actually, i think anticipating someone will bust before they've even been drafted would qualify as "early"... everyone is so worried about drafting a QB because of all the first round busts, but here's what no one seems capable of grasping: the #1 overall picks are rarely busts; the busts are almost universally players like dan mcgwire, andre ware, todd marinovich, tommy maddox -- guys that teams reach for with later first round picks. they're the ones giving first round QB's a bad name. since 1970, 11 QB's have been taken #1 overall: bradshaw (4 SB's), plunkett (1 SB), bartkowski, elway (2 SB's, 5 SBA), testaverde, aikman (3 SB's), george, bledsoe (1 SBA, 2 AFC), manning, couch and vick. that's a pretty stellar run. of that group, george is the only certifiable bust and most thought he was a reach at #1, anyway. again, when you have the opportunity to draft a franchise QB, you take it; you do not hesitate. i can't for the life of me figure out why carr is so maligned; check his numbers -- they're wonderful. read what players, scouts and/or coaches have said about him: it's always stellar. the texans won't have to worry about what QB's are available in 2003; they'll have their franchise signal caller already in place.
Ouch! I should have put "my" fear instead of "the" fear to show that I was expressing my opinion and not the team's, but we fans do that sometimes and it should be taken for what its worth. Sorry for the grammatical mistake. I was trying expressing the fact that QBs that fit the criteria to be a franchise QB have been known to bust. I then tried to express that I hadn't seen him play so others could have a point of reference to my knowledge of Carr and other would know that I meant no disrespect for his abilities. If Carr is a special player, others would know my argument was worthless since it was based on the assumption that he's not the exception. QBs are always hyped to be the exception. Its never wise to think any QB is a no brainer till they post a 3000 yd season in the NFL. If someone went to Fresno State, I'd be more apt to listen to his advantages and disadvantages. The average QB selected number one isn't worth Trotter and a second rd pick because the average QB taken number one isn't an elite QB. If you hated it, you wouldn't have posted it in the manner you did. You weren't being self-righteous because you didn't take the moral high ground, but instead attempted to belittle me. In Ric's world, I guess first rd QBs never bust like Heath Shuler who was drafted by Washington. Its lucky the Texans have no one from that staff.
Ottomaton: I agree and disagree (isn't it always fun hearing that ? ). I do agree that Trotter is worth a 2nd round pick. And that most 2nd rounders never come close to his current play. However, people value the "unknown" for a reason. It's because while we know that a 'proven veteran' is more than most 2nd round picks turn out to be... there's always a chance at nabbing a Kurt Warner. Realistically speaking, going by your philosophy, we'd trade all of our picks for league-average veterans after about the middle of the first round. After all, most picks after that point never end up being league-average veterans. But would you do that? No. Because the unknown does have potential value. Because you could always nab a star in the 4th round, like Terrell Davis. Because you don't want to b e 8-8 forever.
i'm not concerned about your grammar -- i'm concerned you'd label a QB you've never seen play a "risk." what could that possibly be based on? i never said his eventual NFL success was a no-brainer, i said drafting him was a no-brainer; treeeeee-mendous difference. here's an interview with a fresno state beat writer we did: http://www.houstonprofootball.com/draft/bee.html some select quotes: "I'm not an NFL scout, so this is a hard question to answer. I do believe, however, that once NFL people get to spend more time with Dave, poke him with their stethoscopes, test his football acumen and drill him on the practice field, his stock will skyrocket. Frankly, I have yet to meet anyone who hasn't come away thinking the guy is an absolute stud." "The first time I saw Carr practice (spring 1999), I was convinced the guy could be a first-rounder. His talent is that obvious." "Carr has one of the strongest and most accurate arms you'll ever see. He also has great touch on timing routes. He really throws a beautiful ball. He is also extremely strong, tough, durable -- and more mobile than people realize. He is a mature 22-year-old with a beautiful wife and son." dude... the last 11 #1 overall QB's have won a combined 10 super bowls and made 14 total appearences, and included among those 11 are still relative newcomers manning, couch and vick. #1 overall QB's are elite QBs; history supports that. it's when you get into the first round that the busts start to surface. actually, in ric's world, he made a clear and definitive distinction between first round picks and number one overall picks. guys like shuler bust because desperate teams make desperate moves; happens all the time. carr is not a desperate move. the texans have had two years to watch this guy; they have no doubt he's a legitimate franchise QB and while casserly was indeed the one who pulled the trigger on shuler -- he's not making this decision alone. he has on his side chris palmer and the nfl's best paid and most experienced scouting staff. i initially thought carr might be a reach at #1, but i've read a lot about him and i've spoken to quite a few people whom i trust, and i no longer have any apprehension whatsoever. he's a no-brainer.
And now back to the original subject of this thread. Ric, Would you trade our mid second rounder & possibly another late round pick for Trotter, if that offer was acceptable to the Eagles? Is that too much, too little, or just right? What would be a fair contract for him?
i don't think philly would accept that deal, but... assuming they did -- no. to give up two choices in a deep draft for a guy who a) isn't appreciably better than the MLB you already have and b) you then have to turnaround and resign to a new contract is too steep a price to pay, imo. i would assume trotter's looking for, at the very least, something jason gildon-like. gildon's deal was 5yr/$23M with a $6.5M signing bonus; roughly $6M/yr for the life of the contract. i think trotter's younger than gildon; debatable rather he's appreciably better, so that would seem a safe place to start.
Carr has never played in the NFL. I have no opinion on the man. All players without NFL experience are risks. BTW, I don't think its a good idea to trade the number one pick. There isn't a decent QB available with maybe the NE guy and he's probably out of the price range and more than decent.
Ric, you would know a heckuva lot more than I, and admittedly Carr looks like a stud, but are you tooting Carr's horn (no pun intended) because you are secretly resigned to the fact that we're gonna take him? Walking the company line maybe? FWIW, I think Eli Manning was the most impressive QB last year.
i initially had doubts... but i soon realized those doubts were cosmetic: he didn't play in a storied conference, he kind of snuck up on everybody, his competition was suspect, his numbers were great, but not off the chart great, he didn't have high profile comebacks and he had a tendency to do everything really well but minus the flash of a michael vick. in short, carr was no drew henson. but i've had the good fortune of meeting quite a few people over the last year, including a few scouts, and they all love david carr. and while scouts can certainly be wrong... they're far more reliable than the mel kiper crowd. carr has the size, he has the speed and he has the arm. even better, he's very grounded, very mature and extremely smart. i think he has the foundation necessary for success on the nfl level. so, no, it has nothing to do with resignation and i'm certainly not on the texans' payroll (though i would not object to them sending me money). check back over carr's numbers; i think it's hard to argue there was a better QB in football last year. manning had flashes of brilliance and is probably going to be a stud, if he's not already, but the problem is... he's not available this year; might not even be available next year.
I was for taking whichever QB graded out better because from what I have seen on the field both Carr and Harrington had superb leadership abilities along with athletic ability. It is obvious to the NFL honchos that Carr is the guy--so I am all for him. I think it is too huge of a risk to pass up a QB who might be the next Elway. Even if he is only as good as Aikman, Peyton or Coach, those guys are still as valuable as the best players at other positions. Personally, I think Harrington will make a good QB as well. But it sounds like Harrington is more of a risky proposition. Carr is the man, got to take our shot.
Ric: Ah, but Eli played in the SEC . I'm now in favor of picking Carr. I had been against it based on three assumptions: 1. Manning has better physical tools than Carr and is coming from a much better conference. 2. The Texans, as an expansion team, should be the odds-on favorites to get the #1 pick next year as well. 3. Manning will come out after 3 years. I still think #1 is true, but with all of the great acquisitions, I've come to doubt #2. #3 seems likely, but not a certainty. But I really wouldn't pass up Carr unless all 3 of those were true. In any event, if we wind up with the #1 pick next year, and Manning is available and looks as good as he does right now... take him and trade Carr.
yeah, but so did heath shuler... and i'm not so sure manning does have better physical tools: they both have great arms -- if one's better, the other is still nfl-caliber. carr's faster; carr's stronger; eli's smarter but that doesn't mean carr's some mongoloid. i think eli's "sexier" -- not physically: he's a bigger name with a certified heritage playing in a storied conference... carr's some yahoo from fresno playing against angelo state barber college. but they're both great college quarterbacks and tremendous pro prospects, imo.
Eli's arm is plenty strong. It's all relative. Not everone has an Elway type arm. Actually, who does? Smarter counts alot for me. BTW, Shuler had GREAT physical tools. A scrambler with a cannon (not Elwayesque, but still strong.) He just didn't pan out.
i agree. scouts still marvel at ryan leaf's physical skills, but, unfortunately, he was dumber than a stack of bricks and the chargers didn't bother to do their homework.
Why did Heath Shuler not pan out? I hope Casserly learned a lot from that mis-judgement if he is going to take Carr.
