The 2023 Baseball Season - Things to Come

Having them on mini poles outside the stadium is a little different than hanging them on banners in the stadium.

 

They're hard to find these days. Sticker banners of division/wild cards are on the brick walls between the 300 and 400 level. I'm sure had the Astros not had this Golden Era those lesser accomplishment banners would still be around the train tracks.

 

Of course they would. Much like the Rangers have a wall of 'pennants' that features every division/playoff appearance and their two AL titles (and nothing else).

The more prolific teams (which the Astros are now most certainly a part of) decide to only feature the main ones (league pennants and WS wins)... whereas the best of the best only feature the WS wins (Yankees/Cardinals).

That's the goal going forward... win enough to get rid of the 05 and 21 pennants and have them sitting on the 300/400 level (while the division/wild card ones are in the bathrooms... lol)

 

First taste is always free for stuff like that, but the first taste of Apple baseball was f**king awful.

I might get a month and binge some shows with it, but sure as hell not paying for it just so I don't miss any games.

 

The Apple games were free last year?

 

Yes, it was initially just going to be free for the first 2 months, but they kept it free the whole year. Just needed to create a profile.

I'll wait until Ted Lasso has all the new episodes loaded and/or the Astros are playing their first game on Apple before getting the service again.

 

More minor rule tweaks:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35916318/mlb-making-small-changes-pitch-clock-rules-memo-says

This one is fun:

• New standards will be enforced for bat boys and bat girls, whose ability to quickly retrieve equipment will help efforts to speed up the game, according to the memo. The league will evaluate the performances of bat boys and bat girls and could ask teams to replace them if their performance is considered substandard.

 

They need a union.

 

Bingo re upped last week to see what's up with Nate the Great, and Roy F'ing Kent.
If I had to pay for just baseball that would be a hard pass. That crew sucked last year.

 

The broadcasts were bad and the lack of pause and rewind was ridiculous.

But I wasn't paying for it, so...

 

Boo. Hiss.

 

Guess nobody here owns an apple device or has kids that now have (demanded) one… they give apple + tv subscriptions away like Halloween candy. Didn’t realize I still had it till I read this thread.

 

Not sure if being facetious, but being a batboy is a more demanding job than what most people (myself included) envisioned. My good friend was the bat boy throughout high school. For a normal 7pm game, he needed to be at MMP by 2pm, and he wouldn’t leave the stadium until well after midnight. He has a ton of cool stories, met a lot of cool/nice players, and a lot of jerk players, but it is a a lot of hard work. It’s not just jogging after bats and foul balls. Tons of laundry, cleaning, players need spikes cleaned between each game. They are not paid well and rely on tips which vary based on team/player. And just because players have money does not mean they tip well.

 

How does a HS kid work 8 hours a day and get to the stadium at 2pm?

 

15. Yordan Alvarez
38. Kyle Tucker
39. Alex Bregman
42. Framber Valdez
52. Jeremy Pena
67. Jose Altuve
70. Cristian Javier
89. Jose Abreu

Spoiler

1. Shohei Ohtani | SP/DH | Los Angeles Angels
2. Mike Trout | CF | Los Angeles Angels
3. Aaron Judge | OF | New York Yankees
4. Manny Machado | 3B | San Diego Padres
5. Freddie Freeman | 1B | Los Angeles Dodgers
6. Juan Soto | RF | San Diego Padres
7. Julio Rodriguez | CF | Seattle Mariners
8. Trea Turner | SS | Philadelphia Phillies
9. Mookie Betts | RF | Los Angeles Dodgers
10. Nolan Arenado | 3B | St. Louis Cardinals
11. Sandy Alcantara | SP | Miami Marlins
12. Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | St. Louis Cardinals
13. Jose Ramirez | 3B | Cleveland Guardians
14. Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF | Atlanta Braves

15. Yordan Alvarez | LF/DH | Houston Astros

At the All-Star break last season, a case could have been made for Alvarez to win the AL MVP. Judge changed all of that but the fact remains, Alvarez has become one of the most dangerous lefties in the game. He and Judge were the only two players in baseball last season with an OPS over 1.000. And now he has done that twice in his career -- not an easy stat line to achieve even one time.

Alvarez isn't a great outfielder but he's improved over time. With Jose Abreu entrenched at first base -- and needing some at-bats at DH -- it's possible Alvarez plays more in left field. But he's not being paid for his defense. The former rookie of the year will certainly have multiple chances at winning his first MVP because of his offensive prowess after finishing third in 2022.

Season prediction: Alvarez will lead the league in hit by pitches and intentional walks. -- Rogers

16. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | Toronto Blue Jays
17. Francisco Lindor | SS | New York Mets
18. Austin Riley | 3B | Atlanta Braves
19. Gerrit Cole | SP | New York Yankees
20. Rafael Devers | 3B | Boston Red Sox
21. J.T. Realmuto | C | Philadelphia Phillies
22. Justin Verlander | SP | New York Mets
23. Corbin Burnes | SP | Milwaukee Brewers
24. Carlos Correa | SS | Minnesota Twins
25. Fernando Tatis Jr. | RF | San Diego Padres
26. Aaron Nola | SP | Philadelphia Phillies
27. Max Scherzer | SP | New York Mets
28. Xander Bogaerts | SS | San Diego Padres
29. Pete Alonso | 1B | New York Mets
30. Shane Bieber | SP | Cleveland Guardians
31. Wander Franco | SS | Tampa Bay Rays
32. Max Fried | SP | Atlanta Braves
33. Zack Wheeler | SP | Philadelphia Phillies
34. Carlos Rodon | SP | New York Yankees
35. Adley Rutschman | C | Baltimore Orioles
36. Shane McClanahan | SP | Tampa Bay Rays
37. Luis Castillo | SP | Seattle Mariners

38. Kyle Tucker | RF | Houston Astros

Tucker is slowly advancing up the list of most dangerous lefties in the game, in part because of his ability to hit lefties. His career .808 OPS against left-handed pitching isn't all that different from his .853 one vs. righties. Of course, that was all achieved with the shift in place. Without it, Tucker's 2023 batting average should go up after hitting .257 in 2022.

Tucker just keeps getting better. He has an 11 bWAR combined over the past two seasons, finishing 20th in MVP voting in 2021 and then 15th in 2022 to go along with his first All-Star appearance and first Gold Glove for his outfield defense. More of the same will keep Tucker rising in the ratings. It's not impossible for him to be a top-20 player going into 2024. He has the talent.

Season prediction: Tucker takes another leap, repeating as Gold Glove winner while hitting 35-plus home runs with a batting average at least 20 points higher than his 2022 mark. -- Rogers

39. Alex Bregman | 3B | Houston Astros

When we last ran MLB rank in 2021, Bregman was a top-15 fixture. He was sixth in 2019, 12th in 2020 and 13th in 2021. But after three solid seasons that were well off his peak in 2018-2019, he's landed here. It seems about right given what his new level of play seems to be after three years and over 1,200 plate appearances. Peak Bregman was the full package -- elite power, lots of walks, elite run run production, even some steals. The new version has similar strike-zone mastery and exit velocities but the BABIP results just haven't been the same. Though he hits righty, the shift has been a bane for Bregman and perhaps its departure will be a boost.

Season prediction: While Bregman might not have any more 40-homer seasons in him, it would be surprising if there isn't another MVP-level season or two in his future. The Astros will be fine either way: Houston has advanced at least to the ALCS in all six seasons since Bregman became a regular. -- Doolittle

40. Corey Seager | SS | Texas Rangers
41. Michael Harris II | CF | Atlanta Braves
42. Framber Valdez | SP | Houston Astros

With three wins in three starts and just two runs allowed over 19⅓ innings in the ALCS and World Series, Valdez is a big reason why the Astros are the reigning champions. He really came into his own in 2022, leading the AL in innings, while completing three games and winning 17, all while putting up an ERA+ of 137. For all of that, Valdez finished fifth in the AL Cy Young balloting and made his first All-Star team.

Valdez didn't do much differently last season in terms of arsenal, he was just a better, more precise pitcher who attacked the bottom of the strike zone, rarely missed in the middle of the plate and routinely put away hitters with his outstanding curveball. All Valdez really has to do to move up the rankings from here is to do it all over again. This time, he'll get a chance to show his stuff as the ace of the Astros' rotation now that Verlander has moved on.

Season prediction: Valdez sat out the WBC rather than pitching for the Dominican Republic after his jump in regular-season innings was followed by the heavy load he carried in October. The Astros might not overwork him early in the season, but beyond that, there is no reason to think that Valdez will fall off from last season's form. Expect more of what we saw in 2022. -- Doolittle

43. Dylan Cease | SP | Chicago White Sox
44. Jacob deGrom | SP | Texas Rangers
45. Zac Gallen | SP | Arizona Diamondbacks
46. Julio Urias | SP | Los Angeles Dodgers
47. Will Smith | C | Los Angeles Dodgers
48. Andrés Gimenez | 2B | Cleveland Guardians
49. Bo Bichette | SS | Toronto Blue Jays
50. Spencer Strider | SP | Atlanta Braves

 

Spoiler

51. Alek Manoah | SP | Toronto Blue Jays

52. Jeremy Peña | SS | Houston Astros

His strong rookie season and World Series MVP award helped Astros fans quickly move past the departure of Correa. Peña lived up to his reputation as a strong fielder, but he also displayed more power than expected, hitting 22 homers in 136 games with a .253/.289/.426 batting line. There's certainly room for growth with the young shortstop, but he ranked alongside Trea Turner and Ha-Seong Kim in terms of their impacts on the field, hovering around a 4.8-4.9 bWAR.

Season prediction: Peña takes a step forward with his batting average while maintaining his elite glove, solidifying himself as one of the game's most valuable shortstops. -- Lee

53. Matt Olson | 1B | Atlanta Braves
54. Dansby Swanson | SS | Chicago Cubs
55. Brandon Woodruff | SP | Milwaukee Brewers
56. Cedric Mullins | CF | Baltimore Orioles
57. Jeff McNeil | 2B | New York Mets
58. Bryce Harper | RF/DH | Philadelphia Phillies
59. Emmanuel Clase | RP | Cleveland Guardians
60. Jazz Chisholm Jr. | CF | Miami Marlins
61. Tim Anderson | SS | Chicago White Sox
62. Bryan Reynolds | CF | Pittsburgh Pirates
63. George Springer | OF | Toronto Blue Jays
64. Byron Buxton | CF | Minnesota Twins
65. Marcus Semien | 2B | Texas Rangers
66. Sean Murphy | C | Atlanta Braves

67. Jose Altuve | 2B | Houston Astros

As with Harper, Altuve would have ranked a lot higher, but the broken thumb he suffered in the World Baseball Classic will keep him sidelined indefinitely and well into the season. When Altuve scuffled through a rough COVID-shortened 2020 season, it appeared Father Time might have been starting his victory lap, even if it was just a 48-game sample. Altuve has proven every skeptic wrong throughout his career and did so again. The 2022 season was one of his best, as he matched his MVP year of 2017 with a 160 OPS+ and finished fifth in the AL MVP voting.

Even without the injury, Altuve was a good bet to regress, at least a little. He turns 33 in May, and despite launching 39 doubles and 28 home runs last season, his hard-hit rate was the lowest of his career. That's cause for concern, although he doesn't swing and miss much, and he did show sudden growth in his plate discipline, with big improvements in chase rate and walk rate. If that holds, he'll continue to age well.

Season prediction: Altuve's .300 batting average last year was 31 points higher than his expected batting average going into the season. We don't know how the injury will ultimately affect his power, but his launch angle and ability to pull everything is ideal for home runs. I think the average takes a dip back into the .270 range that it was in 2021. -- Schoenfield

68. Brandon Nimmo | CF | New York Mets
69. Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | Kansas City Royals

70. Cristian Javier | SP | Houston Astros

Javier keeps inching his way towards a monster season. He appeared as a starter and reliever both in last year's regular season and postseason. That's how valuable he was to the Astros' run to a title. This year, he may find his way to the top of the Astros' rotation or at least right behind Valdez. His fastball has so much life on it, he should blow past 200 strikeouts in 2023. As is, he had 194 in 148 innings last season, good for an eye-popping 33.2% strikeout rate. One of every three batters went down by strikeout against Javier. He could be a Cy Young candidate if those numbers continue over the course of 32 starts.

Season prediction: If healthy, Javier will lead the league in K's with over 250. -- Rogers

71. Logan Webb | SP | San Francisco Giants
72. Gunnar Henderson | 3B | Baltimore Orioles
73. Corbin Carroll | OF | Arizona Diamondbacks
74. Ozzie Albies | 2B | Atlanta Braves
75. Nestor Cortes | SP | New York Yankees
76. Triston McKenzie | SP | Cleveland Guardians
77. Pablo Lopez | SP | Minnesota Twins
78. Joe Musgrove | SP | San Diego Padres
79. Steven Kwan | LF | Cleveland Guardians
80. Yu Darvish | SP | San Diego Padres
81. Kyle Schwarber | LF | Philadelphia Phillies
82. Matt Chapman | 3B | Toronto Blue Jays
83. Luis Arraez | 2B | Miami Marlins
84. Randy Arozarena | LF | Tampa Bay Rays
85. Kevin Gausman | SP | Toronto Blue Jays
86. Starling Marte | RF | New York Mets
87. Clayton Kershaw | SP | Los Angeles Dodgers
88. Tyler Glasnow | SP | Tampa Bay Rays

89. José Abreu | 1B | Houston Astros

If all you knew about Abreu was that he was two years removed from an MVP award and just signed a three-year free agent contract, you'd think the champion Astros just snagged themselves an in-his-prime superstar. That might not be precisely the case, but even at 36, Abreu remains a premier run producer who will likely slot right into the cleanup slot in Houston.

His RBI count dropped to 75 last season, and it wasn't just a function of diminished opportunity, as his RBI percentage fell from 42% to 31%. His homers fell from 30 to 15 and isolated power fell from .219 to a career low .141. Still, Abreu hit .304, and his exit velocities and barrel rates remained largely unchanged. Clearly, the Astros noticed.

Season prediction: Abreu is a hard worker, remarkably consistent, a leading clubhouse voice and enters the coming season on a quest for his first World Series ring. You can pretty much count on another 100-RBI season even if his power doesn't rebound all the way back to pre-2022 levels. -- Doolittle

90. Willy Adames | SS | Milwaukee Brewers
91. George Kirby | SP | Seattle Mariners
92. Luis Robert Jr. | CF | Chicago White Sox
93. Daulton Varsho | OF | Toronto Blue Jays
94. Willson Contreras | C | St. Louis Cardinals
95. Ke'Bryan Hayes | 3B | Pittsburgh Pirates
96. Ketel Marte | 2B | Arizona Diamondbacks
97. Lucas Giolito | SP | Chicago White Sox
98. Logan Gilbert | SP | Seattle Mariners
99. Teoscar Hernandez | RF | Seattle Mariners
100. Eloy Jimenez | OF/DH | Chicago White Sox

 

24. Framber Valdez
32. Cristian Javier
33. Luis Garcia
T-39. Lance McCullers

https://theathletic.com/4328582/2023/03/23/mlb-aces-project-pitcher-rankings/

Spoiler

[…] For each player, the panelist provided a scouting grade, from a No. 1 pitcher to a No. 5. This is the present-day grade on these pitchers: Who they are right now. If a respondent wanted to denote that the pitcher could one day become a No. 1, the grade included an asterisk, classifying status as an “applicant.”

The grading system is also straightforward. A No. 1 grade nets five points, a No. 2 grade nets four, No. 3 nets three, No. 4 nets two and No. 5 nets one. An asterisk adds a half point to the score. We culled the list down to a top 50, split into five tiers:

Tier 1 (100) — The Inner Circle: The unanimous No. 1s.
Tier 2 (99.5 to 90) — Aces: The pitchers you can trust all regular season and again in October.
Tier 3 (89.5 to 80) — The Pool of Applicants: The men who might one day call themselves aces.
Tier 4 (79.5 to 60) — No. 2s and No. 3s: Those with lower ceilings, but still elevated floors. It should be noted — these guys are awesome at baseball.
Tier 5 (59.5 and below) — Guys: Everyone else. Or, in the parlance of the scouting world, “just a guy.”

So, back to that question. Who are the aces in baseball? This is our best attempt at telling you.

Tier 1 (100) — The Inner Circle
1. Justin Verlander, RHP, New York Mets
Rating: 100
Ace votes: 20
Age: 40
2022 stats: 18-4, 1.75 ERA, 175 IP, 9.5 K/9, 2.49 FIP
2022 rating: Not ranked

You may notice that Verlander was unranked last year. That’s because he wasn’t featured on the survey after missing almost all of 2020 and 2021. It didn’t seem fair to ask evaluators what to make of him.

Well. Now we know.

Verlander returned from Tommy John surgery with one of the best seasons of his storied career. He captured the World Series and the American League Cy Young award. On the wrong side of 40, he expects to do it all again with the Mets this season. He is 56 victories away from 300. Would you bet against him?

“He will always be a No. 1,” one scout said.

“To miss a year and still come back as a No. 1 is crazy,” one executive said.

“At 40, this is what the best pitcher in baseball looks like,” one evaluator said.

Tier 2 (99.5 — 90) — Aces
2 (tie). Corbin Burnes, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
2 (tie). Gerrit Cole, RHP, New York Yankees
4. Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Miami Marlins
5. Max Scherzer, RHP, New York Mets
6. Shohei Ohtani, RHP, Los Angeles Angels
7. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Texas Rangers
8. Aaron Nola, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies

Tier 3 (89.5 to 80) — The Pool of Applicants
9. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
10. Spencer Strider, RHP, Atlanta Braves
11. Max Fried, LHP, Atlanta Braves
12 (tie). Shane McClanahan, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
12 (tie). Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
14. Luis Castillo, RHP, Seattle Mariners
15. Carlos Rodón, LHP, New York Yankees
16. Julio Urías, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
17. Zac Gallen, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Tier 4 (79.5 to 60) — No. 2s and No. 3s
18. Shane Bieber, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
19. Dylan Cease, RHP, Chicago White Sox
20 (tie). Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
20 (tie). Alek Manoah, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
22. Yu Darvish, RHP, San Diego Padres
23. Kevin Gausman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

24. Framber Valdez, LHP, Houston Astros
Rating: 74
Ace votes: 1
Age: 29
2022 stats: 17-6, 2.82 ERA, 201 1/3 IP, 8.7 K/9, 3.06 FIP
2022 rating: 57

The Astros were willing to let Verlander leave, in part, because the team possessed a stockpile of starters behind him. Valdez will supplant Verlander as the group’s leader. He earned that with an excellent season in 2022. He leaned on his combination of two-seam sinkers and sliders to become one of only eight pitchers to surpass the 200-inning threshold. His numbers may take a hit in 2023 with the new restrictions on defensive shifts. Valdez produced more groundballs than any starter in the sport last year.

25. Logan Webb, RHP, San Francisco Giants
26 (tie). Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
26 (tie). Joe Musgrove, RHP, San Diego Padres
28. Triston McKenzie, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
29. Logan Gilbert, RHP, Seattle Mariners
30 (tie). George Kirby, RHP, Seattle Mariners
30 (tie). Kyle Wright, RHP, Atlanta Braves

32. Cristian Javier, RHP, Houston Astros
Rating: 62
Ace votes: 1
Age: 26
2022 stats: 11-9, 2.54 ERA, 148 2/3 IP, 11.7 K/9, 3.16 FIP
2022 rating: Not ranked

Last October, Javier may have possessed the most effective pitch of all the players in the postseason. It was not a hellacious curveball or nasty slider. It was not a disorienting changeup. It was not a gimmicky offering like a knuckleball, or a sharpened scythe like Mariano Rivera’s cutter. It was a deceptively devastating, four-seam fastball. In a sport that’s become increasingly breaking-ball heavy, Javier dominates with “a unicorn, 80-grade fastball,” one evaluator said.

The pitch clocks at around 94 mph. Javier throws it about 60 percent of the time. And no one can hit it.

Seriously. He gave up one hit in his two postseason starts, one a destruction of the Yankees and the other a no-hitter in the World Series. Houston secured him for the next five seasons with a $64 million extension. That might look like a bargain, if Javier’s fastball remains that elite.

33. Luis Garcia, RHP, Houston Astros
Rating: 60
Age: 26
2022 stats: 15-8, 3.72 ERA, 157 1/3 IP, 9.0 K/9, 3.93 FIP
2022 rating: 59.5

His delivery, baffling and beautiful though it was, is no more. Alas. With the new rules in place, Garcia will have to be known now as yet another rotation mainstay developed by the Astros. He resided in the bullpen last October. With Justin Verlander gone, Garcia will move up in Dusty Baker’s pitching hierarchy.

Tier 5 (59.5 and below) — Guys
34. Nestor Cortes, LHP, New York Yankees
35 (tie). Pablo López, LHP, Minnesota Twins
35 (tie). Drew Rasmussen, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
37. Hunter Greene, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
38. Robbie Ray, LHP, Seattle Mariners
39 (tie). Jesús Luzardo, LHP, Miami Marlins

39 (tie). Lance McCullers Jr., LHP, Houston Astros
Rating: 56
Age: 29
2022 stats: 4-2, 2.27 ERA, 47 2/3 IP, 9.4 K/9, 3.49 FIP
2022 rating: 71.5

McCullers has been effective in proscribed doses in recent years, as he has dealt with a procession of arm injuries. Elbow trouble limited him to eight starts last season. “Turns out throwing 10,000 curveballs isn’t great for long-term health,” one scout mused. “Who knew?” Yes, McCullers is well known for his aversion to his fastball. He threw the pitch fewer than 25 percent of the time in 2022. His reliance on off-speed means his control can be scattershot. “He still doesn’t really command it,” another evaluator said. “But there’s a lot of games where it doesn’t matter, because it’s just nasty, nasty s—-.”

41. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox
42 (tie). Chris Bassitt, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
42 (tie). Jack Flaherty, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
42 (tie). Patrick Sandoval, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
45. Blake Snell, LHP, San Diego Padres
46. Chris Sale, LHP, Boston Red Sox
47. Tony Gonsolin, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
48. Brady Singer, RHP, Kansas City Royals
49 (tie). Tyler Anderson, RHP, Los Angeles Angels
49 (tie). Charlie Morton, RHP, Atlanta Braves
49 (tie). Freddy Peralta, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

Honorable Mention

The Kyle Hendricks Award For Outstanding Performance In Upsetting The Commenters
Reid Detmers, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
Marcus Stroman, RHP, Chicago Cubs

The Harder They Fall Award
José Berríos, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

The Adam Wainwright Award, Presented Annually To Adam Wainwright
Adam Wainwright, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals