If the clock was 5 seconds longer, games would probably be about as long as last year's games. If the clock was 10 seconds longer, I expect some pitchers would pitch to the clock and games would be longer than last season. If it was 15 seconds longer, I think that would be long enough that pitchers would just pitch like they did last year.
Current Season Stat Update for Rendon Rendon has connected on 0 hits during games. Rendon has connected on 0 hits after games.
Unless teams start to develop better counter measures one would have to think stolen bases are gonna go even higher with it's current success rate. It was never en vouge with the metrics because the value wasn't worth the risk, but an 85% chance of getting from 1st to second is huge. It jumps well clear of the % needed to break even. It's gonna be interesting watching the cat and mouse game evolve.
Will be interesting to see if there are repeat violators or just a bunch of one-offs. If its repeat violators, one would wonder if they really have to do more to adjust to this than just "adapt". Will also be interesting to see if this rate goes down with more games or stays the same. My guess is that it will go down. Also there has been some inconsistencies as to how the umps are calling it.
It looks like this will have a more far reaching effect than the shift ban. Speed and catchers with big arms will become much more valuable in this new paradigm. Speedy punch ‘n Judy hitters gonna be the next market inefficiency.
I'm not sure this has been decided. It looks like BABIP is up by 0.011 with over 2000 batted balls in play (round down for ease of math). 0.7 runs for singles yields about 15.4 runs for the 22 extra singles. A stolen base is worth about 0.25 runs (I've seen 0.2 to 0.3 values so I'm picking the middle) with a CS about -0.6. 70 steals with 14 CS would yield 9.1 runs. I think the stolen bases are much more noticeable as it is clear when it happens and it happens more often, but line drive hits are up and are more valuable per extra one(i.e., it looks like keeping 2B on the dirt is more important than keeping the SS on the leftside of the IF).
I'd get rid of the bigger bases if this keeps up, the pitch clock is already the biggest advantage for baserunners, maybe change the pickoff/balk rules somewhat. Last year, the Astros were an average base stealing team by volume, with 83. Albeit through 4 games, they're on pace for 243 this year. With the CS% at 15%, volume will only go up further until it balances out at 75%, or any reasonably speedy MLB player turns into Rickey Henderson.
Why? Steals are exciting and exactly the type of thing the sport could use more of and why they implemented these rules in the first place. Anything that can reduce the kung fu grip TTU has on baseball right now is a great thing.
According to Forbes, the A's made a $66 million dollar profit last year despite no attendance. I think they could afford to spend more to compete. Oakland fans have supporedt a winning team before, despite the awful stadium. They won't support a team that will pay absolutely nothing, no matter what.
Even if they spend the entire 66 million on payroll it would not be enough to have a large effect on such a bad team. Better to keep your powder dry till you have something more to work with.
Once people realized that all this was doing was bringing back the MLB of their youth, they forgot about being upset. This is the best baseball I have seen in decades. Small ball, speed, steals, getting the game moving along briskly.
All true… but they’ve traded or let foundational pieces go over the last few years that could have kept them in the playoff hunt. They had a really good team going into 2019 and then 2020. Covid certainly impacted all teams in 2020 but had there been a full season, the Astros still likely win the division but the A’s would have likely been close. Sure the playoffs were a crapshoot and the Astros waxed them good… but that was a frisky team. Also to work with your logic… the fans there aren’t going to spend good money to watch a team until they know there’s something worth watching. They’re also keeping their powder dry. It’s a Mexican Standoff! Brad Pitt cross-reference between moneyball and inglorious basterds.
