bats, he is currently hitting .300 with a .974 OPS. Starter Lance McCullers Jr. hit the injured list early in spring training with an elbow sprain suffered during a bullpen session. He just started throwing again. Veteran Michael Brantley, a proven left-handed hitter, is still working his way back from offseason surgery. If they didn’t have such a long history of working around major injuries to make their annual run through October anyway, the Astros might be higher on this list. But they have made due without some of the sport’s biggest stars in seasons’ past and shown few signs of slowing. Last year, for example, they did not have Brantley down the stretch or in October. They did just fine without him.
#StraightUpGarbage Spoiler https://news.sportslogos.net/2023/0...rs-unveil-new-city-connect-uniforms/baseball/
Pretty gross... then again, hard to have a "city connect" theme when there's really no identifying qualities of any of the cities in the metroplex (other than having 50,000 millionaires and fake TV shows actually filmed in California)... let alone Arlington.
I've lived in texas the majority of my life. Never once heard of 4/21 being celebrated as the date of Texas Independence. March 2, 1836 is the day Texas declared independence and 3/2 is the date that I celebrate it every year. Best I can tell from google/wikipedia, 4/21/1836 was the end of the Texas revolution. But that'd be the same as saying American independence was in 1791.
Really? San Jacinto Day was brought up in elementary school for me. By high school, Cinco De Mayo seemed more popular.
Unlike the ones implemented this year, these rules seem purposeless. Do we really need a random speedster just running the bases for every slow player in MLB? If a pitcher sucks or gets injured and doesn't make it 5 innings, do we really need to penalize that team more?
