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[Texans Draft Position] Simplified Week 17 Scenarios

Discussion in 'Houston Texans' started by today, Dec 27, 2005.

  1. today

    today Contributing Member

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    Since Baltimore beat Minnesota Sunday night, it is now statistically impossible for Houston to overtake or tie New Orleans for the weakest SOS. So if we beat SF, the best we can hope for is #2. The Texans/49ers game is a late game, so I will post an update after the noon games on Sunday.

    Assumptions made:
    <li>Hou beats SF</li>
    <li>Buf beats NYJ</li>
    <li>Sea beats GB</li>
    <li>no week 17 games will end in a tie</li>

    Here are the numbers and relevant games for week 17:
    (Note: I used some math in order to simplify these numbers and took into account some of the week 17 games ahead of time, so for those of you who like the details, they are at the bottom)

    New York Jets: 134 opponent wins (lowest opponent win total will have the weakest SOS)
    <li>Oak beats NYG (Sat) = +1 (this means that you would add 1 to 134)</li>
    <li>KC beats Cin (noon) = +1</li>
    <li>Bal beats Cle (noon) = +1</li>
    <li>Jax beats Ten (late) = +1</li>

    Houston Texans: 134 opponent wins
    <li>Pit beats Det (noon) = +1</li>
    <li>Sea beats GB (noon) = +1</li>
    <li>Ind beats Ari (noon) = +1 *</li>
    <li>Stl beats Dal (nite) = +1</li>
    *Explanation: Indy and Arizona are both on our opponent list for this year, but we play Indy twice and Arizona only once. If Ari wins, we get 1 win added, but if Indy wins, we get 2 wins added to our total. In order to simplify this, I have already added in the 1 win (included in the 134 opponent wins), and we just add 1 more win if Indy is victorious.

    Green Bay Packers: 136 opponent wins
    <li>Cin beats KC (noon) = +1</li>
    <li>Det beats Pit (noon) = +1 *</li>
    <li>Phi beats Was (late) = +1</li>
    *Explanation: Same situation as Indy/Arizona for the Texans

    San Francisco 49ers: 136 opponent wins
    <li>NYG beats Oak (Sat) = +1</li>
    <li>Sea beats GB (noon) = +2</li>
    <li>TB beats NO (noon) = +1</li>
    <li>Ari beats Ind (noon) = +1 *</li>
    <li>Chi beats Min (late) = +1</li>
    <li>Stl beats Dal (nite) = +1 *</li>
    *Explanation: Same situation as Indy/Arizona for the Texans


    What happens if we have the same SOS as another team when the season is over?
    The language is not entirely clear (very bottom of the page here), but from what I can tell, if 2 teams within the same Conference are tied, it goes head-to-head record, then to conference record. Since the Texans have a worse Conference record than the Jets, we would win the tie-breaker and receive the better draft position. If we tie with a team(s) that are in the NFC, I believe it goes straight to a coin flip.



    Details
    On a team by team basis, there are week 17 games in which the outcome is inconsequential to the team's SOS. Just a quick example, the Texans have played both Cin and KC, so for the Texans SOS, it doesn't matter who wins that game this week, the Texans will get 1 win added to their total. With this in mind, I have already added these "guarenteed" wins into each team's win total. If you are doing the math on your own through week 16, please note that your numbers will not likely match up with my mine because I have already added in the results of these "guarenteed" week 17 games.

    Math: Since all games have been played this year (no canceled games) and assuming that there are no games that end in a tie this week, the lowest "opponent win total" is the exact same thing as the lowest SOS winning percentage. I kept track of the wins only because it's simpler and easier to follow for most people. After week 17 is over and assuming there were no tied games, you can use the formula that I have provided for each team to add up the total opponent wins for each team and divide it by 256 to find out the final SOS winning percentage.
     
  2. mateo

    mateo Contributing Member

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    How about we just lose?
    So much easier.

    However, nice research.
     
  3. Luckyazn

    Luckyazn Contributing Member

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    It would still be ok if we BEAT SAN FRAN and still end up with the #2 pick behind NO because I think NO would rather draft LEINART than BUSH because they already have DUECE.

    what senerio do we need to end up with the #2 pick? infront of the JETS if we beat SF?
     
  4. gunn

    gunn Contributing Member

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    We would likely still have to trade up to get Bush. What if NO trades picks with the Jets knowing they can still get Leinart at #3 because the Texans would have already re-signed Carr by that point? If the team wants Bush, their best bet is to lose.
     
  5. today

    today Contributing Member

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    Just use the formula below for us to finish in front of the Jets for the #2 pick (lower number of opponent wins is better). Keep in mind that we own the secondary tiebreaker with the Jets (Conference Record), so all we have to do is tie them in the SOS. The important games are below.

     
  6. today

    today Contributing Member

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    Here's the update after Saturday's two games, remember that the lowest opponent win total will have the weakest SOS:

    New York Jets: 134 opponent wins
    <li>KC beats Cin (noon) = +1</li>
    <li>Bal beats Cle (noon) = +1</li>
    <li>Jax beats Ten (late) = +1</li>

    Houston Texans: 134 opponent wins
    <li>Pit beats Det (noon) = +1</li>
    <li>Sea beats GB (noon) = +1</li>
    <li>Ind beats Ari (noon) = +1</li>
    <li>Stl beats Dal (nite) = +1</li>

    Green Bay Packers: 136 opponent wins
    <li>Cin beats KC (noon) = +1</li>
    <li>Det beats Pit (noon) = +1</li>
    <li>Phi beats Was (late) = +1</li>

    San Francisco 49ers: 137 opponent wins
    <li>Sea beats GB (noon) = +2</li>
    <li>TB beats NO (noon) = +1</li>
    <li>Ari beats Ind (noon) = +1</li>
    <li>Chi beats Min (late) = +1</li>
    <li>Stl beats Dal (nite) = +1 </li>
     
  7. rikesh316

    rikesh316 Member

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    GB will beat Seattle and Jets will beat Bills.
     
  8. Harrisment

    Harrisment Member

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    We really need the Saints to beat the Bucs, but I just dont see it happenin.
     
  9. Jebus

    Jebus Contributing Member

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    There's a graphic on the new york times site on this page (you may need bugmenot to see it without registering - in the multimedia box, click on 'NFL's race to the bottom') that pretty clearly shows that the only way the Texans can get the #1 pick is if they lose or if the Saints win. The Saints' strength of schedule is apparently too far below the Texans' for them to be caught. So it appears that these discussions about SOS are pointless- the calculation must be more complicated than what you're using. Maybe it includes strength of opponents' schedule or something.

    Maybe someone can post the graphic- it's pretty obvious. It actually says right on there "no other team can have a worse record- Saints get first pick". (in the event of a 5-way tie, obviously). Although I suppose that if all 5 teams don't end up tied, the SOS calculations will be a little different. Still, it looks pretty obvious from their graphic.

    Anyway, looks like it all hinges on the Texans losing, because I can't see the Saints beating the Bucs.
     
  10. today

    today Contributing Member

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    Did you even read the first paragraph of the original post? We're talking about the SOS tiebreaker used for the #2 pick should we beat SF and end up in a tie with these other teams. However, it is nice to get confirmation that my math is correct, thanks for the source.

     
    #10 today, Jan 1, 2006
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2006
  11. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    Well, the Saints are really trying today at least. We'll see if TB drives straight down the field and scores again.
     
  12. rikesh316

    rikesh316 Member

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    Jets winning 17-6 late in the 2nd quarter. Packers winning 13-7 late in the 2nd. Saints losing 14-10 late in the 2nd.
     
  13. rikesh316

    rikesh316 Member

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    Bills just scored a touchdown, Jets winning 17-13 now.
     
  14. today

    today Contributing Member

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    Bills 23-20 over the Jets, 0:36 left in the 3rd.

    1st and Goal for the Packers and Favre fumbles the darn ball. What a loser. Packers still up though, 20-14.
     
  15. today

    today Contributing Member

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    YES!!!!!!!!!!!!! Jets run the kickoff back for a TD... Jets 30-26!!!

    EDIT: Sacked on 4th down, Jets take over with 2:46 to go!!!
     
    #15 today, Jan 1, 2006
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2006
  16. today

    today Contributing Member

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    Green Bay wins!!!!

    But the Saints are going to lose.... 27-13
     
  17. Jebus

    Jebus Contributing Member

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    :eek: hah... sorry, I obviously didn't read it. I just assumed it was yet another discussion of the same stuff. My apologies, and good job.

    . . . and go Saints! They're moving the ball, 1st and 10 on their 46 yard line at the 2 minute warning, down by a touchdown.

    edit: crap.. stupid saints
     
  18. today

    today Contributing Member

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    Jets win!!!!
     
  19. today

    today Contributing Member

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    I've run the math: Since the Jets and Packers both won, we can do no worse than the #2 pick. SF cannot catch up to us in the SOS.

    So it's extremely simple at this point: We lose, we get #1. We win, we get #2.
     
  20. mateo

    mateo Contributing Member

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    Cool.

    Lets lose.
     

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