We're now about 1/6th of the way through the season and the teams are separating. Contenders: 1. NYY 24-8 2. HOU 22-11 3. LAA 22-12 4. NYM 22-12 5. LAD 20-11 6. MIL 21-12 7. SD 21-12 8. SF 20-12 9. TB 20-13 10. MIN 19-14 In the hunt: 11. ARI 18-15 12. STL 17-15 13. TOR 17-16 14. COL 16-16 15. PHI 16-17 16. CWS 15-16 17. CLE 15-16 18. ATL 15-18 19. SEA 15-18 20. MIA14-18 Wait till next Year 21. BAL 14-19 22. TEX 13-18 23. OAK 14-20 24. PIT 13-19 25. BOS 12-20 26. KC 11-19 27. CHC 11-20 28. WAS 11-23 29. DET 10-23 30. CIN 9-24
Sox knew he was going to hang that slider...must have been wearing a buzzer. It's the only explanation that makes sense.
MIN might win their division but they are perennial playoff losers and don’t have the arms to be a WS threat. ATL CWS and TOR do have the talent to make a deep run.
While a disappointing day, there were at least some bright spots. Our long term needs in the outfield and catcher appear to have promising candidates in AAA. Gurriel, Tucker and Siri had multi hit games. No pressure today to break the 12 game win streak record.
I think we have a great future. I really hope they get extensions done for Tucker and Alvarez. The only player I would consider blowing our money wad and minor league depth on outside the organization is Soto. Lee is already a good defensive catcher and can’t help but be a better hitter than Maldi. I’m higher than most on Siri and if he and Leon can get their plate discipline under control, watch out. Tucker, McCormick, Myers, Siri, Leon looks to me to be a really deep young outfield. 1B seems to me to be the only hole in the near future, but maybe JJ Mat will step up or one of our outfielders can convert. Pena, Tucker, Alvarez, Leon, Myers look to me to be a really solid core to build around, with Siri, McCormick, JJ Mat, Lee somewhat wildcards but look to be at worst solid MLB bench players.
Anybody heard anything on how long teams will wait before "super two avoiding" debuts under the new CBA? I know it's later, but I'm not sure how much later.
Since SOTO was first mentioned, he has grown on me. But I'm not ready to pay the player cost frequently mentioned and give him a Tatis Contract.
Yeah, I would only consider it based on what we have to give up. The money consideration is tough too, because it might keep you from signing both Tucker and Alvarez.
I think that's pretty solidly overrating what Korey Lee can bring to the table in the near term and being generous about his upside. On defense, Lee has always been good on def for his level (e.g. college, low minors) but his ultimate defensive projection is solid/average. Fangraphs has his current/future defense grade at 40/50, i.e. would be below average at the major league level at present and projects to be average. Meanwhile, from what I interpret about the Astros' usage of Maldy, they must have a 60+ grade on his defensive tools and game calling. Lee's offensive skills aren't projected to be great either. 30/35 (current/future) grades on his bat and (30/45) on game power. So right now he'd be really bad offensively at the major league level. Maybe not Maldy bad, but definitely not a panacea for our catcher hitting problems. (In case you're wondering, a 50 grade tool is considered a major league average tool/pitch). The list of toolsy players with plate discipline problems is super long. The list of toolsy players with plate discipline problems who got them under control is way way smaller. I think Siri is what he is at his age/experience level: a defensive leaning 4th outfielder. Pedro Leon gets more benefit of the doubt because he's younger and had limited reps in pro baseball, but his current 30% K rate in AAA ain't gonna fly either. The only toolsy guy i can think of who dramatically changed his plate discipline and became a star is George Springer. I'm sure there are other examples, but it's just not commonly done.
Two tears of arbitration so it's a long rental that fits the 2024 window. But you can't give up your present and future for any player. I've noticed max value contracts are hazardous to the player's health.
Thanks for the information. This is about the first time I’ve heard that Lee is not a good defensive player. Still doesn’t cloud my optimism for the future. We’ve had no hitting from the catcher position throughout our mini-dynasty. I have confidence that if Lee or Diaz is not the answer the organization will find a suitable replacement. I think you are being way too pessimistic on Leon and a little pessimistic on Siri. Neither Gurriel or Altuve had great plate discipline and they’ve worked out ok. Tucker struck out a bunch when he first came up as well. I would venture to guess that there are tons of examples of minor leaguers with high SO rates that found a way to have really good careers in the majors.
If Lee ends up being a solid average defensive catcher in the bigs, that's still a huge win. There's not a lot of those around. It will put some more pressure on his bat though. His 65 WRC+ in AAA ain't gonna cut it. Like I said, the number of guys who ran 30%+ k rates in the upper minors and ultimately became stars isn't that big. It happens but its not common. Leon is a top 100 prospects and not by accident. His tools are loud. Even with a high 20's/low 30's K rate in the bigs, that might still be a 3-4 WAR player. He improves his contact to the low 20's/high teens K rates, we're talking all-star. Big difference with Tucker in my opinion. He never had a K rate above 21.6% in the minors, so it was perfectly reasonable to assume the K rate bump in his early career was just an adjustment phase. ???? Gurriel and Altuve have some of the best plate discipline in the league. Gurriel was the freaking batting champion last year and prior to this year never ran a K rate over 11.7%. Altuve is multi-time batting champion and has never run a K rate above 20%.
Starling Marte's AB with 2nd/3rd and 1 out was Goodrum-level pathetic Always nice when the Mets lose, but these days I'm always happy when the Mariners do too.
