The Braves are super aggressive and offer really low-service time extensions. The Astros (and most teams) don't tend to do that. So far it hasn't burned the Braves yet.
For Framber I would be offering something like $80M/6yrs plus award incentives. That buys out 3 years of free agency and takes him thru his age 35 season. He is probably on track to earn ~$40M in arbitration over the next 3 years, so that’s buying out 3 free agent seasons for $40M; a huge bargain if he stays healthy/effective but not so much that it would cause major issues if he tanks. Javier is only 25, so there’s more options to extend him. I would probably try for a shorter deal, something like $60M/5yrs to buy out 2 free agent years and take him thru age 30. But I could also see a longer deal (maybe $85M/8yrs plus award incentives) if Houston really believes in him. Both players signed for peanuts so don’t really have the kind of financial security an extension would provide.
Tucker has said he is open to an extension. I just think he will only agree to an extension that is very close to what he will get once he reaches FA. It will take much more than Yordan agreed to. I would still love it to happen but not sure if the team is willing to go high enough ( or should) What we as fans need to realize is that every extension hurts the payroll shorterm and helps long term if the player continues to be good. For instance. Yordan Alvarez has a AAV of $19.165M for 2023 ( and next several years) Pete Alonzo got $7.4M his 1st year of arbitration and Cody Bellinger agreed to $11.5M ( record for 1st yr arb player). Looking at those, I would expect Yordan's salary to be in the $9-10M range next season if he had not agreed to the extension. Instead the Astros are paying about $10M more than they COULD be for 2023. That likely limits the number of those the team is able to give out.
AAV has to be managed, but the actual salaries normally reflect salaries of Arbitration years at a discount from salaries of FA years covered by the contract. The closer you get to FA, the higher the AAV because of this discount. Correa did not sign early because he did not think the injury risk should be significant in his value.The Astros thought otherwise. But if both wanted to reach an agreement, then they could have worked something out with incentives.
It is becoming apparent the process the Astros like to use is approaching a player they view as a core player before his last Club Control year with an offer to extend for his 3 arbitration years and 3 FA years. Tucker was approached last year and Yordan was approached before THIS year. Alvarez agreed and Tucker did not. I'm sure they will try to sign Tucker again this off season for the same 3 arbitration years and 3 FA years. Perhaps a bit higher with another 5 WAR season under his belt. But this will b a very busy off season.
AAV is the only thing that matters. Unless you think Crane is searching under the couch cushions to find spare change to pay the contract.
AAV matters if you don't want to pay the tax. But the yearly salaries are a clue to the valuation of the components of the Contracts, ie FA years and Arbitration years. So far, we haven't negotiated a contract with FA years valued at over $30M for extensions. This would be required if we extend Tucker and he values his FA years over $6M/WAR.
I'm astonished that Bochy is only 67. He's been a manager for basically as long as I've been watching baseball.
I was about to post this. Kind of annoying that each year they go after someone big if the previous year wasn't a success(as in no World Series). But I guess they could loss Turner so basically losing 1 star for another. I hope they drive up the price and the Yankees end up signing him. Imo, Yankees signing him and maybe adding 1 more piece is worse for them than them letting him go and using the money they saved on a couple of good players. Also off topic, I wonder if Rizzo opts out and asks for more money and term from the Yankees lol
Rizzo would be an interesting addition. He's basically Brantley's salary and production (more power/less avg).
The point is to dollar cost average the productive players by buying out lower cost arbitration years and incorporating the high value Free Agent years. But a few clubs forget to normalize the value and just offer FA money for all years. Those idiots are who we would have to compete with if we do the same.
