The Astros are 25-8 over the last 5 weeks. I'll be curious to see if they keep winning of take their foot off the gas like they did last year (with a big division lead). With basically anyone over .500% making the playoffs this year it will impact the trade deadline, just not sure how it will yet. With the hot last 6 weeks, all of the Astros regular starting position players are now in positive WAR territory except Maldonado who is still at -.6 The only Astros position player that has been as bad or worse than Maldonado per appearance has been his back up, Castro who sports a -.3 in less than half as many opportunities. The Astros catching situation is at a -.9 for the season - which is really bad. Maybe they can go find Tony Eusebio to get some at bats.
My last comment on the matter. Us and the Rangers have to play a grand total of 10-15 extra late games when you factor everything in. They seem to happen a lot more than they actually do, it's not that big of a deal.
There's always the problem of rivalries when trying to make changes to divisions and leagues. And some teams will be screwed because of time zone imbalances. But you can make it better if you just eliminate traditional rivalries with the ease of traditional baseball play like the DH and defensive alignments governed by managers rather than rules.
You can expect more losses soon if we don't pick up some consistent offense due to scheduling. It starts with facing two excellent pitchers in three games against Miami (responsible for 10 of their 22 total wins) and 9 games against either the Mets or Yankees to finish the month.
Having any division with teams two time zones away has NEVER made sense. But screwing the Texas teams with Western division alignments is an MLB tradition. Astros 1969-1993 NLW Atlanta had it worse. 3 Time zones away. 1994-2012 NLC 2013-2022 ALW Texas 1972-2022 ALW
That is what I am expecting as well. With the expanded playoff and the division lead, I am not expecting the Astros to really add much to their offense. They are set at: 2nd, SS, 3rd and LF, RF. That leaves possible upgrades at 1st, C and CF. They have Meyers coming back and McCormick and Siri on low dollar contracts and team control for years. Meyers last year was on pace for 5 WAR per 150 games.... this year Siri is on pace for nearly 4 WAR as a part time player and McCormick is a good 4th outfielder. So in order for the Astros to really used money or prospect costs to improve in CF, they would need to get a real strong upgrade and that isn't lilely. At first base there is Gurriel who is a mainstay on the Astros and is well liked. He is coming off a 4 WAR season and a batting title and .850 OPS. Not to mention that the Astros like his glove and value his lack of strike outs. He isn't walking at all this year, and there are concerns for a play his age, so it is at least possible they look to see the cost to upgrade, but there isn't a lot available out there. Josh Bell? Christian Walker? Ty France? Bell is likely an upgrade and the prospect cost shouldn't be insane, but how big an upgrade is he, and is it worth issues in the locker room? Walker is having a good year but is an all or nothing type player at the plate that the Astros dislike, especially in the playoffs. Ty France is likely a better player than Yuli at this point. He is a solid hitter, but may cost good prospects. At the catcher spot, there is the fact that the Astros front office loves everything about him except his bat. Also, there are not a lot of options to improve out there. The Astros would likely take Wilson Contreras, he is a massive upgrade as a hitter - but the Cubs asking price has been very high for a rental, and it is expected multiple teams will drive his asking price up at the deadline. At this point it seems that the Astros are more likely to look at the pitching side of things if they make an even medium sized deal.
I haven't seen how Yordan's contract will be spread out for AAV Tax Cap calculations yet or how much it will affect Trade deadline acquisitions or FA acquisitions. While we may have room this season, we generally like these to be players with more than pure rental value. Sometimes it is the player with some control and sometimes it is a less marquis player who is part of the package. It's been a while, but I seem to recall long term contract AAVs at least at some point included only the first 4 or 5 years in their AAV instead of the entire contract. But that could have changed 15 years ago. And it might have been just assigning the signing bonus. Several contracts balloon, but the AAV may already have smoothed the impact. Plus there are several player who will get significant awards in arbitration.
Wouldn't it still be an upgrade to cut Castro and replace him with a real bat? I am a little surprised that this type of move, no one talks about. We keep Maldy and upgrade at C. Seems so obvious.
They may get a back up catcher, that is certainly possible but I don't see them getting a starting caliber catcher unless the prospect cost is surprisingly low. The back up catching market is always weak. I suspect short of a miracle with Contreras or an injury, Maldy is the catcher for the rest of this season because of his relationships and familiarity with the Astros. I think that we could see a pen arm but only at a low cost.
Timing is key. It's too early for deadline deals and deals being made early or more match need and surplus deals which usually involve replacement level players. I suspect they are hoping to see progress with Korey Lee cutting down his SC to BB ratio as well as ticking off time before the service time clock is no longer an issue. Outfield help from Leon and Pitching from Brown to a lesser extent also involve starting the service clock. That will be weighed to determine call-ups for injuries. We are much more likely to call up a 26 YO than a 23 YO for a temporary situation.
Is the AAV as simple as $115M divided by 6 ($19,166,667) beginning next season or is it more complex? Or has AAV replaced more complex Competitive Balance Salary calculations? I'm asking because we are being charged for parts of Greinke's Salary this year and a simple averaging would not appear this season on our CBT if this was a simple calculation, even thought the payment due covers deferred compensation for previous years.
It can be simple, but often it is manipulated into something not so simple. 2022 would not have Greinke $ if it was that simple. It is deferred money which would have been charged against playing years if it were that simple. You really have to see the Contract and any supplemental agreements to make a decent guess on how it will be calculated after disagreements are resolved. Reporter's briefs of the Contract really aren't that helpful for anything other than theoretical maximums and minimums without the method of calculation.
It is pretty simple. I questioned whether the signing bonus would be included in the AAV but it is. Only meaningful difference with the new CBA is that if a player is traded his AAV is recalculated based on $/yrs remaining, so backloaded contracts become harder to trade.
I think that they should keep NL and AL but eliminate all divisions. Expand Portland in the AL and Montreal in the NL Play 6 games against the other 15 teams in your league and 4 against each of the 16 in the other ( 154 g season) Top 6 in each league makes the playoffs
