This is not ESPN's predicition. It is the prediction of the website Football Outsiders. There is a pretty thorough write-up and analysis of why they think the Texans will finish with 6 wins in the almanac. Thumbnail sketch highlights are as follows: 1. In 10,000 seasons played on their computer, Schaub misses an average of 4 games. 2. The Texans face the hardest schedule in the last 25 years of the NFL. 3. Cushing is missing 4 games.
As Matt said, that's not the opinion of ESPN - it's an statistics-only thing based on advanced metrics from Football Outsiders. Everyone loves heavy statistics these days, but people forget that football is a much more complex game to quantify than baseball or basketball. For reference, Football Outsiders is the same service that said Fred Bennett was one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL after his rookie season. The other thing - schedule evaluations done before the season are inherently flawed. I'd love to see a correlation, if one exists, for how strong Football Outsiders' projected schedules are before the season to how they eventually turn out. I really don't see the Texans' schedule being historically tough. People look at it as brutal because of the NFC East and San Diego/Baltimore in non-division AFC games, but I don't see it. Dallas is going to have severe OL issues, Philadelphia is breaking in a new QB, the Giants were absolutely awful to end 2009, and San Diego is aging all over the place. I'm not saying any of these teams are going to be horrible, but the NFL is full of top-to-bottom change every season and I'm not convinced of how strong or weak a schedule will be simply because of how things went in 2009.
The Texans face the hardest schedule in the last 25 years of the NFL. Is that true?! A healthy Schaub should ensure at least a 8-8 season. We had some terrible last second f ups last year with the FG shanks, goal line fumbles, and Chris Brown. The only game we were really just outplayed was the opener. We also never had a consistent running game. This year with a full season of Foster, Daniels, KJax, and Pollard I like our chances. Just wish we had a full year of Cush!!
I wonder how many computers predicted the Bungals would win the AFC North or the Jets to make the AFC title game how about the Saints winning the Super Bowl??? Predictions are fun and all but half the time are meaningless.
The BCS of the NFL. It is going to be tough no doubt, but it is really playoffs or bust. If the Texans win that few games, it will be mayhem in River City.
I'd be disappointed if this team did anything less than 10-6, barring a major injury. Realistically, if we play well in our division, and stay motivated, this team should be anywhere from 10 to 13 wins. And that's not a joke.
Projecting football seasons using simulations, IMO, is patently impossible. I guess you have to start from somewhere, but at this point, I'd think such projections are as accurate as hurricane projections. This is especially true for the whole "Strength of Schedule" concept, as most teams' performances fluctuate widely from year to year. That said, I don't think 6-10 is out of the question. 16 games is such a small sample size fluctuations that just about any non-extreme prediction has a good chance of coming true. 10-6 and 6-10 could be a very thin line depending on how lucky you are.
