Because he is one of Texas 5 best players, and if you take him out that is one major less worry for a defense even if he isn't getting his shot off. He did average about 15 versus Kansas, who posed similar problems. I mostly agree. I would add Atchley and James. I thought only Mason of the starters seemed to play composed and mostly within himself. Umn no, I say 2 or 3 times out of 10. They needed a great game by Augustine, efficient, smart and controlling tempo. Texas is a notch below Memphis, Kansas, UNC and UCLA, 1-2 versus Kansas/Memphis without playing on those teams home court is about right. On the bright side if Augustine comes back you could be looking at the preseason #1 because I expect those four #1 seeds to lose lots of people.
Definitely disappointing to see my Horns go home but this was a pretty good run none the less. Memphis is an unbelievably talented team that really showed up for this one, if they play like they did yesterday, they could very easily win it all. Not sure if DJ will stay, chances are pretty good in that scouts will tell him what he wants to hear and he'll leave. But if he were to come back, I think you could really make the case that UT could win it all. The one thing I think this team is missing is that athletic swingman that can pose matchup problems, I like Abrams and Mason a lot and they both bring different things to the table. But because both are undersized, they can be shut down quite easily.
I predicted UNC over UCLA, and I am sticking to it--might be the only thing I got right That said there isn't a huge gap between any of the 4 and any could easily beat one another. Lets remember each has also been in close games--Lou was within 2 with 6 left versus UNC, UCLA versus A&M, Mem vs Miss St, Kan vs Davidson, etc. Just shows you with an off day they all are vulnearable to a good team--and they will be playing great teams. I do think UCLA will beat Memphis. Memphis will find their physical equal, but I think the experience and composure of Collison and Love (plays like a senior) + UCLA being more battled tested (this year and previous years) and FT% will make the difference. CDR is going to have to play fantastic in the half court for Memphis to win the grind it out game that UCLA will make it. Agreed. If Augustine comes back, probably the preseason #1. I assume Love + Collison, Hansborough (+ maybe Ellington or Lawson), CDR + Rose (Dorsey will be gone--he actually is one of those rare seniors who can play), Arthur + Rush (+ maybe Chalmers) are gone. Basically it depends on who leaves among the top 4. Even without Augstine, it looks like everyone else is back (I guess James is an outside shot to turn pro). Out fight Memphis for Tyreke Evans or Devin Ebanks, Texas could be top 5 without him. With Mason and Abrams (who can shoot and handle even if not a pure PGs), Texas could integrate lots of kinds of players to replace Augustine.
Great predicition! Of those three, I can only realistically see Lawson going pro. As I said in the other thread, I remember hearing about Tyler being a four year player. Ellington needs to come back and work on his game, so I hope he does so. Lawson is 50/50 - but UNC is getting 3 McDonalds All-Americans, including one PG. Losing Lawson would hurt, but if he's the only one that leaves, I can't see how they're not #1.
FYI Preseason rankings.... 1. North Carolina (29) 0-0 1,728 2. UCLA (24) 0-0 1,710 3. Memphis (18) 0-0 1,680 4. Kansas 0-0 1,568 5. Georgetown (1) 0-0 1,504 6. Louisville 0-0 1,380 7. Tennessee 0-0 1,371 8. Michigan State 0-0 1,296 9. Indiana 0-0 1,145 10. Washington State 0-0 1,103 11. Marquette 0-0 1,002 12. Oregon 0-0 918 13. Duke 0-0 868 14. Gonzaga 0-0 711 15. Texas 0-0 638 The Longhorns did great with a very young team. Yes they played a bad game vs Memphis, but NOBODY excepted a probable #5 rank finish and share of the Big 12.
If Hansborough or Love come back those teams are 1-2 even if Lawson and Collison go. Personally I don't see Augustine or Lawson as high as other PG prospects. I would rate the following higher as pro prospects right now: -Collison (longer arms, just as athletic, better shooter) -Rose (I don't think the player the others are yet, but he has the NBA body) -Bayless (sorta in between the above two, great athlete, body and great shooter/scorer--but has leadership/running a team work to do) IMO both Augustine and Lawson are great college field generals (the former better and with more pro potential), but both have to work on their shooting skill sets and shot selection. Augustine (but not Lawson) is a sure fire 1st round pick, but I'd say borderline lottery. I might put Chalmers ahead of Lawson too. There might be others I haven't seed.
When you mention close games, you can't compare Louisville with A&M, Davidson or Miss St. IMO, Louisville would have demolished those teams just like they did Tennessee. In fact, I think Louisville is better than both Kansas and UCLA. It's a shame they had UNC in their region, but oh well. I can't see how anyone could logically choose Kansas to beat UNC. Roy Williams coaching against Kansas in the Final Four is delicious irony and a good story. UCLA/Memphis is such a stylistic contrast that anything could happen and I disagree that UCLA is a physical equal with Memphis. To offset that, they are more disciplined and play smarter. Of the four teams left, UCLA has impressed me the least.
Really? I'd have a hard time seeing Lawson drop out of the first round. I know his size will hurt him, but speed kills. He's like a Felton-lite to me. I agree that at this point DJ is probably better (Don't watch enough of either two teams, honestly), but I would have to say Lawson is a lock for the first round, even if he comes out this year.
Texas has been as good as Lou, and Memphis got rolling and Texas got out of whack. Memphis looked the most vulnerable the 1st weekend, only to be most impressive the 2nd--taking apart two pretty decent teams. Ups and downs are natural and certainly any of the 4 are capable of beating one another on a good day--this is as evenly matched 4 teams as I remember and there isn't a Florida out there who has got everything (size, depth, defense, half court offensive excellence, pool of scorers/shooters, etc.). If I were ranking I would say UNC, UCLA, Memphis and Kansas. This site has UNC -3 and Memphis a 1 point favorite over UCLA, so they flipped one form me, I disagree but oh well. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/20...a_tourney/2008/03/31/vegas.odds.ap/index.html What I like about UCLA is their combination of the best 2 great half court players in the turney (except maybe UNC--but I think Collison is significantly better than UNC's #2) + defense/physicality. This is a better version of a team that only got stopped by Florida in the finals and final 4 the previous two years--they may not look pretty, but they are a very tough knock out. Like I said I think CDR is going to have to play with great efficiency in the half court for Memphis to win--he is capable, but a tall order. I think UCLA being more battled tested/better comp all year, half court oriented, + better FT%, will carry them through. UCLA does have to not get that doubel digit deficit early though--if Memphis gets you rattled they can double that lead in a heartbeat. I like UNC versus UCLA better because I think UNC can match them in half court execution + do some oppertune running. I'll make a case for Kansas, they are by a good margin the best 3 point shooting team left and they are #1 is scoring differential, and #1 in % differential (#3 in offensive % and #3 in defensive %--both higher than UNC). They also are deeper than UNC. I'll stick pick UNC because I think they are better in their starting 5 and star players, but 3 points is about right and 3 points ain't much of spread.
I've been really impressed with Mason the last 10 games or so. The Royal Ivey comparisons are really starting to show. On the bright side, if James and Augustin stick around, this is an Elite 8 team only graduating two players -- a seldom used spot up shooter and a walk on designated fouler (Lewis and Mooney). Right now, we've only got one player coming in and it's another smallish (6-2) combo guard J'Covan Brown (Rivals 4*), though we are in the running for a few more players including 2 5*'s. We're in the mix for a ton of 2009 is supposed to be a big year for us recruit wise (Rivals #1 overall Renardo Sidney has already come in for a visit), and we have already got a commit from a likely 5* in 2010 (Tristan Thompson). Desert Scar -- Don't forget the guy who was supposed to be Augustin's backup this year, Dogus Balbay. He's supposed to be a pretty tenacious player, and high octane point guard. Our problem this year had a lot to do with inside play. Between Pittman, Johnson, a healthy Matt Hill, and Wangmene, there's a lot of raw talent that could turn into something. If we get a couple of hits on those guys along with the return of Augustin and James, it could be a good year.
Well, a better defense for KU is a good start. Also, they have the 2nd best offense to UNC's #1 offense, so that's not a lopsided matchup at all. I have KU beating UNC and UCLA beating KU for the title. (That was my pick in my bracket, and I'm sticking to it.)
Something that needs to be remembered when talking about KU is they played only one ranked team this season (Texas - who they split with). Their non-conf schedule was a joke and they played some good-but-not-great teams in the B12, but nothing compared to the other top teams. Even during their tourney run, they squeaked by Davidson, but the best-seed that they faced was a #8 seed.
