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The 2023 Baseball Season - Things to Come

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by jim1961, Nov 6, 2022.

  1. Jeremy Williams

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    Might as well just do OPS.
     
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  2. Jeremy Williams

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    Altuve 25-30 HR, OPS .920 OPS+ 160
    Peña 30-40 HR, OPS .960 OPS+ 160
    Alvarez 40-50 HR, OPS 1.05 OPS+ 190
    Bregman 30-40 HR, OPS .950 OPS+ 160
    Tucker 30-40 HR, .850 OPS+ 140
    Abreu 20-30 HR, OPS .850 OPS+ 140
    Brantley 15-25 HR, OPS .800 OPS+ 125
    McCormick 20-30 HR, OPS .750 OPS+ 120
    Maldonado 10-20 HR, OPS .600 OPS+ 75
     
    #442 Jeremy Williams, Dec 20, 2022
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2022
  3. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    That is wildly optimistic on Pena. Everybody else looks reasonable. I will be very (pleasantly) surprised if Pena ever hits >30 HR or bats >.275.
     
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  4. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    I was trying to coordinate with the BA predictions of the post I was responding to so OB% seemed best.

    FYI OPS+ changes from year to year based on different factors.

    One-year a .700 OPS could = 110 OPS+
    Another it could be = 90 OPS+

    It's based on league average.

    Example;
    Yuli 2019 .884 OPS = 126 OPS+
    Yuli 2021 .846 OPS = 131 OPS+
     
  5. Jeremy Williams

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    I’m a believer in Peña’s power and his mechanics. Over the last 1/4 of his AB (postseason included) he hit 10 HR, 8 2B, 1 3B and carried an OPS of 1.024.
     
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  6. Jeremy Williams

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    Agreed. That’s why i did both OPS and OPS+.
     
  7. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    I love Pena and will enjoy watching him the next 5 years and hopefully more.

    That said, I expect him to settle in as a slightly better than average hitter with exceptional defense which is fine with me.

    A 30 HR season would not surprise me but a 35 HR season, or multiple 30 HR seasons would.

    I expect him to average 22-25 HR with a slightly low average, low OB%, and slightly above average SLG and OPS due to high doubles and triples numbers.

    3+ gold gloves maybe a platinum glove with a couple all star selections. No silver sluggers though.

    Much better than average overall player but not MVP calibur
     
  8. raining threes

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    I'm just glad Yuli was the starting 1B on a championship team.

    He certainly carried his weight in the playoffs against top tier pitching when it mattered most.
     
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  9. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    With the pitching staff as it sits, I am fine.

    However if Garcia or Urquidy ( or SURPRISED BY a different starter) are traded.

    How would you guys feel about bringing Greinke back?

    He NEEDS a ring.

    He had a solid but unspectacular season.
    17th season in a row with ERA+ over 100.
    Much better than MLB avg HR and BB per 9
    Dependable if no longer great
    Relies on defense so should improve in Houston.

    With KC signing Lyles it looks like he needs a place to pitch and he knows this team and culture. May want to chase a ring and could be ultimate #5 starter.
     
  10. ApolloRLB

    ApolloRLB Member

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    May need to have OPS+ based on which ball MLB uses now too :)
     
  11. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Here’s hoping. He will be getting MVP votes if he hits 30+ HR.
     
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  12. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    #452 J.R., Dec 20, 2022
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2022
  13. Marshall Bryant

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    I think we are still paying him deferred payments.

    https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/houston-astros/cash/

    Yep. $12.5M.
     
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  14. Major

    Major Member

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    I don't know that he's a good fit. He doesn't eat innings or go deep into games, he wouldn't start for the Astros in the playoffs, and he's not the power-pitcher type that you want to move to the bullpen during a playoff run. He's good injury insurance for the regular season, but probably doesn't even make a playoff roster barring major SP injuries.

    edit: in your scenario, if they go with a 6 man rotation in the regular season, he'd be fine in that role. But don't want him getting in the way of our other starters who need to start regularly and get experience pitching 150+ innings a year.
     
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  15. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    I agree with all this.

    Barring injury I would not expect him on the playoff roster and don't want him at all unless one of the current 6 projected starters is traded or hurt.

    He's JAG at this point but IF and ONLY IF a veteran starter is needed I can think of many worse.

    I would love to see him get a ring

    And he is always fun to watch
     
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  16. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    The Mets Will Soon Become The Most Hated Team In Baseball
    What was the Evil Empire before Darth Vader?

    Sure, they were lurking in the shadows with Senator Palpatine pulling all of the strings. But it was not until he turned Anakin Skywalker to the Dark Side that Palpatine was able to show his true nature to take over the galaxy and rule it with an iron fist.

    This is exactly what we just saw play out in the dark of night when Steve Cohen pulled off the biggest stunner of the offseason, swooping in to sign Carlos Correa to a 12-year, $315 million deal to play third base next to his $341 million shortstop, Francisco Lindor.

    https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/the-mets-will-soon-become-the-most-hated-team-in-baseball/

    More than the Stros???
     
  17. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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  18. awc713

    awc713 Member

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  19. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    That’s a great deal for Baltimore depending on what prospect they gave up.
     
  20. RunninRaven

    RunninRaven Member
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    I was just thinking the other day that it feels like a while since I've seen a trade that involves a PTBNL. I thought maybe that concept had been removed from the CBA or something. Always felt like such an odd concept that I think only baseball does.
     

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