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The 2005-2010 Drafts: Beyond Bad

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by BrooksBall, Aug 21, 2012.

  1. BrooksBall

    BrooksBall Contributing Member

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    http://www.letsgotribe.com/2012/8/20/3253495/the-drafts-2005-2010-how-bad-was-it

    I was reading the post above about the Indians' 2005-10 drafts (my other team... life is grand! :rolleyes:) and came across a reference to the Astros (about halfway through the analysis). Everybody knows we drafted pitifully during this period and we've seen some numbers here and there to support that obvious fact, but this guy did his own unique research and dug a little deeper than what most of us have probably seen. Again, the piece is completely geared toward the Indians so there is no detailed analysis pertaining to the Astros beyond that horrifying negative WAR value (the only team in all of baseball in the red during that span to date).

    That said, I am very interested in acquiring that detail, as well as extending it back to the 1993 season, Drayton's first as owner, in order to get a full picture of how the farm system fared under his watch. I am posting this now because I don't know if and when I'll have time to do the grunt work to put together such analysis so I figured we could at least start a discussion about it in the meantime and that maybe others would join in on the effort, or provide similar already existing numbers for that period.

    At a minimum, it's just a discussion point. Maybe you see flaws in this guy's analysis, beyond what he acknowledges himself in the post. I've seen a number of his comments in the past and he's pretty sharp and articulate for what it's worth but it seems like he did this on his own so there could be gaps and shortcomings that he overlooked.

    Anyhow, that's about it. If and when I get time to do the number-crunching, I'll post my findings. If any of you are interested enough to do some research, please share your results.

    Also, one important point to consider if and when we ever have all this data is that McLane inherited a farm system much like he inherited Biggio and Bagwell entering their primes. What to look for is the trend over his 18 years or so as owner. It'd be even better to also know stuff like investment dollars in scouting, development and advanced technologies relative to the rest of the league over that period but I doubt that information could ever be found. I'm sure it would be really telling if it could be though.
     
  2. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Guys who made it to the bigs that we drafted and signed (though I tried to mention guys that we failed to sign, but had reasonable big league careers)

    1993: Billy Wagner, Bryant Nelson (25 games, none all with Boston in 2002)
    1994: Ramon Castro, Scott Elarton, Russ Johnson, Oscar Robles, Tony Mounce, John Halama, Julio Lugo
    1995: Tony McKnight, Brian Sikorski, Barry Wesson, Derek Wallace, Aaron Miles, Jeriome Robertson, Tim Hamulack
    1996: Mark J. Johnson, Brian Dallimore, Wade Miller, Roy Oswalt, Tom Sherean
    1997: Lance Berkman, Tim Redding, Jason Alfaro
    1998: Brad Lidge, Dave Matranga, John Buck, Morgan Ensberg, Keith Ginter, Colin Porter
    1999: Mike Gallo, Jason Lane, Chris Sampson, Gregg Dobbs
    2000: Chad Qualls, Cory Doyne, Eric Bruntlett, Todd Self, Mike Burns, (Bourn drafted, but not signed)
    2001: Chris Burke, Kirk Sarloos, Phillip Barzilla, Charlton Jimerson, Brooks Conrad, DJ Houlton, Matt Albers, (Lance Cormier not signed)
    2002: Mitch Talbot, Mark Mclemore
    2003: Jason Hirsh, Josh Anderson, Jimmy Barthmaier, Edwin Maysonet, Mark Saccammano, (Drew Stubbs not signed)
    2004: Hunter Pence, Ben Zobrist, Troy Patton, Chad Reineke, Drew Sutton, J.R. Towles
    2005: Brian Bogusevic, Tommy Manzella, Brandon Barnes
    2006: Chris Johnson, Bud Norris
    2007: Only one guy we drafted has made the majors, and he didn't sign (Robbie Weinhardt). Only 6 are even still in the minors.
    2008: Jason Castro, Jordan Lyles, J.B. Shuck
    2009: Dallas Kuechel, JD Martinez
     
    1 person likes this.
  3. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Using Baseball Reference WAR:

    1993 WAR: 26.9 (15.7 with HOU)
    1994 WAR: 21.5 (4.9 with HOU)
    1995 WAR: -2.7 (0.0 with HOU)
    1996 WAR: 62.5 (57.1 with HOU)
    1997 WAR: 48.7 (45.1 with HOU)
    1998 WAR: 25.3 (19.6 with HOU)
    1999 WAR: 0.8 (3.5 with HOU)
    2000 WAR: 2.5 (5.8 with HOU)
    2001 WAR: -0.4 (-1.8 with HOU)
    2002 WAR: -0.3 (0.4 with HOU)
    2003 WAR: 0.2 (-0.2 with HOU)
    2004 WAR: 43.6 (15.1 with HOU) Great move trading Zobrist for Huff
    2005 WAR: 0.8 (0.8 with HOU)
    2006 WAR: -0.8 (-0.7 with HOU) CJ's terrible defense is the culprit
    2007 WAR: 0.0
    2008 WAR: -2.4 Yeah, Lyles has been terrible.
    2009 WAR: -0.4
     
    #3 juicystream, Aug 22, 2012
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2012
  4. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    FWIW, our top prospects when McLane got here were:

    Todd Jones
    Phil Nevin
    Brian Hunter
    Bobby Abreu
    Alvin Morman
    Jeff Juden
    Orlando Miller
    James Mouton
    Gary Mota
    Chris Hatcher

    Other guys in the system at the time include Carlos Guillen & Richard Hidalgo, who were still 16/17 at the time.
     
  5. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Interesting facts:
    Tim Pupura was director of player development from 1997-2004.

    During Hunsicker's tenure, he had 4 quality drafts, his first 3, and then his last. The 5 in between were brutal.

    Early results from Heck's drafts are terrible.
     
  6. RunninRaven

    RunninRaven Contributing Member

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    Wow. I had no idea that James Mouton was ever considered a top prospect. That's funny.
     
  7. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Contributing Member
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    I remember him having some power/speed potential.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=mouton001jam

    His year in '93 in AAA was really good, especially considering he skipped AA. 40 steals, 40 doubles, double digits in homers and triples as a middle infielder is certainly promising, though he was already 24.

    Part of the problem for him was that Biggio fellow blocking him at 2B. Light hitting corner outfielders just don't make it.

    I remember being really excited about Orlando Miller after he hit 2 homers in a game early on.
     
  8. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

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    PCL (AAA) MVP in his 3rd year of pro ball out of college. He was an awful, awful IF so they moved him to the OF. Terribly slow bat that couldn't hit big league pitching: see Fernando/JD Martinez, Dominguez, Petagine, Lane, Ginter, , etc....
     
  9. htownbball

    htownbball Member

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    1999- Mike Rosamond*
    2000- Robert Stiehl*
    2001- Chris Burke*
    2002- Derrick Grigsby*
    2003- Jason Hirsh
    2004- Hunter Pence
    2005- Brian Bogusevic, Eli Iorg*
    2006- Max Sapp*
    2007- Derek Dietrich
    2008- Jason Castro
    2009- Jio Mier, Jordan Lyles
    2010- Delino, Folty
    2011- George Springer
    2012- Carlos Correa

    If we would have had quality drafts from 1999-2002, we could have had some great teams when Roy, Andy, Roger, Biggio, Baggy, and Lidge were around. Instead, 1 made it to the majors and all are out of baseball now. Granted, Chris Burke showed alot of promise, just never was able to produce consistently.
     
  10. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    Yuck list but we did have great times during that time frame anyway. There weren't too many spots that didn't have a solid or better player. The odds that a draftee would have gotten SS or #4 starter and really made a difference were slim.
     
  11. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    I blame Chris Burke for why Drayton never spent money in the draft again. He was our one over slot guy, and was the biggest bonus he handed out until DDJ (who go about the same).

    Of course, if Carlos Hernandez and Wade Miller had stayed healthy, we'd have been a lot better as well.
     
  12. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    I blame Drayton for why Drayton never spent money in the draft again.
     
  13. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

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    This is totally incorrect. You can blame Chris Burke for lots of things, but that's not one of them.
     
  14. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    I think Drayton felt burnt by it. If Chris Burke was successful, you'd at least have an easier time convincing him to spend again.
     
  15. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Obviously Drayton is at fault. He did it for Chris Burke, and then never again.
     
  16. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Troy Patton???
     
  17. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Eh, he was still a top prospect back then.
     
  18. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Who, Burke? Not really.

    Also, he paid for Castro and DD jr. If he really felt burned by Burke he wouldn't have wanted to have any high draft picks.
     

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