I think Pitt has a shot at Baltimore. Not sure about Oakland... maybe need a miracle in that game. I think KC sucks... there's no way they can beat Denver. Oakland has a better shot at Baltimore than KC does at Denver.
Let's see, if you put a snowball in an oven, what are the chances that it doesn't melt? Better than the Texans going to the playoffs.
Chances aren't as bad as long as we win out obviously. The Broncos losing helps us a lot. Just gives us more outs. Next week is huge. Hopefully the Pats, Chargers, Steelers, & Eagles all take care of business. That would knock out the Titans & Jags. We will hopefully knock out the Dolphins. The Jets will lose against either the Colts or Bengals so I have them as out. If this all happens next week and it's a big if but certainly possible, then we have 2 outs in the last week. It'll come down to the Ravens or Broncos losing in week 17. This isn't likely but anything can happen. It seems likely that the Pats will have nothing to play for in week 17, if they win next week? Is this a correct assessment?
Looking at things from a realistic standpoint the Texans best shot will be to win 2 and Denver lose 2 There are multiple scenarios but the one that has the best shot is all of the 7-7 teams losing and the Broncos losing at Phili and then the last week would come down to us winning and them losing at home vs KC (division game) which of course they will be favored in. In this senario SD wins at Ten eliminating Ten Texans beat Miami eliminating Mia NE beats Jac eliminating Jac Ind beats NYJ eliminating NYJ Balt beats Pitt eliminating Pitt (if Pitt finished 9-7 they WILL have tie-breaker) Denver loses at Phili Ind SD Cinci NE wildcard Balt 9-6 Denver 8-7 Houston 8-7 Top 5 spots are filled Denver beats KC in week 17 they are in Texans need to beat NE and then have Denver lose
Damn I misinterpreted an earlier post bc I thought we owned the tiebreaker regardless. I guess it wouldn't be too far fetched for the Steelers to win next week and then lose to the Dolphins in week 17 but then we would be hoping for 2 teams to lose out of Den, Pitt, & Balt..
No, they will not. http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures Go to step one. If the Titans are 9-7 as well, we're screwed - but we already know that. They have to lose to San Diego. Step two is irrelevant since they didn't play. For step three - if the Texans and Steelers win out (only way this is relevant), both will have six AFC losses. Onto next step. Texans and Steelers' common opponents will be Tennessee, Cincinnati, Oakland and Miami. The Texans would be 4-1 in those games; the Steelers 2-3. There is no scenario on the planet, if Houston and Pittsburgh are both 9-7, in which Pitt holds the tiebreaker, unless Tennessee is 9-7 as well (and in that case we're screwed regardless). Stop spreading the myth.
So. Who do we root for the rest of the way? Any takers who can put it in simple English for us schlubs?
Root for the Texans to win out, obviously. Root for these teams to all lose next week (and I think they will): Tennessee (they play SD) Miami (they play us...in an elimination game) Jacksonville (they play NE) Jets (they play the Colts) You actually want to root for Pittsburgh to beat the Ravens, seeing as how Pittsburgh has no leverage if we win out. And you basically have to pray and hope like hell that the Broncos and/or Ravens lose out. This is the most unlikely scenario. If, by some divine miracle, they both lose out, and we win out, we are almost essentially guaranteed a spot (assuming all those teams that I said need to lose next week actually lose).
No the Broncos and the Ravens need to win for us to be toast. If either of them lose the next 2, then we still have a shot.
Correct - I think. If Week 16 goes like this: Texans over Dolphins Eagles over Broncos Chargers over Titans Patriots over Jaguars Colts over Jets Steelers over Ravens then we're setting up for the following in Week 17: Texans over Patriots AND Chiefs over Broncos OR Raiders over Ravens
What if Houston, Pitt, and Denver are all 9-7, with Denver having lost to Oakland? All would be 6-6 in the AFC. In that scenario, would it not go down to the next tiebreaker (strength of victory), since you wouldn't have 4 common opponents between all 3 teams?
If the Ravens were 8-8 in that scenario, we'd definitely have a spot because we own the tiebreaker over Pitt. If the Ravens were 9-7, I think they and Denver get in.
Tried to run this scenario here I gave Denver a loss to Philly and a win over KC along with Pittsburgh winning two in a row (Baltimore and Miami) AND Baltimore losing to their final two (Pittsburgh and Oakland). As you can see, with Houston, Denver, and Pittsburgh all at 9-7, Denver gets the fifth seed, and Houston gets the sixth.
