really? '04: 26.0 carries/game; 148.1 yds/game; 5.7 yds/carry; 1.15 TDs/game '06: 26.8 carries/game; 144.6 yds/game; 5.4 yds/carry; 1.71 TDs/game i don't know... those look nearly identical to me with an excellent sophomore season tossed in for good measure (20/100.7/5.1/1.27). and yes, he's been hurt; he also has fewer carries that most college backs. he's a no brainer at 8.
AP's stats have gotten slightly worse while the entire Oklahoma running attack starting at the line has gotten much better. Heck, Allen Patrick's game against my Cowboys might have been the best game by an Oklahoma running back this year. But more importantly, if you watched AP this year, you realize that he has definitely lost strength. He just doesn't punish the defense the way he did as a freshman.
every single word of this may very well be true; i don't watch oklahoma games... then, again - i also didn't go to OSU... IMO, it's hard to spin nearly identical #s as decidedly different. and even harder to take it so far as to say one year was worthy of a first round pick, and the other wasn't... brings your alma mater's influence into question... IMO.
'Tis true that I'm not a big OU fan. Even so, if I thought AP was the best possible pick at the #8 spot, I'd swallow my dislike. But don't think anyone would argue that he's been the best running back in the nation over the past two years. Even if you ignore games missed, there is no question that Marshawn Lynch has been better, by nearly every measure. Unless the Browns do something completely unexpected in the 1st round, no running backs will have been taken. Even if the Texans do pick an RB, which IMO isn't the biggest need, if they pick AP, they are saying his freshman season means more than his and Lynch's sophomore and junior seasons.
I just have to say I disagree....... In 2006: -A. P. had a 5.4 average (1012 yards) and a TD every 15 carries (12) -Patrick had a 4.5 average (761 yards) and a TD every 42 carries (4) In 2005: -A. Peterson had a 5.0 average (1108 yards) and a TD every 15 carries (14) -Kejuan Jones had a 3.3 average (280 yards) and a TD every 21 carries (4) In 2004: -A. Peterson had a 5.7 average (1925 yards) and a TD every 22 carries. (15) -Kejuan Jones had a 4.0 average (513 yards) and a TD every 25 carries (5) In 2003: -AP was in high school while Kejuan Jones ran for almost 1000 (925) yards and set the OU record for a freshman with 14 touchdowns; and had 4.1 average and a TD every 19 carries. In short: 1) AP is SO much more productive than Patrick, as well as Kejuan Jones, who himself was a good college football player. 2) AP has also been consistent, never below a 5YPC average even when teams have lined up to stop him, OU's oline has been struggling, and couldn't pass to mix things up. 3) The AP of 2006 when healthy sure looks the same--both in my subjective view when I watch him play and pretty much statistically--as the one who ran for the almost 2000 yards 6YPC in 2004 (when he had NFL lineman and a great passing attack so you could not key on him). Yes, durability/health is an issue, but is impact when in the game is not an issue, the former issue is why AP will be a top 10 pick instead of a top 3 pick.
I have watched both guys. I am confident Lynch will be a good NFL back, he is well rounded in phases and has explosiveness. But IMO the best of Lynch has never been as dominant and impressive as the best of Peterson--this year, last year or the year before. I have seen Lynch been taking out of more games. Lynch hasn't been injury free himself either. I could change my tune with workout information (40, strength, measures, skills), but from what I have seen I wouldn't pass on AP for Lynch, and I would consider the latter not a minor drop off in upside.
In AP's last game, he did not impress. Project off of that game, AP is not a first round pick or a first day pick fro that matter. Let's see how AP does in the combines.
9/2 ATT: 24 YDS: 139 YPC: 5.8 9/9 ATT: 32 YDS: 165 YPC: 5.2 9/16 ATT: 34 YDS: 211 YPC: 6.2 9/23 ATT: 27 YDS: 128 YPC: 4.7 10/7 ATT: 25 YDS: 109 YPC: 4.4 10/14 ATT: 26 YDS: 183 YPC: 7.0 Fiesta Bowl ATT: 20 YDS: 77 YPC: 3.9 His last game was by far his worst of the season. He was obviously rusty from coming off his injury.
This is the part that intrigues me. It could be argued that his college injuries, assuming he is fully recovered from them all (and all indications are that he is), were actually a blessing in disguise because, with all the time he missed, he wasn't on the field carrying the ball 40 times a game for 3 straight years. Perhaps this means he will have a longer career. Look at Maroney. Didn't he carry the ball like 40 times a game at UM? He's lucky he ended up in NE where he's not the featured back. I'm not sure how long his career would be if he ended up on a team that needed him to carry 20+ times a game.
Maroney had split carries with Marion Barber III until his last year, so his load was not great overall. I don't really buy the premise though. Some guys who carried a lot in college lasted long, others not. Some guys with college iunjury histories remain so, others have long NFL careers (Curtis Martin?). It is largely a crapshoot on NFL longevity--part ethic, part genes, part luck, and college bill of health is limited in its prediction--but if I am the Texans I am rolling with AP not crapping out.
i don't know, dude... i've admittedly seen very little of either; i can only go by the numbers, but they really don't back up your assertion much, if at all: [their two best seasons] ap: '04: 26.0 carries/game; 148.1 yds/game; 5.7 yds/carry; 1.15 TDs/game '06: 26.8 carries/game; 144.6 yds/game; 5.4 yds/carry; 1.71 TDs/game ml: '05: 19.6 carries/game; 124.6 yds/game; 6.4 yds/carry; 1.00 TDs/game '06: 17.2 carries/game; 104.3 yds/game; 6.1 yds/carry; 0.85 TDs/game i mean... it's really no contest - at least on paper. ap's #s look like the prototypical chain-moving, yard-churning back nfl personnel people dream about, while lynch's #s look more like a versatile back in the reggie bush mold with HR potential but who probably doesn't play every down. and i did leave off receiving stats (which greatly favored lynch), but only because, even lynch's best season receiving ('06) only added 25 yards a game, still well behind ap's rushing totals, though it did tack on 4 more scores, bringing him up to 1.15 TDs a game in '06. still, statistically, the overwhelmingly better player is ap. oh, i disagree - i would rate it as their BIGGEST need. the running game HAS to improve; somehow - better back, better line, better system - whatever; it MUST get better. and ap's junior season was every bit as good, statistically, as his freshman year. maybe not as dynamic, but... again, the #s are very nearly identical.
But you're not projecting off his last game, the guy just missed 7 games so he was probably rusty as hell. Despite injuries, AP is the best talent in this draft IMO. However, his injury history does worry me but if he is there at #8, I think it is a good enough risk to take. This guy probably would have been the #1 pick as a freshman and many projected him to be the #1 pick this season, he probably would have been if not for the broken collarbone.
www.nfldraftcountdown.com has it's 2nd round up now. http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/sub/mockround2.html They have 3 OT being drafted in the top of the 2nd and they all sound like ideal fits for the Texans zone blocking scheme. I think we should look to go LT in the 2nd. Tony Ugoh Height: 6-5 | Weight: 314 | 40-Time: 5.40 Strengths: Has excellent size...Very athletic with good quickness and agility... http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/scoutingreports/ot/tonyugoh.html Joe Staley Height: 6-5 | Weight: 300 | 40-Time: 4.75 Strengths: Is an amazing athlete for the position with feet that are second to none... http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/scoutingreports/ot/joestaley.html Ryan Harris Height: 6-5 | Weight: 292 | 40-Time: 5.20 Strengths: Very athletic with good quickness and agility...Extremely light on his feet... http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/scoutingreports/ot/ryanharris.html
Joe Staley Height: 6-5 | Weight: 300 | 40-Time: 4.75 Strengths: Is an amazing athlete for the position with feet that are second to none... http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/scoutingreports/ot/joestaley.html Staley sounds like a first round pick ...
Ugoh is a mid-1st-rounder at worst. He could step in and be a very good starting LT from day one. The only thing that goes against him is that he doesn't have a whole lot of potential yet. No matter, Joe Staley is a better fit for the Texans.
I'm really starting to like this Amobi Okoye DT out of Louisville. He's is supposedly really good at getting a good push and collapsing the pocket. 15 TFl and 8 sacks are really good numbers as well. He's only 20 years old and is already a very good player, furthermore, he has a TON of potential. He played as a 16 year old true freshman.
